Following Accurate 2004 Outlook, TSR Predicts Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2005; Extended Outlook Predicts Atlantic Basin and U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Activity Will Be 155% of Average in 2005.

LONDON -- Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the award-winning consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, today warned of another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2005. The forecast follows TSR's successful long-range outlook for the unusually active 2004 hurricane season and on-target forecasts for the 2003 and 2002 Atlantic hurricane seasons. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November.

TSR's long-range hurricane outlook anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity being 155% of average in 2005. The prediction includes:

--A 76% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 18% probability of a near-normal season and only a 6% chance of a below-normal season

--14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with eight of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes

--A 67% probability of above-normal U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, a 22% likelihood of a near-normal season and only a 11% chance of a below-normal season

--Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes

--Two tropical storm hits, including one hurricane, on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles.

The two main climate factors influencing the TSR hurricane forecast for 2005 are the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between west Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop. The former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms. TSR anticipates weaker than normal trades and warmer than normal waters in 2005; conditions which both favour an above-average hurricane season.

Dr Mark Saunders, the TSR lead scientist and Head of Seasonal Forecasting and Meteorological Hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, urged vigilance on the part of governments and individual citizens alike: "We are witnessing an active period for Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity. Following the interval of low hurricane damage between 2000 and 2002 (when just one hurricane made U.S. landfall), 2003 and 2004 have seen the third highest two-year total number of U.S. hurricane landfalls (7) since 1900. Based on current and projected climate signals it seems this upsurge in activity will continue through 2005." However, Saunders warned that uncertainties at this lead are large and that forecast confidence will increase as the hurricane season approaches.

Hurricanes rank as the U.S.'s most expensive natural disaster and are responsible for eight of the 10 most costly catastrophes to affect the country. The average annual insured loss from hurricane strikes on the continental U.S. 1950-2004 is estimated to be U.S. $3.0 billion at 2004 prices and exposures.

TSR has an impressive forecasting track record. Recent forecast successes include those for the last three Atlantic hurricane, Northwest Pacific typhoon, and Australian-region tropical cyclone seasons. TSR forecasts may be accessed through the website www.tropicalstormrisk.com.