Fitch Rates Ohio $200MM GO Adjustable-Rate Bonds 'AA+/F1+'.

NEW YORK -- Fitch Ratings assigns an 'AA+/F1+' rating to $200 million State of Ohio common schools general obligation (GO) adjustable-rate bonds, series 2005A-B. The bonds, issued for the state through the Ohio Public Facilities Commission, will sell on March 31 through negotiation with Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc (series 2005A) and JPMorgan (series 2005B). In addition, Fitch affirms the 'AA+' and 'AA+/F1+' ratings of $5.4 billion outstanding Ohio GO bonds.

The series 2005A-B bonds, maturing on March 15, 2025, subject to prior redemption, initially will be issued with a weekly rate, which may be changed later to other rate periods. Liquidity to pay the purchase price of tendered, but not remarketed, bonds will be provided by the State of Ohio. Therefore, both the long-term and short-term ratings reflect the state's credit quality.

Ohio's 'AA+' GO bond rating reflects its track record of conservative financial management, moderate and rapidly amortized debt burden, and broad economy. From 2001-2003, a severe loss of manufacturing employment depressed state revenues and required repeated actions to trim spending, as well as a temporary $0.01 sales tax increase that expires in June 2005. The state took the actions promptly, while maintaining significantly reduced, modest reserves of just over 1% of revenues. The economy now is recovering, as policymakers consider the 2005-2007 biennial budget. Achievable, balanced budgetary decisions, longer term effects of enacted tax reforms, and economic trends will be important considerations in future rating actions.

The pace of economic growth strengthened modestly through the course of 2004. January 2005 employment is 0.7% above that of January 2004. Jobs in the manufacturing sector, so important to the state's economy, declined 2.2% on an average monthly basis in 2004. Recently, however, manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, including motor vehicle manufacturing.

Through February, state general revenues for fiscal 2005 are up 4.8% from the same period of the prior fiscal year, including 5.9% in total sales and use taxes, 8.8% in personal income taxes, and 6.3% growth in all tax revenues. This is 0.8% above the revenue estimate. Spending for the fiscal year to date is 0.8% below the estimate.

The governor's proposed biennial budget for fiscal years 2006 and 2007 grows general revenue fund spending at the slowest rate in 40 years, including significant Medicaid cuts, and includes large tax cuts. To stimulate growth, the governor proposes lowering certain broad-based taxes, including income taxes, half of the current temporary sales tax, and certain business taxes. The 21% income tax reductions would be phased in over five years, increasing over time. The base of other state levies would be broadened, and cigarette, tobacco product, and alcoholic beverage taxes would be increased.

Debt remains moderate, and will equal approximately 3% of personal income, or $906 per capita. General revenue fund supported debt amortizes rapidly, with about two-thirds scheduled for retirement within 10 years. Debt service consumed 4.1% of general revenue fund and lottery revenues in fiscal 2004.

The 'F1+' rating of series 2005A-B and other adjustable-rate bonds is based on the ample amount of state money market and investment balances that are available to meet liquidity requirements related to the debt. Adjustable-rate bonds to be outstanding will total $552 million, 5% of tax-supported debt; each of these bonds also involves a swap, predominantly to a synthetic fixed rate. The current issues involve a forward-starting swap in which the state will pay the counterparties a fixed rate and receive payments tied to the BMA index. Policies of the state treasurer target unhedged variable-rate exposure, including synthetic variable-rate debt, between 5% and 25% of the state's general obligation and appropriation indebtedness.

As of February 2005, the state treasurer's total state funds cash and investments equaled $5.9 billion. The liquidity fund, comprising primarily money market, agency, and domestic commercial paper investments, had a balance of $3.7 billion; the fund's lowest month-ending balance over the past 26 months was $2.8 billion. With the improvement in the state's revenue collections during 2004, cash balances have been strengthening.