Focusing On Education & The Media.

Yet it is not likely that Islamic states allied to the US will face military action in Phase Two. Far more likely, and in some senses far more dangerous for the regimes concerned, is the pressure that is likely to materialise for real reforms in key areas like democratisation, liberalised education, freedom of the press, transparency in financial systems, etc. In the Western media, there are already numerous reports calling for pressure to be applied on allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia who are judged as being less than fully supportive of Operation Enduring Freedom.

There are calls for pressure for reform in these countries in areas ranging from political to educational systems. Special attention has been paid in US magazines to the educational system of Saudi Arabia, for example, with reports pointing out that the madrassa system in the kingdom - which is under the guidance of the Wahhabi ulema - is turning out recruits for the jihad against America. They note the FBI has pointed out that possibly up to 12 out of the 19 hijackers of Sept. 11 are from the south-eastern Saudi provinces of Asir and Baha.

It is certain that Phase Two will involve pressures on regimes to regulate the madrassas in a way that the curriculum is more pro-Western, or less anti-Western, without reducing their Islamic content. Whether this is possible, from the Wahhabi viewpoint, or desirable from the royal family's perspective, is a matter that remains to be seen. Whether the Saudi royal family would be able to implement such changes, in the face of the stiff opposition that can be expected from the ulema, is another matter that remains to be seen. Similarly, Western media reports have repeatedly pointed to the press in the Islamic World, even among close allies like Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan, which continue to paint the events of Sept. 11 as a conspiracy involving the Jews, the American military, Al Gore, etc. These reports also note that the media repeatedly tries to equate the attacks on the WTC and Pentagon with the Arab-Israeli confrontation as well as the general weakness of the Muslims in the world today.

The problem for the regimes currently in place in the Middle East is that bringing about such reforms will threaten their own survival. As such, they are not likely to go along with US demands - or they will do so in a manner that will create the appearance of reform while things continue as they are. It is important to point out in this context that economic reforms have long been demanded by the US, and under IMF and World Bank guidance, many countries in the Middle East have implemented liberalisation measures.

Some, especially in North Africa, have begun to benefit from them. Yet these benefits have not really affected the way in which the West is perceived in these regions. In general, in North Africa as elsewhere in the Arab World, the US is seen as being hostile to Islam. Reforming the political and educational system would be a different type of challenge, compared to economic liberalisation. This is because such reforms cannot be made without the population sooner or later calling into question the legitimacy of those rulers and pressing for democratic change. Most observers believe that not one of Washington's allies in the region will be prepared to shift towards a Western-style democracy.