Food crisis looms.

Confusion and contradiction in Zambia's agricultural sector has led to a severe shortage of the country's main crop, leaving farmers desperate and provoking Parliamentary polemics even within the Government itself. Most worrying however, is the looming food shortage

Zambia looks almost certain to face serious shortages of maize, the country's staple source of nutrition, due to the shambolic state of its agricultural sector. A dismal implementation of policies and an erratic supply of prohibitively priced fertilizers, which left many farmers without a single bag midway into season, sparked off the first signs of this pending crisis.

Fears really hit home when the fertilizer started trickling in. The Government decided on a 100% price hike which left many small scale farmers, who produce the bulk of the crop, unable to afford the necessary supplement. A 50kg bag of 'D' Compound fertilizer, for example, rose from K23,000 ($23) to K50,000 ($50). The increase came after many farmers had planned their budgets and planted their maize crops.

Huge drop in maize yield

As a result of these developments, plus the almost non-existent agriculture credit facility for farmers, the Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU) has projected a huge drop in the expected national maize yield. Mr Ajay Vashee, President of the Union, predicts "a 40% deficit in maize production this season because of poor fertilizer distribution."

In Ndola, in the Copperbelt region, Mr Goodson Mulilo, Chairman of Lufwanyama Farmers Development Association, criticised the Government for making such a serious miscalculation. "This will obviously result in lower quantities of maize," he comments. Many farmers may not manage to 'top dress' crops, thus further reducing the chances of a reasonable yield.

A leading businessman and farmer, Mr Daniel Munkombwe, explained how, at the end of December 1996, only 2,000 tonnes of the 32,000 tonnes of fertilizer needed, had been distributed. Mr Munkombwe, also Provincial Chairman of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD), described his party's actions as a "stab in the back" for farmers. Many have already lost their cattle herds during the drought years and cannot raise the money to buy fertilizer.

In the same region, a non-governmental organisation, Peace and Education Services Association (PESA), raised the expectations of over 3,000 farmers with a promise to supply fertilizer which is yet to arrive.

"The Government is responsible for all this chaos despite their stated desire to have the sector being private-enterprise driven," comments Mr Ben Kapita, a former top executive of the ZNFU, now Chairman of the National Lima Party. In the 1992/93 seasons, he explained, the Government gave private companies the go-ahead to import fertilizer. "Shortly afterwards, it got the donor community to bring in more fertilizer which it then sold at half the market price, thus undercutting the private businessmen who had brought in fertilizer at a great cost."

Likewise, Dr Yusuf Badat, an MMD Member of Parliament, told Parliament recently, that the confusing policy had left farmers in a total mess: "When MMD came into office in 1991, it said it would leave agriculture to the private sector. Now it seems the Government doesn't know whether to pull out or stay in. Government leaders however, deny all this. Dr Austin Sichinga, the Agriculture Permanent Secretary, refuted charges of inconsistent policy.

Farmers blamed

Dr Sichinga argued that the late distribution of fertiliser was a problem partly caused by the farmers themselves. "In the past few years, we have given fertilizer on credits but recovery rates have not been very good." Consequently, he adds, the Government has been compelled to "borrow money from the private sector in order to purchase these stocks. This caused the delay."

On the prohibitive price of fertilizer, Dr Sichinga said, "The prices reflect the true value of the fertilizer in dollar terms converted in kwacha. You have to understand that there has been a depreciation in the value of the kwacha. Last season the dollar was equal to K800. Now it is about K1000." He also dismissed the projection of a 40% drop in maize stocks this season, saying, "We, as Government, have given credit to many farmers, more than in any other season. So I don't see how we could possibly have a shortage."

In contrast, the Minister of Agriculture, Ms Edith Nawakwi, said the scenario was far from suitable for many farmers, especially in the small-scale bracket. "This environment is definitely not enabling," she admits. "There's got to be some credit arrangement put in place, at least for small scale farmers."

To add to the Government's contradictions, the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Mr Ackson Sejani, commented: "I think liberalisation in the agriculture sector is not working out the way we had intended it." To make matters even more embarrassing, he proceeded to make what has been widely seen as a hair-brained suggestion: "There's no way we are going to reduce the price of fertilizer. The only alternative is for farmers to diversify."

"You cannot have crop diversification, from the blues, without training and extension services," said Mr Vashee in deep criticism of Mr Sejani's ignorance. "It's a long-term project. Farmers will need a great deal of assistance; they have been growing maize for years. You can't diversify in the middle of a growing season."

According to Mr Frances Van der Vinne Chief Technical Advisor with the UN outfit, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), there is no cause for worry since, for the past few years, Zambia has achieved self-sufficiency in production. "There has been an increase in many non-traditional exports like tobacco, cotton, horticultural products and flowers. These will offset the potential losses in maize," he said, adding that foreign currency earnings from these exports "can be used to import maize.

"The net gain is greater. I think we must move away from the policy of emphasizing maize growing. We have seen what that policy has done over the last 25 years."

But Mr Vashee was quick to point out the problems with this suggestion. He warned that the liberalised market system could work against farmers because higher maize prices would offset high fertilizer costs. He said millers could opt to import cheaper maize from neighbouring countries thereby leaving local farmers stuck with their maize stocks, unable to repay loans. For the farmers, insisted Mr Vashee, it is a no-win situation.