Forecaster claims he can call any film's box office take.

But movie folk remain under-impressed with test project

Christopher Lanier maintains he has found the film industry's Holy Grail: the ability to predict how a motion picture will do at the box office before it is released.

What's more, Lanier set out to prove his ability -- based on what he calls a "proprietary evaluation" -- in a unique public demonstration aimed at the Hollywood community.

Lanier spent six months sending out his predictions to 200 of the industry's heaviest hitters, from Fox Inc.'s Rupert Murdoch to Creative Artists Agency head Michael Ovitz.

Now, Lanier said, the results of his test are in, and he is claiming victory. "I figured that after those six months passed, I'd either be a fool or a genius," he said. "I accurately projected the theatrical earnings of 81 films, days and weeks ahead of their national releases. My results speak for themselves."

But in the industry, the jury is still out.

"We didn't ask for this service," said a spokeswoman for Barry London, president of worldwide distribution for Paramount Pictures' Motion Picture Group. "We just threw it away."

While keeping mum about the way he predicts the box office draws, Lanier said he considers the "endogenous factors that influence movie-going, computer analysis of past film-going patterns and mathematical projections of probable future audience attendance."

By looking only at the elements that are within the movie itself -- and not outside factors such as advertising budget and star power -- Lanier said his formula will even work by examining a script before the movie is made.

The result is his Motion Picture Intelligencer, a report that places a given movie in one of eight categories. The "prediction" comes as each category carries with it a corresponding set of probabilities for a movie's success.

For example, a movie in Lanier's Category D has a 49 percent chance of earning more than $10 million, as opposed to the industry average of a major film having a 30 percent shot at earning that amount.

Using this complicated statistical formula, Lanier said, his demonstration project proved to be a winner, at least statistically.

Lanier clearly failed to "predict" how every movie in his 81-film sample would do. For example, he gave "Last Action Hero" an 86 percent chance of earning more than $30 million and a 43 percent change of earning more than $60 million, while the movie made about $29.5 million.

However, he said, given the total sample size of all 81 movies he looked at, his method was proved to be "statistically significant," at least significant enough to be a major tool for studios and exhibitors by giving them an edge they otherwise wouldn't have.

"This is a risk management tool," Lanier said. "It tells you how to position your film, how to advertise it, what you should change, what you shouldn't change."

But Barry Reardon, president of distribution for Warner Bros., said Lanier's statistical projections are too vague to be of much use.

"What he's doing is not exceptionally difficult to do," Reardon said. "He's got such broad parameters, it's not like he's predicting how a movie is going to do. Those numbers of his don't really tell you anything.

"He'll say things like, 'You have a 40 percent chance of doing more than $50 million,'" Reardon continued. "I need to know, will it do $50 million, $60 million, $70 million, $80 million? I need the real numbers."

Another industry insider who was on Lanier's mailing list and received his predictions was equally skeptical.

"Some of the movies, he came pretty close," said the insider, who requested anonymity. "Some of the ones, he was way off. I really thought he was playing the odds. There was no way he could lose, so I didn't give much credence to it."

Most in the industry seemed to agree there are simply too many variables involved for anyone to predict how a movie will do once it's released.

But negative reviews and skepticism have yet to dampen Lanier's enthusiasm as he begins to market his service around the town.

"I've been met by a lot of disbelief," he said.

And in the meantime, Lanier said, he has already had interest from several parties whom he declined to identify.

And that might be the ultimate test of Lanier's Motion Picture Intelligencer, according to one industry insider.

As one who was sent the service said, "If what he (Lanier) has gets him clients, then it works for him."