Fiscal dream or a slashing nightmare? How will the GOP takeover of Congress affect blacks?

Shortly after stampeding their way to control of Congress, GOP leaders began pushing their "Contract with America," which includes promises of increased military spending and cuts in social programs.

Last November, the reaction of angry voters was to clean house. Unfortunately, some observers believe that blacks will feel the brunt of this backlash as Republican leaders simultaneously try to reform welfare (see "The War Against Poor Women," Economic Perspectives, this issue), reduce taxes, spend more on defense and balance the budget.

The GOP takeover also stripped 11 Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) members of the influential chairmanships of House committees and subcommittees.

Some observers say the GOP agenda sounds like "deja voodoo" economics. Others, like Milton Bins and Walter E. Williams, hear a sweet, fiscal symphony.

Bins, chairman of the Council of 100, a Washington, D.C.-based national organization of black Republicans, says the Democrat's disastrous defeat will force blacks to reassess a failed strategy of supporting one party overwhelmingly. Williams, a George Mason University professor, goes a step further. The conservative economist says someday black-majority districts may vote for Republicans and reject what he calls the "destructive liberal Democratic agenda."

That may or may not happen. But to balance the budget, everyone admits, Republicans will have to gut programs that many blacks and poor Americans depend on and have taken as a birthright for decades. If the GOP plans to cut spending--without touching Social Security or raising taxes--the majority of poor and working-class blacks will face a lean future with a frayed safety net, according to some political observers.

Examining potential GOP expense reductions, which are broad on cuts but short on specifics, paints a stark picture to some. One of the largest cuts will be in income-security items, including welfare and other antipoverty programs. Cities, which lost federal block grants during the Reagan years, might have to look elsewhere for money for sewers and economic development programs.

Conservatives argue that the government's heavy regulatory hand will be lifted off business under GOP control. Families may also receive a $500 tax credit for each child.

The biggest and most immediate losers of the GOP takeover, many observers believe, is the CBC. Under Democratic control of Congress, they were major players at the table. Now, their power seems to lie in their ability to form coalitions with other groups to prevent veto overrides.

The GOP has proposed eliminating direct funding for the CBC and numerous other legislative caucuses. Republicans say the move will save taxpayers millions of dollars, but Democrats say it is a power play designed to dilute their clout. CBC members will be able to continue to meet and to divert portions of their budgets for caucus-related business.

Ronald Walters, chairman of Howard University's political science department, says that if the CBC and other minority lawmakers unite, they'll control 80 to 100 House votes and will have significant leverage.

Former CBC chairman, Rep. Kweisi Mfume of Maryland, also tried to place a positive spin on the resounding Republican victory. "We are the only true voting block that on any given day can muster 30 votes. We become the margin of victory or defeat [in attempts to override a presidential veto] and that gives us the ability to broker the things that mean the most to the people we represent."