Free trade warriors in retreat.

U.S. political trends in trade policy are negative and getting worse. The Bush administration is giving the goal of enhanced free trade negotiating authority lip service, but on Capitol Hill the issue is virtually dead. After rebuffing President Bill Clinton in 1997, Congress voted again the next year to reject attempts to give the White House authority to negotiate "fast track" trade agreements with other countries, effectively killing the idea. With the House Republican leadership handicapped by a slim sixvote majority, there is little room to maneuver, especially on a surprisingly contentious issue like trade. And there's even less enthusiasm for taking up the issue in the midst of a recession and ahead of the 2002 Congressional elections.

"Fast track" has become a referendum on free trade vs. protectionism. The lopsided 285-143 vote in the House on June 26 to block the entry of Mexican trucks into the United States is the first solid indicator of just how badly the Reagan era political consensus behind free trade has eroded. Without a major revival effort by the Bush administration, their congressional allies, and corporate leaders, the advances made on free trade since the election of President Ronald Reagan in 1980's will remain a fading memory.

Truck access for companies in the United States and Mexico was provided for under the North American Free Trade Agreement, but was stalled until May when the Bush administration issued regulations for Mexican trucks to operate in the United States starting next January. The administration announced that it wanted Mexican trucks to meet U.S. safety standards before they are allowed to begin traveling freely throughout the United States, but that promise did little to mollify the Teamsters Union and other protectionist labor organizations. The House vote blocked the implementation of these regulations, creating the possibility of a veto by President Bush.

At a meeting of Republican Congressional strategists in early August, a White House representative focused almost entirely on tactical political issues and never once brought up trade. The official did not even volunteer an opinion about whether the administration plans to ask Congress to renew "fast track."

With Senate Democrats threatening to permanently kill "fast track" authority and reclaim control over trade from the Executive Branch, there may be little enthusiasm for such a fight within the GOP leadership in Congress. Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) has said he likes the odds of a Republican House and the White House against a Democratic Senate. The reality, however, is that with issues such as campaign finance reform and Social Security on the agenda, and a weak economy as the backdrop, there may be little time or political capital left over for trade issues this year.