GO WITH HOME TEAMS (WITH ONE EXCEPTION).

Byline: Norman Chad 

Homefield advantage, my friends, homefield advantage. You can't lose with it, you can't win without it. The NFL playoffs this weekend - with one notable exception - again will prove this weather-induced tradition.

Denver, Green Bay and Carolina all were unbeaten at home this season.

In fact, Denver, Green Bay and Carolina arguably have the biggest at-home edge in all of sport, due to atmospheric conditions.

The Broncos - 8-1 lifetime in the playoffs at home - play at altitude at Mile High Stadium that leaves visiting players short of breath.

The Packers - who have won 16 straight home games - play at very, very cold Lambeau Field, where the scent of Wisconsin cheddar in the air often throws off the opposition's pass routes.

The Panthers - who have never lost in their current home - play at Ericsson Stadium, where all 72,520 spectators (children included) smoke a pack of cigarettes per game, creating a hazy, nightclub ambience in which opposition players cough a lot.

Those are the facts; they are incontrovertible, indisputable and undeniable.

Now here's some opinion: Nobody goes into historic Ericsson Stadium and beats the Panthers. Nobody. Plus - and I must say this yet again to update those folks who are joining the season in progress - Carolina is Super Bowl-bound!

Meanwhile, the fourth team hosting a game this weekend, New England, doesn't have a homefield advantage because the Patriots really don't have a home field. There is God's green earth, and there is the Foxboro Stadium turf. The sod on that field is a disgrace. Who's the groundskeeper there, Weird Al Yankovic?

And although New England fans can be loud and rabid, they are, well, uh, - how shall we say? - somewhat wacked and not even sure if they're at a Patriots or Bruins game until they read the paper the next morning.

Here's one other note before we get down to the tough business of game analysis:

This postseason features several different ``coaching schools.'' There is the 49ers-trained coaching line - George Seifert, Mike Holmgren and Mike Shanahan. There is Bill Parcells and his disciple, Tom Coughlin. There is Bill Cowher and his former assistant, Dom Capers. And then there is the last of the independents, Mr. Barry Switzer, from a school of coaching that's one part Godzilla, one part Uncle Joe and two parts Texas crude.

As always, the following point-spread picks should not be used as the basis for any actual cash wager:

Cowboys (-3) at Panthers: There's a fine line between ``America's Team'' and ``America's Most Wanted.'' And let me tell you something, people - by phone, I personally spoke with more than 45,000 Americans this week, and only 19 of them claimed to be still rooting for the Cowboys. (Poll findings subject to margin of error of plus/minus 2 percent, due to coffee spilled in my notebook.)

We've all had it up to here with North Dallas Forty, a.k.a. North Dallas Five to Ten No Parole.

Incidentally, you can imagine my rage and fury upon seeing Carolina as an underdog this week. Nobody beats my Panthers in historic Ericsson Stadium. Nobody.

In addition, it must be pointed out - and I don't mean this as a criticism - but I've watched every Dallas game this season and don't recall Deion Sanders making a single tackle.

Anyway, this is how the game will go: My guy (John Kasay) will kick four field goals and their guy (Chris Boniol) will kick three field goals, which means . . . Panthers win! Panthers win! Panthers win! Pick: Panthers.

49ers at Packers (-5-1/2): How do you bet against San Francisco? Steve Young reminds me of Methuselah, who I saw play a number of years ago in the former CFL (Canaanite Football League). And, other than the old British Empire, the 49ers are the greatest road team in history.

But, excepting for the fact that Carolina is Super Bowl-bound, this is the Packers' year. Green Bay has become The Man's home away from home, and I have become fond of its tree-lined streets, its warm, small-town feel and its paper mills.

(Aside to Brett Favre: Lose the goatee. You look like Bob Denver in ``Dobie Gillis,'' for crying out loud.)

Key Factor: This game is starting at 9:30 a.m. Pacific time. The 49ers won't adjust well; nobody in California does anything before 11 on weekends. Pick: Packers.

Steelers at Patriots (-2-1/2): Where do you think I stand on Bill Cowher vs. Bill Parcells?

In recent NFL memory, no one appears to enjoy the entire specter of competition, the prospect of cold and snowy game conditions, the atmosphere of playoff football and just the act of being on the sideline more than Cowher does.

On the other hand, at any given moment Parcells appears to be midway through root canal.

In addition, the Steelers have a far better defense than the Patriots, who couldn't stop Urkel on an end-around. Pick: Steelers.

Jaguars at Broncos (-14): This Jacksonville jaunt to the Super Bowl has been a wonderful, improbable fairy tale. But, much like Roseanne and Tom Arnold, it must come to a sudden, ugly end. Pick: Broncos.

Last week: 3-1.

Season record: 122-118-2.

TODAY'S GAMES

SAN FRANCISCO (13-4) vs. GREEN BAY (13-3) 9:30 a.m., Channel 11

Line: Green Bay by 6.

Record vs. spread: 49ers 10-7; Packers 10-6.

Series record: 49ers lead series 25-23-1.

Last meeting: The Packers beat the visiting 49ers 23-20 in overtime in a Week 7 Monday night game.

Worth watching: The thermometer. Brett Favre is 17-0 in games played when the temperature is below freezing at Lambeau Field. San Francisco needs big games from QB Steve Young and WR Jerry Rice, who have not produced their usual seasons, to pull off the upset. 49ers coach George Seifert said Friday the decision on whether to start the sore-ribbed Young or backup Elvis Grbac may not be made until game day.

Key stats: Favre is the highest-rated third-down passer in the playoffs (93.6), with 12 touchdown passes and five interceptions. The 49ers defense has given up just four rushing touchdowns this season, but will have their hands full trying to contain Favre when he decides to scramble. ``Favre is so good at creating,'' said 49ers defensive coordinator Pete Caroll. ``It's like having to defend against two plays in one.''

Streaks, stats and notes: Packers have won 16 straight games at Lambeau Field and 26 of last 27, including playoffs. . . . Young is expected to start despite injuring his ribs on a touchdown run vs. Philadelphia in wild-card game last week. He has the second lowest interception percentage in playoff history (2.13). . . . DE Reggie White is the NFL's career sack leader with 165-1/2 on 62 different quarterbacks, but has never sacked Young. . . . San Francisco picked up its second shutout of 1996 last week and the team's second ever in the playoffs. . . . San Francisco has won four of its last five postseason games, outscoring opponents 145-69. . . . Favre is 50-27 lifetime as a starting quarterback. . . . Green Bay is the first club since the undefeated Dolphins in 1972 to lead the NFL in points scored (456) and fewest points allowed (210). . . . Rice is third on the NFL's career list with 18 postseason touchdowns, two behind running backs Emmitt Smith of Dallas and Thurman Thomas of Buffalo.

Outlook: Green Bay's stout defense, led by White and DB LeRoy Butler, can contain San Francisco's offense. A healthy Young is a threat, but this is where the 49ers' running game holds them back.

JACKSONVILLE (10-7) AT DENVER (13-3) 1 p.m., channel 4

Line: Denver by 14.

Record vs. spread: Jaguars 8-9; Broncos 9-6.

Series record: Broncos lead 1-0.

Last meeting: Broncos beat the Jaguars 31-23 at Mile High in December 1995.

Worth watching: A duel between two of the game's top passers. Denver's John Elway is on his way to the Hall of Fame and Jacksonville's Mark Brunell is the game's next star QB.

Key stats: The Broncos have converted 48.9 percent of their third down attempts, No. 1 in the NFL. Brunell has been sacked only once per 11.1 pass attempts, which ranks No. 27 in the league.

Streaks, stats and notes: Jacksonville RB Natrone Means has gained at least 100 yards on the ground in each of his last two games, and has two 100-yard postseason efforts in his career. Two of Means' 13 career games where he rushed for 100 yards or more have been against the Broncos. . . . Broncos' running back Terrell Davis led the AFC in rushing yards with 1,538. . . . The Jaguars have won six consecutive games, including the last five regular season contests. . . . Brunell's 4,367 yards in the regular season are 13th most in NFL history. His 396 yards rushing led all quarterbacks and were third best on the team. . . . Denver won the AFC West title for the eighth time in club history and posted its 20th winning season in the last 24. Denver, who will be home for entire playoffs, has reached the Super Bowl the last three times in which it held home-field advantage. . . . The Broncos are 8-1 in playoff games at Mile High and have won 18 of the last 21 contests played there overall. . . . Denver coach Mike Shanahan is making his first postseason appearance as a head coach. . . . Denver will send an AFC-high seven players to the Pro Bowl.

Outlook: The last time the Broncos played a game that meant anything, the Jaguars were 6-7 and needed plenty of help to make the playoffs. The Jaguars have been getting all the breaks, but only rust will keep the Broncos from winning easily. Elway, unlike his other playoff appearances, has a legitimate threat in the backfield in Davis to help open up the passing game. ``With us 13-3, if we lose this game, the whole season was basically for naught,'' Davis said Friday.

CAPTION(S):

2 Photos, Box

Photo: (1) FAVRE

(2) DAVIS

Box: TODAY'S GAMES (see text)