GINGRICH WILL FACE HOUSE GOP.

Byline: David Hess Knight-Ridder Tribune News Wire

Tonight embattled House Speaker Newt Gingrich will stand before his Republican House colleagues in what is shaping up as a critical chapter in his meteoric and controversial political career.

That meeting of the 227-member GOP caucus, behind closed doors, will occur on the eve of a pivotal vote Tuesday in the newly convened 105th Congress on whether to re-elect him as speaker.

For the first time since a bipartisan ethics subcommittee found on Dec. 21 that he had violated House rules, Gingrich will look his partisans in the eye and explain why he thinks he should be re-elected.

Some of his colleagues, including Reps. Michael Forbes of New York and Matt Salmon of Arizona, have already suggested that he step aside as speaker until the entire ethics process plays out later this month.

``At the very least,'' Salmon, a Gingrich disciple in the last Congress, said, ``it may be prudent for the speaker to step aside at least temporarily until these issues are resolved.''

On ABC's ``This Week'' Sunday, Salmon added, ``Our agenda is too important to let any one man or any one person get in the way.''

Salmon also said that as of late Friday, Gingrich told him in a phone call that he had not ruled out stepping aside.

But Gingrich's staunchest supporters remain confident that he will address these doubts - and dispel them - at the caucus meeting.

``This is an important event for the speaker, but I don't think it's make-or-break,'' said Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif. ``I think he's going to be re-elected . . . and I'm certain he will make a very compelling argument for it.''

Gingrich stands accused by a special ethics investigative subcommittee of routing money through tax-exempt foundations for partisan political purposes, and then not telling investigators the truth about it.

In confessing to the ethical lapses, Gingrich has tarnished his carefully cultivated pose as upholder of Congress' political morals.

He rose to power, leading what his closest advisers say was a ``moribund party'' to control of the House after 40 years, largely on the strength of his message that Democrats were corrupt and unfit to rule.

Now his Democratic critics are saying his ethical misconduct makes him unfit to rule. And as many as two dozen Republicans are wondering if he has become a liability to the party's ambitious agenda. They are waiting to hear what he has to say about his admitted misbehavior.

Forbes, the only House Republican to state publicly that he will not vote for Gingrich, said on NBC's ``Meet the Press,'' ``If this were a secret ballot, I believe in my heart that, unfortunately for Newt, he would not be the speaker, but we would have these troubles behind us.''

Complicating Gingrich's effort to stay on as speaker is the fact that his Republican colleagues are being asked, in effect, to cast a vote for him in the blind. He is seeking to be seated again before ethics committee hearings get under way Thursday to decide on the appropriate penalty for his misconduct.

Those hearings are expected to shed more light on the details of the offenses he has admitted to, and they could prompt an even more contentious argument over his punishment.

The ethics committee is authorized by the House to recommend from among several degrees of punishment, ranging from mild reprimands to censure to expulsion. The full House itself must vote on the committee's recommendation and has invariably followed it.

No one expects Gingrich to be expelled. But a censure - which also seems unlikely - would bar him, under party rules, from retaining his leadership post. And a harsh reprimand, accompanied by a stiff fine, which is quite possible, could spark a nasty debate over whether his moral authority had been compromised.

A number of Republican members, moderates and conservatives alike, bridle at the prospect of casting a vote for Gingrich on Tuesday before they know what the ethics panel will recommend - and before they have a chance to peruse the investigative file in the case.

Speaking on CBS's ``Face the Nation,'' House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, on Sunday refused to answer questions about whether Gingrich had struck a deal with the ethics committee that would allow him to retain his speakership.

``I do not know what the details of the relationship'' are between the speaker and the committee, Armey said. ``The speaker and I have not discussed the details. . . . I don't ask what is not in fact my business.''

Gingrich already has apologized to the ethics subcommittee for submitting ``inaccurate, incomplete and unreliable'' information to it, insisting that he did not intend to mislead it.

The vast majority of House Republicans already appear to have made up their minds about Gingrich. They have said that, barring any new disclosures, they are prepared to vote for him Tuesday. In general, they are convinced that his missteps were minor offenses and not willful violations.

``These were unintentional mistakes,'' Dreier said. ``What he did is worthy of a reprimand, and the whole thing is unfortunate, but it doesn't disqualify him to serve as speaker.''

No matter how Tuesday's vote goes, the issue will not end for Gingrich. Rep. David Bonior, D-Mich., a leader of efforts to unseat Gingrich, made it clear that he and other Democrats do not intend to drop their ethics campaign against him.

Pointing out on ``Meet the Press'' that only two of the three ethics charges filed against Gingrich have been resolved so far, Bonior predicted Gingrich would lose his speakership before the year's end.

``The fact of the matter is, the speaker lied and he got caught,'' Bonior said.

It would take only 20 Republican defections to stymie Gingrich, even temporarily, from becoming the first GOP speaker in 70 years to be re-elected. That's close enough to a possibility that he and his House leadership team have spent the last two weeks in a strenuous campaign to shore up party support for his re-election.