GETTING PROFIT AT FAIRPLEX.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI HORSE RACING 

When it comes to front-running horses at Fairplex Park, you can't often beat them, so you have to bet on them.

In the first five days of this L.A. County Fair season, 40 percent of the races were won by the early leader, usually at a short price. The 73-year-old Pomona track's sharp turns and short homestretch continue to make passing difficult.

Call it monotonous or call it a refreshingly unique feature of racing on a five-eighths-mile oval. Any fan's strategy for survival must embrace the eternal verity that early-speed horses generally do better at the fair than at the region's bigger tracks.

Look at the following numbers comparing front-running horses' performances in the first five days at Fairplex and the last five days at the Del Mar meet that closed Sept. 6. At Fairplex, the front-runners' typical finish in all races between 6 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles has been second (the median is 2, the average 2.95). At Del Mar, the typical finish is third (the median is 3, the average 3.84). So, other things being equal, Fairplex's front-runners are finishing one place better than Del Mar's -- a small but crucial difference, any horseplayer will agree.

Is it possible to construct a simple handicapping strategy to profit from the front-runners' reliable success, or at least to use the typically well-bet speedsters to stay alive in pick-threes, fours and sixes?

Here's a three-step framework, relying on basic data from the Daily Racing Form:

Consider horses who made their last starts at Del Mar in main-track sprints.

Of those, consider horses who ran well in their last starts, finishing third or better or earning a Beyer speed figure that rates best or second-best among today's opponents.

Of those -- here's the key rule -- consider horses who set or ran close to the pace in their last starts, racing within one length of the lead in the first half-mile.

So how would our little system do in pari-mutuel competition? Since I began testing it Monday, the results have been more than encouraging (and what else would you expect, because horse-racing writers never mention the angles that quickly burn through a bankroll).

Monday: Three horses came out of strong early-speed showings at Del Mar. Catblewbyu (third race) won and paid $2.80. Britt's Jules (fifth) won and paid $6.20. And Classy Coed (sixth) won and paid $4.

Wednesday (there was no racing Tuesday): Ten horses met our standards. Afleet Spy (third) won and paid $3.40. Nicky Santoro (fifth) won and paid $5.60 while, in the same race, Jewels of Bagdad finished third. Afleet Misty (seventh) finished fourth. Hot Off the Bench (eighth) won and paid $3. Spark of Dubai (10th) won and paid $7 while, in the same race, Stella's Posada, Hurry Up Austin and Yes Talk to Me finished second, fourth and seventh. And Ride Aly Ride (11th) won and paid $5.20.

Thursday: Two horses qualified for bets, both in the eighth race. Schusky's Echo finished second, nipped at the wire after a troubled early trip, and Sweet Forever finished off the board.

Though the payoffs are small, that's a consequence of using horses coming from a classy local track with good form and attractive styles. Besides, those were the only payoffs they were handing out.

The great news is that, in three days this week, our angle produced eight winners from 15 horses (53 percent) in 10 races (80 percent). The total return, if you'd bet $2 per horse to win, is $37.20 on a $30 investment and a 24 percent profit.

heymodesti(AT_SIGN)aol.com

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- Kevin Modesti