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Flat opportunity.


You can't fault any mutual fund investor for wondering when the financial benefits of low interest rates are going to kick in.

The Federal Reserve's campaign since early last year of cutting short-term rates and keeping them cheap has succeeded in charging up the Main Street economy, but it has put no spark in the stock market.

According to the latest reports, U.S. Gross Domestic Product, minus inflation, jumped at a 5.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2002 after rising at 1.7 percent rate in the previous three months.

Though the pace is bound to slow, economists still call for a lively growth rate of 3 percent to 3.5 percent over the rest of the year.

In the producing and consuming economy, low rates encourage borrowing and cut the cost of doing business. In the markets, they reduce the competitive allure of bonds in comparison with stocks, and reward investors less for holding cash reserves in the money markets.

Everybody's still waiting for the boost to stocks.

Traders who ought to be bidding the market higher seem instead to be worried that low interest rates are a symptom of weakness rather than a cure.

When bond-market rates started to rise this spring, some said that was a positive sign.

Alas, the spring upswing in rates didn't last, and stocks went back into a swoon.

In the upbeat view, the economy really is as vibrant as it looks.

Stocks are just dealing with an emotional backlash from the 1990s, when they rose beyond all reason. The "hot money
Hot Money
Money that flows regularly between financial markets in search for the highest short term interest rates possible.

Notes:
CDs are an example of hot money. Should a borrower offer the lender a higher rate of interest than that offered by the current borrower, the current borrower stands to lose their loan.
See also: Certificate of Deposit - CD, Interest Rates
" that powered the boom has now moved on to other places, chasing new prizes, like real estate. In the absence of that hot money, stock market regulars are reluctant to buy until they see how low price-earning ratios, still high by historical standards, might go. For long-term investors, it will all eventually work out just fine.

I have no proof whatsoever that this vision will prove correct. You don't have to take my word.

Listen to a reader who, after looking at a recent column discussing the possibility of an extended period of "dreary" investment returns, advised me to cheer up.

"I'm 35 years old and I plan on buying stocks for the next 30 years," he said in an e-mail. "A nice flat market is the perfect time to accumulate those shares at nice, reasonable prices." A timely reminder there that if you're going to succeed in investing, you can't let the market dictate your mood.
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Title Annotation:low interest rates are not helping stock market
Comment:Flat opportunity.(low interest rates are not helping stock market)
Author:Currier, Chet
Publication:Los Angeles Business Journal
Article Type:Brief Article
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:May 20, 2002
Words:421
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