Floridians for Responsible Transportation Planning Say Rail Proposal Would Cost Taxpayers Billions.

Business Editors

TALLAHASSEE, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 24, 2000

In a report titled "Constitutional Train Wreck: An Analysis of the Proposed Mandated Florida High-Speed Rail System," internationally renowned public policy consultant and transportation expert Wendell Cox has released eye-opening costs and data regarding Amendment Initiative No.1, which Florida voters will decide on Nov. 7.

According to the report, the estimated cost to construct a high-speed rail system connecting the state's five largest metropolitan areas would be between $8.2 billion and $21.9 billion; take 20 years to complete; and cost Florida between $617 million and $1.6 billion in annual deficits once in operation.

Amendment Initiative No.1 mandates the state to begin by Nov. 1, 2003, construction of a high-speed rail, monorail, fixed guideway or magnetic levitation system linking the state's five largest urban areas.

Because Cox believes the text of Amendment Initiative No.1 is vague about what urban areas would be served by the high-speed rail system, he estimated the financial and ridership implications of the amendment on an approximate 480-mile system linking Miami-Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Jacksonville.

For the analysis, Cox studied three potential technologies: near high-speed rail, which would operate at speeds up to 150 miles per hour; conventional high-speed, which operates at speeds up to 200 mph; and magnetic levitation, which operates at speeds up to 300 mph. Though proponents also proposed a statewide monorail system, it was not reviewed because there is no commercial monorail currently operating in the world in excess of 120 mph, which would be required by the Florida Constitution. Though Cox did provide an analysis on the magnetic levitation system, no commercial intercity system exists after a proposed route between Berlin and Hamburg, Germany, was canceled due to escalating costs.

In the 16-page report, Cox made what he called "optimistic" and "realistic" projections concerning construction costs, tax subsidies, capital, operating and annual costs, ridership, commercial revenue, deficits and tax subsidies, passenger fares, cost and tax subsidies, impact on congestion and comparative cost effectiveness of high-speed rail to highway and airport construction. The James Madison Institute in Tallahassee published the Cox's report as a Backgrounder.

Cox has studied rail proposals throughout the world and has served as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Transportation; was a certified expert from 1986-93 with the Urban Mass Transportation Administration; and served as an elected chairman for both the American Public Transit Association Planning and the American Public Transit Association Governing Boards Committee. He currently runs an international consulting firm based in Belleville, Ill.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: Contact Wendell Cox at [phone] or Bob Burleson at [phone]. "Constitutional Train Wreck: An Analysis of the Proposed Mandated Florida High-Speed Rail System" can be downloaded at: www.publicpurpose.com/ut-flhsr2000.htm.

`CONSTITUTIONAL TRAIN WRECK: An Analysis of the Proposed Constitutionally Mandated Florida High Speed Rail System'

FACT SHEET

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-- To construct a high-speed rail system linking Florida's five largest
metropolitan areas, the cost would be between $8.2 billion and $21.9 billion.

-- The National Academy of Sciences reports rail lines can expect cost overruns
of 50 to 100 percent, and it's not uncommon for overruns to be more than 100
percent.

-- Federal Railroad Administration estimates show the annual operating costs
for a high-speed rail like the one proposed in Amendment Initiative No.1 would
be $146 million to $192 million.

-- Annual costs in 2020, which would include operation and debt service, for
the high-speed rail system would be between $617 million and $1.6 billion.

-- Once construction begins on the 480-mile high-speed rail system, proponents
believe it would take 20 years to build.

-- Realistic projections for daily ridership on the high-speed rail system
would be 6,600 to 6,800 passengers, approximately 1.1 to 4.0 percent of the
anticipated automobile traffic volume on Florida's roads in 2020.

-- The 1 to 4 percent of automobile traffic volume removed by the high-speed
rail's daily ridership is even less if you take into account automobile volume
on adjacent corridors is projected to increase 51 to 55 percent by 2020.

-- Realistic projections for commercial revenues, which includes passenger
fares and advertising, station and concession revenues, would only pay 5.6 to
12.7 percent of the high-speed rail system's annual costs, which means tax
subsidies would pay between 87.3 to 94.4 percent ($617 million to $1.6 billion
annually) of the system's costs.

-- It will cost $75 to as much as $640 in tax subsidies per high-speed rail
passenger ride. The total cost per-passenger, per-mile -- for every 30 seconds
of a 120-mile per hour trip

-- will be between $0.83 and $4.92.

-- Cost per-passenger mile on rail will be double to 16-times more than that of
the total cost of an automobile per-mile, based on IRS's 31-cent tax deduction.