Fuelling Change.

Just as changes in energy use have been influenced by technological change and other social, economic, and environmental forces in the last century, resource limits may push the world away from fossil fuels in the coming decades

Today is still the golden age of fossil fuels; coal and oil alone account for 52% of world energy use -- 30% oil, 22% coal. But, many experts say we're entering the golden age of natural gas, a very low carbon fuel. Today, almost a quarter of world energy use is fuelled by natural gas. The big plus for natural gas, says the Canadian Gas Association, is that it's environmentally preferable because it's clean burning. Burning gas, on average, produces only about a third of the carbon dioxide per unit of energy of coal, and about two-thirds that of oil.

Natural gas is transported, usually by pipelines, to customers who burn it for fuel or, in some cases, make petrochemicals from it. It competes with oil as a heating fuel for homes, offices, factories, and industrial processes.

Natural gas reserves are diminishing, but some recent reports suggest that it's more abundant than previously thought. There's a mini-boom in the Northwest Territories as oil companies prepare to explore for massive pools of natural gas. Analysts say Canada's North holds the same promise of untapped reserves that Alberta did 50 years ago, around the time the first major oil strike took place at Leduc in 1947. One of the most productive natural gas wells ever found in Canada was recently discovered near the northern hamlet of Fort Liard, NWT, population 600. Northern exploration stopped in the 1980s when the drop in energy prices made it too expensive, but now large oil and gas companies are thinking seriously about pumping gas from huge pools discovered two decades ago near the Arctic Ocean. The North is the last untapped frontier for natural gas in the country.

The price of natural gas reached its 15-year peak by summer 1999, at double the price of a year earlier. While it's considered a good, clean alternative to oil, like all fossil fuels, natural gas is non-renewable, so we still need to look beyond it.

And, when we look beyond' fossil fuels, what do we see?

Some experts say we may be on the brink of hydrogen-based fuel sources. There is an enormous amount of interest in fuel cells. Royal Dutch/Shell has a division called Shell Hydrogen. Don Huberts works for Shell Hydrogen. Mr. Huberts, his employer, and some seriously wealthy energy conglomerates are becoming more and more interested in hydrogen as a fuel source. In fact, Mr. Huberts thinks fuel cells will soon begin replacing power stations and cars that mostly burn coal, oil, or natural gas. As The Economist remarked in July 1999: "Now that the energy business (including oil companies, car makers, and power-engineering firms) thinks that fuel cells are coming, they probably will."

Iceland is hoping to be the first country in the world to create a "hydrogen economy" within the next two decades. Its most abundant resource is water and energy analysts think the country could become one of the world's "energy sheiks" by the middle of the century, according to an article in New Scientist. Iceland already gets much of its electricity from hydro-electric power, and it uses geothermal energy from hot volcanic rocks to heat its buildings. It's also planning to run its cars on hydrogen instead of gasoline: hydrogen is liquefied, and fed to fuel cells that power electrically driven buses, trucks, and cars, for example. Along with DaimlerChrysler, and others in the fuel-cell business, Iceland agreed to conduct a countrywide experiment in February 1999. Other partners include Shell, which opened its first hydrogen filling station in Hamburg, Germany in January 1999; the Norwegian hydroelectric company Norsk Hydro; and, the Canadian fuel-cell designer, Ballard Power Systems of Burnaby, B.C. Iceland plans first to run hydrogen-powered buses and then to convert its fishing fleet to fuel cells, followed by trucks and cars.

As the New Scientist article points out hydrogen fuel cells are not new. The idea has been kicking around for more than 100 years - it was in 1839 that Welsh physicist William Grove showed that combining oxygen and hydrogen in a cell with platinum electrodes will generate electricity. Later, fuel cells were developed for the American space program. How does it work? A platinum electrode strips electrons from the hydrogen in a fuel cell. The hydrogen ions then pass through an electrolyte to the opposite electrode. The electrons are captured in an external circuit and combine with hydrogen ions and oxygen, producing water and electricity.

The only by-products from vehicles running on fuel cells are water vapour and heat. But, the process is expensive. It's difficult to store liquid hydrogen safely. And, storing enough to travel long distances is a problem, particularly in cars. DaimlerChrysler has been working on it and in March 1999 launched the NECAR-4 (the fourth, and improved, model since 1994), an electric car that can travel 400 kilometres without refuelling. The challenge to car makers now is to reduce the cost to make the cars affordable. (It cost millions of dollars to put the first fuel cells in 1960s space rockets, but the DaimlerChrysler system costs $35,000 a car. The aim is to cut this to a tenth of that figure.) The market potential is huge. There are 650 million vehicles fuelled by gasoline-powered, internal-combustion engines worldwide. By 2004, a tenth of all cars sold in California alone must not produce emissions. If fuel cells do take off commercially, one industry expert predicts that they could account for as much as a tenth of the $50 billion a year global market for power-generation equipment ten years from now.

SUGGESTED ACTIVITIES:

1. Nuclear energy is generated by the splitting of uranium atoms, which produces heat to drive a turbine to generate electricity. The process involves mining, milling, and transporting uranium, building and maintaining reactors and generating equipment, and treating and disposing of spent fuel. Do a detailed report on the cost and problems associated with the whole process, and find out why some people still think it could be a significant source of future energy.

2. Synthetic fuels are made from substances that are found in nature. Gasohol, for example, is a mixture of gasoline and alcohol made from living plants. But, such fuels are not expected to have much impact on the world's energy supply during the rest of the century. Find out why they're not a major option.

3. Make a model of a fuel cell.

"Eighteenth-century Great Britain shifted to coal, and the twentieth-century United States to oil, in part to meet the demands of growing populations; similar changes might be expected as more than 5 billion people seek more convenient transportation, refrigeration, air-conditioning and other amenities in the years ahead. Technologies that can meet the demands of developing nations at minimal cost may [take the lead] in the overall transition. "Worldwatch Institute in its 1999 edition of State of the World.

FACT FILE

Today's energy system completely bypasses roughly 2 billion people who don't have modern fuels or electricity, and underserves another 2 billion who can't afford such modern energy-using conveniences as refrigeration or hot water.

FACT FILE

The longest natural gas pipeline in the world is the TransCanada pipeline, which transported a record 66.6 billion cubic metres of gas over 13,955 kilometres of pipe in 1995.

FACT FILE

The human economy now draws on all 92 naturally occurring elements in the periodic chart, compared with just 20 in 1900.

RELATED ARTICLE: DRIVING FORCE

Companies are scrambling to produce environment-friendly vehicles. Governments in British Columbia and California, for example, have established strict emissions standards. And, through the Kyoto Protocol (1997) on global warming, 38 industrialized countries agreed to cut emissions of greenhouse gases to as much as 7% below 1990 levels.

The transportation industry is responsible for more than 60% of Canada's air pollution, including 25% to 30% of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) that contribute to global warming, according to the Toronto-based Canadian Natural Gas Vehicle Alliance. The biggest culprit is road traffic. The federal government has ordered the transportation sector to reduce GHGs by 28% by 2012 as part of Canada's commitment under the Kyoto agreement. General Motors, Ford, Toyota, and DaimlerChrysler, all are working on alternative fuel vehicles. Some models are hybrids, which combine a small internal-combustion engine with batteries or fuel cells. Others are electric, running on batteries. And, some run on natural gas, propane, methanol, and ethanol.

Many see the fuel cell as the most promising option. Ballard Power Systems of Burnaby, British Columbia, is the world leader in fuel cells: the company took off in a big way when DaimlerChrysler and Ford agreed to get involved. Ford now owns 15% of the company and DaimlerChrysler, 20%. Together, they're expected to revolutionize the $1.5 trillion car industry. But, industry experts estimate that mass-market acceptance of these vehicles won't happen until they improve their performance, both in terms of acceleration and range of travel, as well as their cost. Currently, a fuel-cell powered engine costs about ten times more than a regular gasoline engine. Those improvements are probably at least five years away.

In the meantime, some say natural gas is the best alternative-vehicle fuel. It's the cleanest fuel readily available on the market, say proponents, because it consists of 95% to 97% methane, which is almost entirely burned off by combustion. Natural gas vehicles reduce carbon monoxide emissions by 40% or more, smog-forming volatile organic compounds by about 92%, sulphur dioxide by 83%, carbon dioxide by 25%, and nitrogen oxide by 10%, compared to diesel fuel. And, it's estimated to be 25% to 50% cheaper than gasoline or diesel fuel, but provides comparable performance.

One school division in Saskatchewan converted nearly half of its school-bus fleet to run on natural gas in 1986, largely to save money, recognizing there would be environmental benefits as well. The fleet saved about $40,00 a year in fuel costs. Two years earlier, in 1984, Hamilton, Ontario, together with the federal and provincial governments, became the first place in North America to convert one of its public buses to natural gas. By 1999, half its fleet of 180 transit buses was powered by natural gas. The city expects to have its entire fleet powered by natural gas within six to eight years. A growing number of commercial fleets in Quebec are switching to natural gas vehicles. Moncton, New Brunswick started converting its buses to natural gas in 1996. The whole Maritime region is planning for wider use of natural gas with exploration ventures such as the $3 billion Sable Island natural gas production and pipeline project off Nova Scotia.

RELATED ARTICLE: FORWARD GLANCE

The World Energy Council (WEC) has come up with some interesting figures on future energy use. It suggests that in the period between 1994 and 2020 annual world energy demand could double, with demand in Latin America and especially Asia tripling, while it is expected to rise in North America only 13%.

The world's population is expected to increase by 2.7 billion people, to more than 8 billion, by 2020, and more than 60% of those people will be born in Asia and Latin America. WEC also thinks energy use in the developing countries could account for as much as 60% of the world total by 2020. By 1994, energy consumption in India alone more than tripled from its 1970 level. In China, consumption increased 22-fold between 1952 and 1994.

Websites

Ballard Power Systems - http:// www.ballard.com/

Canadian Gas Association - http:// www.cga.ca/

Energy Council of Canada - http:// www.energy.ca/