GIVE DERBY FLOPS ANOTHER CHANCE : RECENT HISTORY SAYS THEY'LL BOUNCE BACK IN THE PREAKNESS.

Byline: Kevin Modesti

The injuries to Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone and Derby favorite Unbridled's Song rob the Preakness of some appeal as a sports event. It looks good only by comparison to the following weekend's Indianapolis 500 among springtime spectacles this year.

As a handicapping challenge, though, the second leg of the thoroughbred Triple Crown loses only a little of its allure.

As always, after the Derby solves the mystery of how the fastest 3-year-olds from all corners of the map compare, the Preakness comes along two weeks later to pose a different and equally engaging question: Can the top Derby finishers duplicate their efforts on a different surface (Pimlico is reputed to be kinder to horses with early speed), at a shorter distance (1 3/16 miles instead of the Derby's 1-1/4 miles) and on less rest? Will the new circumstances help the Derby flops redeem themselves? Or will one of the ``fresh'' and ``local'' Maryland horses take advantage of the battle- and travel-weary stars?

The nicest thing about the Preakness puzzle is that over the past decade some broad clues to the solution have emerged. While the Derby has become the hardest major race to handicap - the 17 straight losing favorites attest to this - the Preakness has produced a couple of reliable patterns.

The best bets in the Preakness have come from two groups: 1) Horses whose odds are higher than they should be, and whose batteries may still be fully charged, after disappointingly dull efforts in the Derby; and 2) Derby graduates who raced closest to the pace early in that race, even if they couldn't sustain their runs in the long Churchill Downs stretch.

If you had made Preakness bets on every horse whose finish in the Derby was worse than the odds had forecast, you would have backed anywhere from one to four horses in each of the past 10 years and:

Cashed tickets to win, place or show in nine of the past 10 races.

Picked the past five Preakness winners and seven of the past 10: Timber Country (who paid $5.80 for a $2 bet to win) in 1995; Tabasco Cat ($9.20) in '94;Prairie Bayou ($6.40) in '93; Pine Bluff ($9) in '92; Hansel ($20.20) in '91; Risen Star ($15.60) in '88; and Snow Chief ($7.20) in '86.

Turned profits of 75 percent betting to win and 33 percent betting to show in those 10 years.

How about our second angle?

This is a little more complicated, but say you took all of the Derby runners, added their positions after one-quarter mile to their final positions, and made Preakness bets on the two horses with the lowest totals, provided they didn't tip their hands by actually winning the Derby? (For example, in '94, Tabasco Cat, fourth early and sixth at the finish in the Derby, and Go for Gin, a virtually wire-to-wire winner, had the lowest totals, but Go for Gin didn't merit a Preakness bet because of his Derby victory.)

You would have made bets in eight of the past 10 Preaknesses and:

Cashed tickets to win, place or show in five of those races.

Picked four winners: Tabasco Cat ($9.20); Pine Bluff ($9) in '92; Summer Squall ($6.80) in '90; Sunday Silence ($6.20) in '89; and Snow Chief ($7.20) in '86.

Turned a 24 percent profit betting to win.

Of course, this is all hindsight. The test of any handicapping angle is how it performs in the next race. So who looks good in Saturday's Preakness?

That would be easier to answer if Unbridled's Song weren't skipping the $500,000 race while his injured forefoot recovers.

Our first angle, the one that highlights Derby disappointments, ignores Derby runner-up Cavonnier, the likely Preakness favorite, and third-place Prince of Thieves, and points to Editor's Note, who finished sixth, and Skip Away, who finished 12th.

Editor's Note was half of the entry (with Grindstone) that went off as the nearly 6-1 third choice in the Derby (while Editor's Note was the solid third choice of 10 Daily Racing Form handicappers). Skip Away was the 7-1 sixth choice and would have been more popular (he was second in the Racing Form forecast) if the four entries had been uncoupled.

Our second angle, the one that rewards early speed, does point to Cavonnier, though he performed more like a stretch-runner in Louisville. He was running ninth in the 19-horse field after one-quarter mile and finished second. The only Derby horse with a better combination was Unbridled's Song - third early, fifth late.

In Unbridled's Song's absence, there may be no obvious way to play the Preakness this year.

But if Editor's Note and Skip Away (each 6-1 on the Pimlico morning line) bounce back with big efforts Saturday, they will not be surprises, merely following the trend.

MEMO: Staff Writer Kevin Modesti's horse racing column appears on Fridays.