GAY RIGHTS ISSUE MAY SWING VOTES EXPERTS SPLIT ON ELECTION.

Byline: Lisa Friedman Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - The war in Iraq and the economy at home have emerged as the central issues in the 2004 presidential election, but political experts say the ongoing gay marriage debate could swing large numbers of voters on either side.

Few analysts said the controversy over same-sex unions would be a deciding factor for most voters in California or the nation. But, they said, as President George W. Bush and presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry duke it out over weapons of mass destruction and the national deficit, gay marriage looms large in the background.

``It might not get as much attention as the war or the economy, but it has the potential to affect a lot of votes,'' said California GOP consultant Dan Schnur.

Both parties, however, seem to hope that prediction is true.

In calling for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman, President Bush delighted his conservative base.

Kerry, meanwhile, opposes a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, supports civil unions that can provide same-sex couples the same legal protections that married spouses enjoy and voted against the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act. He has said he believes the issue of marriages should be left to the states.

While analysts note that Bush's firm stand in favor of traditional marriage is likely to help him with Republican voters, it remains unclear if the position will get him any votes he didn't already have.

That appears particularly true in California, where a recent Field Poll found 50 percent of those polled disapprove of same-sex marriage. At the same time, 54 percent opposed the constitutional amendment banning such unions.

``Nationwide, (raising the gay marriage issue) will probably be a net positive for President Bush. In California, it will probably be a wash, or a net negative,'' said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.

``It's not going to win the state of California for George Bush,'' added Bruce Cain, political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Republican pundits, however, noted that a third of Californians said they still favored the constitutional ban.

``We used to call them 'Reagan Democrats,' '' Schnur said. ``If you factor out the Bay Area, which has a very unique set of positions on this issue, Californians are no different than the rest of America.

``It's an issue that motivates both parties' bases more than the political center, but there are a lot of culturally conservative Democrats who have voted for Republicans over the years when faced with this type of choice.''

Schnur alone said he believed the gay marriage issue had the potential to swing California votes to Bush.

``Just as the abortion issue has separated the base of the Republican Party from the political center, the issue of same-sex marriage has the potential to do the same to Democrats,'' he said.

With the California Supreme Court temporarily halting same-sex weddings in San Francisco until it decides whether they are legal and the GOP-led U.S. Congress gearing up for hearings on how best to write a constitutional amendment forbidding them forever, those fighting the gay marriage debate have found little room to compromise.

But whether it will overshadow other national issues remains to be seen.

Los Angeles GOP consultant Alan Hoffenblum said he doubted it would become a litmus-test issue in California or any place else.

``Like anything else, it's a factor in people's decisions, but not necessarily the overriding factor,'' Hoffenblum said.

``The bottom line is, the November presidential election will be a referendum on George W. Bush, and it's a long time between now and November,'' he said. ``If George W. Bush and John Kerry are doing nothing but talking about gay marriages in November, the war must be going good and the economy must be humming.''

Added Pitney, ``Gay marriage comes into play only if there aren't any major developments on the economy or the war. If either situation gets notably better or worse, they'll be at the top of the agenda and not gay marriage.''

Lisa Friedman, [phone]

lisa.friedman(at)langnews.com