For Wall Street, homes are still where heart is.For L.A.'s homebuilders, the current economic recipe of rising mortgage interest rates, flattening
The flattening, ellipticity, or oblateness of an oblate spheroid is the "squashing" of the spheroid's pole, down towards its equator. appreciation levels and dwindling dwin·dle v. dwin·dled, dwin·dling, dwin·dles v.intr. To become gradually less until little remains. v.tr. To cause to dwindle. See Synonyms at decrease. sales seemingly would give Wall Street indigestion indigestion or dyspepsia, discomfort during or after eating caused by some interference with the normal digestive process. Symptoms include nausea, heartburn, abdominal pain, gas distress, and a feeling of abdominal distention. . But institutional investors Institutional Investor A non-bank person or organization that trades securities in large enough share quantities or dollar amounts that they qualify for preferential treatment and lower commissions. aren't losing their appetite for KB Home and Ryland Group Inc. despite falling orders for new homes--with several analysts still advocating buying more shares. "Most of the concerns about a slowdown in housing have been overdone o·ver·done v. Past participle of overdo. Adj. 1. overdone - represented as greater than is true or reasonable; "an exaggerated opinion of oneself" exaggerated, overstated ," said William Mack William Mack (February 29 1828 – December 11 1897) was an Ontario businessman and political figure. He represented Cornwall from 1879 to 1883, Cornwall and Stormont from 1886 to 1890 and Stormont from 1890 to 1894 in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario as a Liberal member. , an equity analyst at Standard & Poor's, in comments on the U.S. housing market. "There is little doubt that there is a slowing ... but it's not as bad as people think." Still, the slowdown in the nation's housing market is becoming visible in the homebuilders' bottom lines--and their share prices. Both homebuilder share prices were over $80 in early January but last week were in the upper $60s. This month KB Home reported that fiscal first-quarter earnings rose 42 percent. Outside of possibly the energy sector, that number would have wowed investors, but it was the smallest gain in four quarters and made some analysts nervous about how the company will fare if the housing market continues to cool, as most economists believe it will. The fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder by market value, KB said net orders for new homes fell 12 percent in the first quarter, compared to a 23 percent gain in the year earlier period. It was the first decline in home orders since the second quarter of 2002. Perhaps more ominously, in the company's announcement Chief Executive Bruce Karatz attributed the drop in net orders to cancellations. "Some housing markets have moderated from the over-heated and, in some cases, speculative pace of growth of the past few years," he said. "Tempering of demand to more sustainable long-term levels is a good thing." Much of that falloff fall·off n. A reduction or decrease: a falloff in car sales. Noun 1. falloff - a noticeable deterioration in performance or quality; "the team went into a slump"; "a gradual slack in has been in the regions where KB and Ryland have seen much of the companies' recent booming business: Nevada, Arizona and Texas, among others. Home prices in Phoenix have been flat for more than two months and prices have declined from levels reached six months ago. Same goes for Las Vegas Las Vegas (läs vā`gəs), city (1990 pop. 258,295), seat of Clark co., S Nev.; inc. 1911. It is the largest city in Nevada and the center of one of the fastest-growing urban areas in the United States. , where prices have dropped for two consecutive months. Still, Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, , another region where KB is active, has been resilient, according to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. Sacramento-based listings Web site Foreclosures.com. "There is no crash coming (in Southern California) because the excess inventory just isn't there," Alexis McGee, the firm's president, said in a recent report. "We're just getting back to normal." If more regions where KB and Ryland are building stay resilient than those areas that falter, the homebuilders could fare well over the next several years. Even so, KB recently entered markets that some analysts believe are risky. The homebuilder opened a new office--and entered into partnerships with other homebuilders--to construct subdivisions in the metropolitan Washington, D.C. market, which has experienced appreciation levels on par with Southern California. KB also has made a bet on the rebuilding of hurricane-ravaged New Orleans New Orleans (ôr`lēənz –lənz, ôrlēnz`), city (2006 pop. 187,525), coextensive with Orleans parish, SE La., between the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain, 107 mi (172 km) by water from the river mouth; founded . The company has entered into an agreement to build homes on 3,000 acres southwest of the city, and earlier this month KB announced it would build 75 homes near the city's tony Garden District neighborhood in what is believed to be the first major residential project close to the center of New Orleans. Standard & Poor's Mack told Bloomberg News he believes KB will be successful partly because of the shift in its regions, but also because of how the company is changing the mix of the homes it builds. Instead of relying on first-time homebuyers First-Time Homebuyer An IRA owner who is exempt from the early-distribution penalty (which applies to IRA distributions that occur before the IRA owner reaches age 59.5) for distributing funds from his or her IRA to buy, build, or rebuild a home when having had no interest in a , who are likely to be more affected by a slowing economy and rising interest rates, the company is building more higher-end residences that attract established homeowners. KB's partnership with Martha Stewart <noinclude></noinclude> Martha Stewart (born Martha Helen Kostyra on August 3, 1941) is an American business magnate, author, editor and homemaking advocate. She is also a former stockbroker and fashion model. is one such example of this strategy. The homes, designed with flourishes from the kitchen and crafts mogul Mogul: see Mughal. , sell at a higher price and have so far been well received. The company's first Martha Stewart branded community, a 650home division in a Raleigh, N.C., suburb, attracted interest from 3,800 families. And KB announced earlier this year that the company plans to build 1,800 of the homes in markets located in Southern California; Atlanta; Houston; Charlotte, N.C.; Las Vegas: Orlando, Fla.; and Daytona Beach Daytona Beach (dātō`nə), city (1990 pop. 61,921), Volusia co., NE Fla., on the Atlantic coast and Halifax River (a lagoon); inc. 1876. Center of a rapidly urbanizing area, in a region settled by Spanish Franciscans in the 17th cent. , Fla. Karatz agrees the Martha Stewart brand could inadvertently help the homebuilder weather the effects of a cooling national housing market. "While that wasn't our primary motivation, there's no question that these Martha Stewart communities create excitement in a marketplace that is less buoyant," he told the Business Journal earlier this month. Bargain-hunter investors are loading up on homebuilder stocks, including Ryland and KB, because the sector's shares have fallen 26 percent since a July 20 peak. Ryland, for example, is trading at one of its lowest prices relative to earnings in the last two years. Investors selling their stake expect profit margins to shrink due to rapidly rising land and development costs. They also believe the industry will begin offering discounts and promotions to counteract rising inventories of unsold homes. Still, bulls point to the industry's large profits and competitive advantages compared to private companies. Indeed, while Ryland's share price is falling, the company continues to report record earnings. (Ryland is scheduled to release its first-quarter earnings on April 20.) For that reason, value funds have swooped in. Bloomberg News reported earlier this month that Legg Mason Founded in 1899, Legg Mason, Inc. (NYSE: LM) is a leading Global Asset Management Firm that serves the institutional, mutual fund and wealth management markets. The firm is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland, and is located on Lombard and Charles Streets in the Legg Mason Inc. has been buying shares of Ryland and other homebuilders. The Baltimore investment bank is now the second-largest outside owner of Ryland. Funds like the one operated by Legg Mason believe public homebuilders like KB and Ryland will continue to grow market share because of easier and cheaper access to capital and higher economies of scale. Publicly traded homebuilders have tripled market share during the last 15 years to about 30 percent of all newly built homes, Argur Oduma, a Morningstar equity analyst told Bloomberg News. In the long-run, Oduma believes public homebuilders will continue to grow and expand--making them a good bet. "When the market slows, the first people to suffer are the mom-and-pop shops that rely on credit lines for financing," Oduma said. "When they suffer, they might sell out to the larger builders." |
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