Football:Layers expecting run on Liverpool; Sports Betting.

Byline: Kevin Pullein

THE one interesting price on tonight's televised Premiership game at Bolton is Spreadex's opening offer of 42 minutes for a buy of the time of the first Liverpool goal.

It is interesting because it appears to be wrong, technically, in view of their overall assessment of the game.

The midpoints of Spreadex's supremacy and total goals lines imply that they have Gerard Houllier's multiple trophy winners in for 1.9 goals.

If this is so, the first Liverpool goal should be expected after 44 minutes.

IG quote it at 42-45 minutes, Sporting at 44-47. (Both those firms have Liverpool in for 1.85 goals, which implies a first away goal expectation of 45 minutes).

Spreadex - and IG, to a lesser extent - have probably moved the line forward on the not unreasonable assumption that the time of the first goal by Michael Owen, Emile Heskey and company at unfashionable Bolton is something that most will want to sell. Unfortunately, Spreadex's market decision creates a two-minute arb with Sporting. And if they close it all themselves, the apparent value in a buy will have all but disappeared.

The panel of prices on tonight's Division One game between Burnley and Manchester City is even more arb-ridden.

IG open bookings at 34, six points of arbitrage below Sporting and Spreadex. Kevin Keegan's teams are normally well-behaved, but City did collect five cautions and a dismissal last weekend at Norwich and this is a Lancastrian derby.

Burnley, two points short of the play-offs last season, have opened with three straight wins and the fundamental reason for the Turf Moor arbs is a disagreement among market-makers about how much better than Stan Ternent's Clarets are Keegan's Blues. I am most in agreement with Sporting's.

Recommendations

No bet

CAPTION(S):

Punters may expect an early strike from Emile Heskey and Co