Future U.S. program trends: off-net, different daypart goals.

This past June, NATPE International presented a seminar at the PROMAX & BDA Conference titled "Predicting Future Program Trends. " Video Age spoke with some of the panelists to get their predictions on what the future might hold for program genres, time slots and production.

As panelist Jack Fentress put it, "Since the conference, the whole world has changed." Indeed it has. Regulatory agency the FCC recently voted to repeal the Prime Time Access Rule (PTAR), which prohibited networks from programming more than three hours of primetime nightly and their affiliates in the top 50 markets (cities) from airing reruns in the hour before primetime known as access. The FCC also relaxed the so-called "fin-syn" regulations, allowing U.S. networks to own and distribute their own programming. Compounding these regulatory changes are the ever-changing tastes and decreasing attention spans of viewers as well as media mergers and technological advances. No one said predicting the future was easy.

Since PTAR regulations will officially be abolished on August 30, 1996, Fentress, vp and director of Programming for station rep firm Petry National TV, said that the earliest one would see any changes in the top 50 markets would be 1997. Most of the half-hour first-run access series (shows made for syndication) have already been sold to affiliates in these markets through 1997 or 1998. While many network affiliates have long-term commitments for first-run programming, some syndication executives feel that the demise of PTAR will add at least one more bidder for off-network product (reruns) in each market. Analysts also believe that first-run syndicators will not be affected by PTAR in the next two years but will definitely feel the squeeze once more reruns get onto the networks' schedules in 1997 and 1998. However, according to Paul Krumins, president of Copley Entertainment, Inc., first-run will always remain attractive to stations due to the "risk-reward ratio of owning equity in a show." Fentress predicted that there will be more reruns (sitcoms), which were prohibited before PTAR, on the traditional affiliated stations, as well as some movement of first-run product. Paul Lenburg, executive vp of ASI Market Research, acknowledged that there are certain genres for certain time periods but doesn't foresee in the future any particular genre being stronger than another. In fact, Lenburg commented that "it is difficult to focus on genres, because in actuality viewers don't describe shows by genre, just people in the business do."

Because indies are not going to pay the same rates as networks, Fentress said that there will probably be a price increase in reruns and a small reduction in price for first-run product that has to move to other stations. "For syndicators," Fentress remarked, "it is a win-win situation, since indies may want to keep their existing demographics from the successful programs that are already on." Indies, however, argue that they will be shut out of the bidding for top off-network fare.

According to a new study by media investment bank Veronis, Suhler, advertising spending will continue to grow in the coming years. Krumins said that in the near future advertisers will have more influence on program production and more power to promote their brands and brand loyalty. "We will see more ad consortiums that will pick the shows that go on the air. Advertisers will negotiate the CPM [cost per thousand] and will be more involved in picking shows." Krumins went so far as to say that there will be sponsored half-hours and time buys to pay not only for the show but for the time to play it. "You'll have to buy your way in," he commented.

Lenburg agreed: "Program content will increase from 21 minutes to 27 minutes because of ad consortiums. More brand equity will surface as advertisers have a better platform to promote their product, which in turn will result in better programs." However, Fentress doesn't think that advertisers will have much to do with production. "It doesn't make any sense. Look at NYPD Blue. Advertisers had an undue influence on that show; the show wouldn't have seen the light if it relied on advertisers," he commented.

Lenburg also predicted that more station groups, like New World Television, will get involved in programming. Recently NBC stations struck a deal with New World to develop a first-run show for the lucrative access period in fall 1996. Krumins quipped, "Time periods will be hard to come by because of the New World deal. They make you think they control the last half-hour." However, if the deal falls through, another half-hour could become available on the NBC stations in Los Angeles and New York.

According to Lenburg, major trends to look for in the next five years include networks capturing different program dayparts to attract larger proportions of viewers and networks increasing compatibility of shows by creating a "seamless" flow from the credits of one show to the next. "Verisimilitude will be of utmost importance in program content; a program must offer the viewer the appearance of acceptable reality," Lenburg concluded.