Forecasters Split on Activity Of 2001 Hurricane Season.The dean of long-range hurricane forecasters is predicting a slightly below-average season in the Atlantic and Caribbean in 2001, but an insurer-sponsored group of meteorologists Atmospheric scientists
William Gray William Gray or Bill Gray is a name shared by the following individuals:
For a lists of past seasons, see:
Severe atmospheric disturbance in tropical oceans. Tropical cyclones have very low atmospheric pressures in the calm, clear centre (the eye) of a circular structure of rain, cloud, and very high winds. activity at 90% of average. Gray's forecast is based primarily on the expected influence of El Nino, a cyclical warming of South Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of South America. This has been shown to inhibit formation of hurricanes in the past. Also cited in his forecast are high-altitude wind patterns near the equator, rainfall in West Africa and atmospheric pressure over the Azores Islands in October and November. But a separate forecast from the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London “UCL” redirects here. For other uses, see UCL (disambiguation). University College London, commonly known as UCL, is the oldest multi-faculty constituent college of the University of London, one of the two original founding colleges, and the first British is predicting a much more active season. The forecast calls for 10.6 named storms and 6.9 hurricanes, 3.4 of them intense. The London researchers use a model that looks at tropical Atlantic and Pacific sea-surface temperatures and Caribbean trade winds. The tropical North Atlantic is expected to be warmer than normal, while the trade winds will be weaker than normal. Both are factors that aid hurricanes, the group said. Gray also has forecast landfall land·fall n. 1. The act or an instance of sighting or reaching land after a voyage or flight. 2. The land sighted or reached after a voyage or flight. probabilities for segments of the U.S. coastline and the Caribbean. For the East and Gulf coasts as a whole, the probability of a Category 3 or higher storm making landfall is 63%, compared with an average for the past century of 52%, Gray said. The probability for the East Coast and the Florida peninsula is 43%, compared with an average of 31%, and the chances for the Gulf Coast are 36%, slightly above the average of 30%. The risk is about average in the Caribbean, Gray said. The London group's U.S. landfall forecast calls for 3.3 tropical cyclones to reach the coast, including 1.8 hurricanes, 0.8 of them intense. |
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