Frohnmayer's no Mobley.

Byline: The Register-Guard

John Frohnmayer understands better than most that third-party candidates can affect election results. If it weren't for a third-party candidate, his brother, Dave Frohnmayer, would have become governor of Oregon in 1990. On Tuesday John Frohnmayer dropped his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, reducing the chances that Democrat Jeff Merkley will see political history repeat itself.

Frohnmayer provided a second choice to voters hoping to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Gordon Smith. Running as the nominee of the Independent Party, formed as a vehicle for candidates who are comfortable in neither major party, Frohnmayer supported the impeachment of President Bush, demanded an immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and supported universal health insurance.

With such a platform, Frohnmayer wouldn't have drawn many voters away from Smith. But he'd have been an attractive alternative to voters who perceive Merkley as lukewarm in his opposition to the war and the Bush administration. Some voters who supported Steve Novick in the Democratic primary are still nursing their wounds from an energetic but unsuccessful insurgency against Merkley, and might have turned to Frohnmayer in the general election.

Frohnmayer said Tuesday that he had been counting on a groundswell of popular and financial support, but it never came. The fact that his campaign never gained traction demonstrates the power of the major parties' lock on the political process. Frohnmayer was a principled and thoughtful candidate - chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts under the first President Bush, an author and a professor of law.

But independent candidacies seldom catch fire. Two years ago, state Sen. Ben Westlund's highly visible independent campaign for governor fizzled on the launching pad. No independent has been elected to statewide office since Julius Meier won the governorship in 1930.

The capital-I Independent Party offered Frohnmayer a way to obtain a place on the ballot - not always easy under rules written by the major parties - but nothing beyond that. The party has no organizational or financial resources to put behind Frohnmayer or any candidate.

Independents don't need to win, however, to affect election results. In 1990, Republican Dave Frohnmayer alienated conservatives by opposing state measures to limit property taxes and restrict abortion rights, and by refusing to accede to the demands of an anti-gay-rights group, the Oregon Citizens Alliance. Many threw their support to OCA Chairman Al Mobley, who ran as an independent, giving him 13 percent of the vote. Most of those voters would have backed the Republican in a two-way race. Instead, Democrat Barbara Roberts became governor with a 46 percent plurality.

With John Frohnmayer out of the race, Merkley no longer needs to worry about an articulate candidate with a familiar name on his left flank - and Smith has lost a potential advantage. John Frohnmayer knows enough history to avoid being cast as Merkley's version of Mobley.