Forecasts Of Oil Demand & Crude Production To 2020 - World Oil Demand Forecasts.

Long term forecasts are essentially extrapolations of recent trends. They do not take into account trends established in economic downturns but assume that once economic recessions are weathered, long term trends will continue.

The world oil demand forecasts included in Table 3.1 were derived from considerable analysis by the US DOE/EIA. They enjoy a high credibility and are widely used.

Two features of the forecast are the steady expansion of oil demand in the first two decades of the next century by a rate of near 2 million b/d pa and the relatively steady share of oil demand as a proportion of total energy demand at 38%.

World Oil Production Forecasts: Beyond the year 2000, substantial increases in Arabian Gulf oil production are forecast. Through the period 2000 to 2010, Arabian Gulf production is expanding at a rate of 1 million b/d pa and through the period 2010 to 2020 it is expanding at a rate of 2 million b/d pa. World Gas Demand & Supply Forecasts: World gas demand forecasts to the year 2020 are included in Table 3.3. The key feature of Table 3.3 is the expansion of gas demand after the year 2000 by a rate in oil equivalent terms of near 2 million b/d pa.

Reliability Of The Forecasts: Demand for energy will change from that forecast if the level of economic activity is different and if there are technical or social changes which have not been forecast. Hydropower forecasts have proved reliable over the long term but there is some small possibility of nuclear power supplies being substantially lower than forecast. In the event, there could be substitution of the other energy sources, particularly coal and oil, for nuclear power.

The DOE/EIA considers other cases in addition to the reference case quoted in Tables 3.1 to 3.3 and these cases consider Middle East oil supplies varying by as much as +10 million b/d for the year 2020. Whilst oil is relatively easy to ship anywhere worldwide in tankers, gas when shipped in tankers as liquid natural gas (LNG) involves a slightly higher cost and has rather less flexibility. Long distance gas pipelines are of course inflexible, require large investments and sometimes much political negotiation.

Consequently, whilst the DOE/EIA provides long term world gas demand forecasts, and is aware that there are adequate natural gas reserves, it does not speculate on exactly how the gas will be supplied in the year 2020.

Table 3.1 -
         WORLD OIL DEMAND FORECAST BY REGION TO 2020
                    million barrels/day
                 1990   1995   2000   2010   2020
USA              20.4   21.3   23.7   27.6   30.1
Western Europe   12.9   14.1   14.3   14.9   15.4
Middle East       3.4    4.1    4.4    5.6    7.1
Asia             13.8   18.3   21.0   34.8   38.4
Total World      66.0   69.9   77.5   95.9   116.1
Oil as percent
of world energy    39     39     38     38     37
  Source: US DOE/EIA 0484 (98)
  International Energy Outlook 1998
  Reference Case
TABLE 3.2 -
        WORLD OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST BY REGION TO 2020
                      million barrels/day
                 1990   1996   2000   2010   2020 USA               9.7    9.4
  9.1    8.9    8.5
Western Europe    4.6    7.0    8.2    7.5    6.3
Former Sov.Union 11.4    7.1    7.5   12.1   13.2
Arabian Gulf     16.2   18.5   19.4   27.2   47.4
Other OPEC        8.3    9.8   10.5   13.4   13.2
Total World       66.7  71.8   77.2   95.5   115.6
  Source: US DOE/EIA 0084 (98)
  International Energy Outlook 1998
  Reference Case
Table 3.3 -
         WORLD GAS DEMAND FORECAST BY REGION TO 2020
                  trillion cubic feet
                 1990   1995   2000   2010   2020
USA              22.0   25.4   28.5   34.4   39.4
Western Europe   10.3   12.7   16.2   23.5   32.1
Middle East       3.6    4.7    5.4    6.8    8.9
Asia              5.6    7.8   12.8   22.6   44.3
Total World        73   78.3   94.5  132.1  171.8
Gas as percent
of world energy    21    21     23     26     27
World gas in
million b/d o.e.   35   38   47   65   85
  Source: US DOE/EIA 0484 (98)
  International Energy Outlook 1998
  Reference Case