GCC States, After Post-Saddam Iraq, Face Salafi Terrorism Spreading South.

*** In Sharjah The Salafi Movement Is Said To Get Much Financing From The Bani Jiluwis - A Branch Of The Saudi Royal Family - Who Have Imposed Strict Islamic Rules On The Emirate - In Return For Funding Many Commercial & Real-Estate Projects There

*** The Kuwaiti Problem Is More Complicated As Salafi MPs Are Trying To Target The Shiites, Thus Getting Close To Causing Sectarian War

*** OPEC Will Keep Defending WTI At More Than $35/B, Says UAE Energy Minister Hamili

KUWAIT - All the six Arab Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states will be facing the threat of Salafi terrorism, with militants spreading south from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. There are Salafi sleepers in each of Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Oman, as well as in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. There are Salafi sleepers in Syria and Lebanon as well as in other Arab countries. The Salafi militants not only want Western forces out of the Muslim world but have shown determination to change the current regimes in this region.

Kuwait has to protect US forces on its soil from these militants while, at the same time, it is under American protection. The same is true in the case of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. And, according to a highly placed APS source in Kuwait, soon it will be the turn of Qatar where the main US base for Middle East operations is located.

The Salafis are extremely fanatic Sunni militants motivated by neo-Islamic belief propagated by Sayyid Qutub, a radical Muslim Brotherhood (MB) militant in Egypt executed in 1966 by the then president, Gamal Abdel Nasser. Qutub remains enomously influential in the Muslim world and is largely responsible for the rise of Osama Bin Laden and the latter's Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden's No. 2 in Al-Qaeda, Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri who is an Egyptian medical doctor having emerged from MB ranks, is a staunch Qutubist.

Jihad (Islamic holy war), Qutub taught, could bring about the circumstances that would allow the restoration of the universal Caliphate (hence Nasser's hostility) and the "subordination of the infidels" (non-Muslims) to a new Sunni empire. Salafis, mainly including Wahhabis, learn extremely strict but strangely applied piety and self-sacrifice, including if necessary self-sacrifice for suicidal combat.

These beliefs - effectively more sectarian than religious - make the anti-Western forces in Iraq so difficult for the US to deal with. Placing no value on their own lives, or the lives of those they revile, they are not susceptible to the usual methods of military control employed by Westerners, who presume that survival in combat is as important to their enemies as it is to themselves (see overleaf).

The APS source warns that, if the Baathist regime of Syria is truly aiding fellow Iraqi Baathists of Saddam, then the Salafi threat can emerge in Damascus, Aleppo, Hama and other Syrian cities at any time soon (see survey of Syria in this week's Diplomat Package in fap1bSyriaLebJan24-05).

In the UAE, Salafi sleepers are said to be present particularly in Sharjah and to a certain extent in Dubai. Some members of the ruling families there are said to be prominent among backers of the Salafi movement (see Abu Dhabi who's who in this week's APS Review).

The Salafi threat in Kuwait has been detected since mid-December, when its intelligence indicated that the militancy had infiltrated the Kuwaiti armed forces. This was confirmed recently as security forces arrested a group of Kuwaiti soldiers suspected of plotting attacks against US troops. Some of those arrested were high-ranking officers. Since the mid-1990s many young Salafis had joined the military academy and have since risen to higher ranks. The same has occurred in Saudi Arabia, where radical Wahhabi members of or sympathisers with Al-Qaeda have also infiltrated the police forces, some border guard units and the National Guards - as well as the regular Saudi armed forces.

The problem in Kuwait is more complicated than the one in Saudi Arabia as Salafi members of the National Assembly have tried to target the Shiite community in the emirate for attack. An early development of what could have triggered a sectarian strife was averted recently with the resignation of a Shiite minister before he was to be grilled by Salafi MPs having become more determined to pursue their radical agenda in Kuwait.

Like the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the Salafis in Kuwait and other Arab countries are affiliated with Al-Qaeda and with those in Iraq - like Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi's group of suicide bombers and decapitators. In an article published on Jan. 20, John Keegan, the defence editor of the Daily Telegraph, wrote: "Since the American leaders particularly the neo-conservatives who inaugurated the war took it for granted that Western-style politics would readily take root in Iraq, if offered as an alternative to Saddam's dictatorship once overthrown. Religious terrorism baffles their approach. Yet not altogether. Neo-Islamists are a minority, even in the most pious Muslim countries, and few Muslims, however devout, wish to die as suicide fighters".

The Kuwaiti Problem: Kuwait's Shiite minister of information, Mohamed Abul Hassan, resigned on Jan. 2 "to safeguard national unity" a day before he was to be grilled by three Salafi MPs for "failing to protect the values and morals of Kuwaiti society" by allowing Western-style music concerts and thus violating the Salafi interpretation of Sharia (Islamic law). Abul Hassan said in a letter: "I hereby tender my resignation...not to avoid national duty and not in fear of political questioning but rather to shield my nation from plunging into quarrels and political bickering". Later Waleed Al-Tabataba'i, a key Salafi MP, accused Abul Hassan of "running away from political responsibility" by resigning.

The three MPs, Tabataba'i, Faisal Al-Muslim and Awad Barad, wanted to question the minister over "matters that contravene Islam". Their focus was not only on the concerts but mainly on books which they saw as being anti-Islamic. Abul Hassan tried in vain to appease them by intro-ducing 13 constraints to ensure that any concert held would be "compatible" with Islamic norms. Yet, his efforts were not good enough to the Salafis. As one veteran and liberal MP then said: "You budge an inch, they ask for a metre, you give them a metre, they ask for a mile".

Abul Hassan was to stand on a podium facing those wishing to question him. The interpellation was to begin with the questioners explaining when, where and how they believed the minister had violated the Sharia. Abul Hassan was to be given a chance to explain his position. Two MPs were then to speak in support of the minister, followed by two who were to speak against him. After the questioning and statements, ten MPs who could not include those that originally submitted the case for the grilling were to present a petition for a vote of no confidence against the minister. At least 51% of the MPs present were to vote in favour of the no-confidence motion in order for the minister to be forced to step down. There would have been a serious sectarian crisis as the Shiites in Kuwait were anticipating physical attacks by Salafi militants.

(Since the constitution of Kuwait was issued in 1962, many such interpellations have been conducted, although none has succeeded. Ministers have always managed to survive, albeit sometimes by a single vote. This was to be the second such grilling of an information minister, the first having been that of Shaikh Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah in 1998. Shaikh Saud had exempted all books from censorship prior to an annual Kuwait book fair, defending his policy in an historic standoff with the Salafi MPs. A subsequent motion for a vote of no confidence was nevertheless put before the plenary. A few days later, before the vote was to take place, a cabinet reshuffle made Saud minister of oil instead of information; the motion was killed).

Salafi attacks against Americans occurred in the past in Kuwait. But most Kuwaitis did not realise terrorism had truly hit home until Jan. 10, when a militant and two policemen were killed in a shootout in Hawalli, a suburb of Kuwait City, as police approached men trying to return a rented car. The slain man, Fawwaz Tlaiq Al-Otaibi, was planning to attack Westerners.

Another shootout erupted on Jan. 15 near the Saudi border as police tried to arrest a suspected cell with one of its members involved in the Jan. 10 clash. A Saudi suspect was killed and two policemen were injured. The cabinet called the violence terrorism, the same definition it made when Salafi militants opposed to the US military presence in Kuwait killed a Marine and a US civilian in attacks since late 2002. Scores of Kuwaiti militants have fought alongside Wahhabi and other Sunni militants in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya and now in Iraq. Salafi MPs verbally attacked the US-led invasion of Iraq, saying the invaders were killing Muslims. Press reports and postings on Islamic websites have said many Kuwaiti extremists had gone to Iraq to fight US-led troops. Many Kuwaitis remain grateful to the US for ousting then Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from their country in the 1991 Gulf War.

Kuwait's security forces have been on full alert since Jan. 16 after raiding a suspected militant cell that included Saudi citizens in a deadly shootout near a US base and the emirate's oil industry. Security was raised to "the maximum" around oil facilities.

One Saudi gunman was killed and two Kuwaiti security officers were wounded in a Jan. 15 shootout as police continued a manhunt for suspects who managed to flee. Two of the suspects were Saudis who escaped in stolen cars.

Wahhabi militants fleeing tough measures in Saudi Arabia and Kuwaiti Salafis fresh from fighting US troops in Falluja, western Iraq, were at the heart of recent attacks in Kuwait.

A wave of bombings and shootings carried out by Al-Qaeda militants in Saudi Arabia have left more 100 people killed and hundreds more wounded since May 2003 in the kingdom. A crack down by security forces caused Saudi militants to flee to Kuwait; but the Saudi authorities gave the information to their Kuwaiti counterparts. Now there is full co-ordination between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Three Kuwaitis were also arrested in the Jan. 15 battle, which erupted after special forces backed by armoured vehicles and helicopters stormed a house in Umm Al-Haiman, 70 km south of Kuwait City. Umm Al-Haiman, 30 km from the Saudi border, is only a few km from Arifjan, which houses the largest US military base in Kuwait. The area lies in the heart of Kuwait's oil industry where refineries, petrochemical industries, export terminals and pipeline networks are located.

Bin Laden last month ordered his followers to target oil installations in the Gulf and Iraq. Large quantities of arms, ammunition and explosives were seized on Jan. 15. This, following information from the Saudi government's side, confirmed that Kuwait's Salafis intended to stage big operations in Umm Al-Haiman's oil installations as well as the Arifjan military base.

Security men are to "be ready at all times to carry out missions...and to deal with any incident", said Interior Ministry Under-secretary Gen. Nasser Al-Othman. He ordered all forces to "be supplied with arms, ammunition, field uniforms and other equipment...and that approved engagement rules be observed... Security forces have not stopped their campaign and raids on suspected hideouts since last Monday's (Jan. 10) gunfight in Hawalli".

Al-Qabas newspaper last week said "initial confessions by suspects indicated they were plotting to assassinate state officials, blow up vital installations and attack US targets and forces". The head of parliament's Foreign Relations Committee, liberal MP Mohammed Al-Sagr, blamed the "policies of the weak government" for a rise of Salafi "terrorists" in Kuwait. Eight Islamic organisations condemned the "shedding of innocent people's blood" and called for "an iron fist" to strike those who tried to destabilise Kuwait. Interior Minister Shaikh Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah on Jan. 17 told reporters after briefing a parliamentary committee on the security situation: "In the two incidents between 10 and 15 people, Kuwaitis and Saudis, were arrested".

A hitherto unknown group, Mujahedeen Kuwait, claimed responsibility for the attacks via an Islamist website, alleging it had killed four Kuwaitis, three Americans and a South Korean soldier. The US Embassy had warned Americans on Dec. 15 to "maintain a high level of security awareness".

An interior ministry spokesman in Riyadh said Saudi authorities in the previous week arrested a Saudi suspected of links to the deadly shootout. Earlier the Interior Ministry said security forces had recovered 349 hand grenades and 349 detonators buried near a deserted garden in Sabahiya district, some 40 km south of Kuwait City. The find came in a major raid by special forces carried out in response to a tip-off from suspects in custody, the ministry said. The commander of Kuwait's National Guard, Shaikh Salem Al-Ali Al-Sabah told the Saudi daily Okaz the suspects were members of Al-Qaeda. He added: "The plots, targeting state security agency headquarters and oil facilities, were planned by a terrorist group that belongs to Al-Qaeda. Its leader and two of its members, all Kuwaitis, were arrested". The arrests enabled security forces to raid the terrorist cell in Umm Al-Haiman. The security forces also recovered a recording of a long telephone conversation between one of the detained suspects and Al-Qaeda spokesman Suleiman Abu Ghaith, whose Kuwaiti citizenship was withdrawn in 2001, Shaikh Salem said, adding that security forces were hunting 15 militants who fled after the Hawalli and Umm Al-Haiman battles.

Kuwait's liberal politicians have long clashed with Salafis, who have great influence in parliament. Over the past years the government tried to avoid a confrontation with Salafis and used them as a counterweight against liberals demanding more democracy. Now the political regime and Kuwait have become targets of extremism. Ahmad al-Rubei'e, a liberal and a former MP, has called for a crackdown on the Salafis. Rubei'e said: "What is needed now is banning all unlicenced religious activities, banning (the soliciting of) every dinar without knowing where it goes, and taking back mosques from Islamist groups". Liberals have always said it is the Salafis' strict interpretations of the Qur'an that have created intolerance and extremism. Columnist Saleh Al-Shayeji said in Al-Anba daily Salafis could not "suddenly turn into angels talking about religious moderation". Al-Rubei'e called them hypocrites trying to regain influence after the recent clashes. There are also signs that Kuwaitis have begun to question extremism. Tlaiq Al-Otaibi, the father of the militant killed in the Jan. 10 shootout, said in a statement he had informed authorities about his son's suspicious activities, and urged others to do the same.

Kuwaiti Justice Minister Ahmad Baqer on Jan. 19 said persons instigating crimes of terror are partners in the crime and are punishable under the law from 15 years in jail to the death sentence. Responding to criticism by several politicians that Kuwait's Penal Code did not include definitive anti-terror laws, Baqer said: "Terror crimes, including possession of arms and explosives with the intent to kill, are punishable under the law with the death penalty". However, he said the judiciary alone retains the right to label any given person or party with inciting or propagating terrorism. He said scholars or theologians who explain what is lawful or unlawful according to the Sharia cannot be classified as instigating violence or hatred. He said: "Persons who encourage people to stockpile weapons and explosives and encourage armed confrontation through dangerous Fatwas (edicts) which openly accuse Arab and Muslim rulers and their societies as infidels are abettors in the crime".

Kuwait is at a crossroads politically, socially and economically and the choices women make "will either take us vibrantly forward or leave us stagnant with the present status quo", said the first woman to be elected chief of the Kuwait Economic Society, Rula Al-Dashti. She believes the current upsurge of Salafism should be considered positive because it is a wake-up call for all Kuwaitis to denounce the actions and the people perpetrating it as Kuwaitis by nature believe in tolerance and dialogue and abhor violence. She said: "Kuwaiti society has evolved over the years by the vibrant imprints left by generations of different nationalities who have lived, worked and contributed to the development of the country. Our security situation, however, did not allow this vibrancy to move forward. Our national obsession with security has evolved into a tug of war between liberalism and extremism with the country not really moving either way. In the worst case, extremism will spread its tentacles, the economy will see fewer mega projects in the petroleum industry, there will be very minor changes in social policy and the country will see an increase in social problems like crime and a rise in divorce rates".

On Jan. 20 Dashti was quoted as saying: "The most exciting challenge is to work with the government to have the Women's Rights Bill passed this year. The biggest hurdle is to get the Bill which is currently with the National Assembly's Interior Committee to the floor for open discussion and then get Kuwaiti women their full political rights". She has fought hard to achieve women's rights, a subject "very close to my heart". She was the first woman to fight the election law as unconstitutional twice, but her case was thrown out of the lower courts on technical grounds in 2000 and 2004. She also looks forward to having Kuwaiti women in the executive decision making process, saying: "This is a challenging activity for women and it has to be worked out. Women must become active members of the country's labour force and take full part in the economic openness that the government is so keen on. The education, experience, skills and the energy of Kuwaiti women must be utilised to help Kuwait make the transition from a consumptive society to a productive one". She believes it is time for the government to become a supervisor instead of provider and that unemployment among Kuwaitis will soon become the greatest social challenge.

She said: "If the status quo continues we will see a lot more [Islamic] extremism than we are seeing currently. Our society has to become more cohesive. The young of today are our future and we see a lot of them taking the path of self-destruction either through drugs or extremist thought. Many of them are disconnected from mainstream Kuwaiti society and I believe what will help is not just access to education but quality of education which will create an environment that energises them to look to the future positively".

The Salafi politicians believe books containing "blasphemous" and "anti-Islamic" texts should be officially barred from Kuwait, a demand which in itself is a contravention of basic civil rights and liberties as well as common sense. Their have in effect been rendered moot by the technology revolution in telecommunications. All types of books and printed material can be accessed through the internet, making the very notion of censorship pathetic.

Ahmad Bishara, a leading liberal figure and a writer in Al-Qabas recently said of the Salafi law-makers: "The MPs have appointed themselves as guardians over peoples' lives and a veil over their brains". Bishara was concerned that the Salafis may try again to trigger an open Shiite-Sunni conflict in the emirate.

Many expect strains to develop in relations between the parliament and the government, while others are worried that the tension may mutate into hostilities between the Sunnis and Shiites. Still others expect the National Assembly to be dissolved, should things get out of hand.

Interior Minister Shaikh Nawaf said tight security measures will guarantee that none of the Salafi perpetrators will escape from the country. National Guard Commander Shaikh Salem Al Ali said: "The fugitives wanted by the Kuwait's security forces are targeting country's stability". He said about 10,000 national guards were deployed for security in vital installations and embassies all around Kuwait.

Out of the nine Salafi militants who were involved in attacks other than Fawaz Al Otaibi, one was a soldier with the Ministry of Defence, four were Bidoons (men without a citizenship) and one was a Saudi. Security men said they found Otaibi's mobile phone and used the numbers in it to arrest the extremists. Al-Qabas newspaper said Otaibi was an employee of the Ministry of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs and three of his Bidoon friends belonged to a Salafi group called Takfir Wal Hijra. It also said these young men met regularly at a mosque in Jahra. The imam of the mosque was fired by the Ministry of Awqaf because of his extremist ideas and his frequent visits to Iraq.

Earlier this month the authorities arrested a leading Al-Qaeda suspect, Mohsen Al Fadli, accused of enlisting youths to attack US forces in Iraq. Fadli, hunted by state security since August for allegedly supporting Bin Laden is being interrogated.

The Ministry of Education has established extra curricular awareness programmes in all schools to protect students from the Salafi teachings even as the council of ministers has approved KD 5.5m for an Islamic Affairs Committee to fight extremist indoctrination of the young.

In a speech at the opening of a seminar entitled: "National Document for Family and Consumer Education", Haifa Al-Ojairi, chairwoman of the committee charged with readying the document, said its main aim was "social reform at the national level through improving the quality of life and providing young Kuwaitis with skills that enable them to face all of life's challenges". She said the curriculum focuses on making the family the core of society, job and financial responsibilities and getting rid of unhealthy habits".

The Ministry of Education has since the beginning of the current scholastic year revised and updated curricula in the country's schools especially in Arabic language and religious studies text books. The revisions have included the importance of tolerance and dialogue rather than armed confrontation and disrespect for other viewpoints. The ministry monitors teachers to ensure the right message is being taught. At least 10 articles from Arabic language text books for high school students pertaining to jihad and the need for armed conflict were deleted from text books in an attempt to eradicate the dangers of extremism.

The Minister of Awqaf and Islamic Affairs Abdullah Al-Maatouq said he had earlier requested the Education Ministry to include respect for other opinions in school books. The KD5.5m will fund a three-year plan by the Islamic Affairs Committee, headed by Maatouq. The high profile committee was formed in August after a number of Kuwaitis were arrested for attempting to lure youngsters into jihad in Iraq. At the committee's second meeting recently, Maatouq said: "We have formed two special teams to combat extremism and to protect our young from delinquency". The two teams are specialised in psychology, education and Islamic affairs and their goal is to enlighten the young generation on the dangers of extremism. Maatouq also said: "Most of the country's extremists meet in secret locations like live-stock pens and farms and do not consult with [moderate] Islamic scholars".