From cops to campuses, officials brace for the worst.

Byline: TIM CHRISTIE The Register-Guard

College administrators and managers of state agencies in Oregon won't know until January the answer to The $313 Million Question: Will voters approve a temporary income tax hike to patch up a badly listing state budget?

But they're already preparing for a worst-case scenario.

They're moving ahead with plans to trim their budgets in case the Jan. 28 income tax surcharge measure fails. And that means sending out layoff notices to state employees, preparing to cut programs that serve the elderly, poor, sick and disabled, trimming community college course offerings, and, in the case of the University of Oregon, planning to impose a tuition surcharge for winter term.

The Legislature referred the tax question to voters in this year's fifth special session, which ended early Wednesday. Legislators struggled to close a $482 million budget shortfall, finally settling on a plan that borrows $150 million, cuts $48 million and asks voters to raise the income tax for three years to generate $313 million.

"The long and short of it is, in January, if that ballot measure does not pass, we have a $6.3 million problem and there's no way for us to save enough paper clips to avoid layoffs," said Lt. Dale Rutledge, spokesman for the Oregon State Police.

And that's why state police employees got a good news-bad news letter from their bosses. The pink slips that went out to 137 troopers and 29 other employees earlier this month were rescinded - but employees were warned they could find themselves in the same position this winter if the tax measure fails, Rutledge said.

State police had earlier cut $10.5 million from an $183 million budget. If the January measure fails, the agency would have to cut another $6.3 million, which would require 131 sworn officers to be laid off, Rutledge said.

The outlook is grim as well at Lane Community College, where administrators are looking at $2.8 million in reductions after previously cutting $5 million for the current year, said Marie Matsen, vice president for college operations.

LCC will offer fewer classes and hire fewer part-time faculty and classified staff for winter quarter, though Matsen said details aren't yet known. The college can't wait for the election to cut its budget because by the time results are known, winter term will be in its fourth week.

"We're cutting off students who've already started programs, and we don't have any place in the institution to take up any slack," she said. "We've been cutting for the last six years."

If the measure passes, classes, faculty and staff could be restored for spring quarter, and the college will sock away any savings for the next biennium, when another lean budget is expected, Matsen said.

At the University of Oregon, administrators plan a different tack to make up what would be a $28 million cut if voters say no in January. Rather than reduce course offerings, they plan to impose a tuition surcharge, said John Moseley, UO provost and senior vice president.

The amount of the surcharge hasn't been determined yet. Administrators haven't decided whether to impose the surcharge at the beginning of the term and give students a refund if the tax measure passes, or to wait until after the election.

UO students now pay about $1,000 per quarter for a full load of classes, although the cost can vary depending on the course times selected.

The university could simply cut its budget, but that would mean reducing course offerings, Moseley said.

"At the University of Oregon we are committed to seeing students have the courses they need," he said. "Even if it requires a tuition increase, the costs to students are enormously higher if they can't get the courses they need and they have to go an extra quarter or two."

At the state's largest agency, the Department of Human Services, managers are preparing to send out pink slips to let some employees know they'll be laid off Feb. 1 if the tax measure fails, agency spokesman Jim Sellers said.

The agency has 9,500 employees and an annual budget of $4.3 billion, about 80 percent of which goes out to local communities in direct services.

About 850,000 people, or one in four Oregonians, are served by the agency in a single year, including about 100,000 in Lane County.

If the January measure fails, DHS would cut about $88 million, "so we've got to start planning now on how to take those cuts," agency finance director George Dunford said. The agency can make whatever cuts it's required to make, he said.

"It's the effect that's sometimes heart-wrenching, because you're cutting program services," Dunford said. "The result is tragic, but we have a statutory requirement and we will abide by that requirement."

Programs falling under the department's wide umbrella include health care for the poor; mental health services; senior and disabled services; adult and family services, which provides public assistance; child protective services; and drug and alcohol treatment.

Those services are intertwined with other branches of state and local government, he said. Like squeezing a balloon, cuts made in one area will show up in another, he said.

"What we push off ends up on someone else's plate," Dunford said. "The thing that people must understand is we don't operate in a vacuum ... I hope voters understand what they're voting on."