Fighter aircraft: which way to go?

Air combat has played little or no port in recent major conflicts. Nonetheless, there remains a widespread requirement for aircraft to deliver ordnance at survivable speeds, and for a capability to intercept--and if appropriate destroy--intruding aircraft. Fighters satisfying such needs tend to receive funding priority as highly visible symbols of a nation's importance and power.

The key issue is what attitude procurement agencies should take toward low observability. Dedicated stealth designs offer the prospect of first-day-of-war survivability and a high kill ratio, but only at significant penalty in purchase price and operating cost. For export customers they also pose major problems in what British officials are now terming <<sovereignty of operation>>. Among potential customers there are concerns over the maintenance, repair, modification and upgrading of stealth fighters, in addition to the as-yet unanswered question of whether an aircraft of full-stealth standard will be exported.

On the other hand, is a conventional (pre-stealth) fighter going to be 'dead-meat' in combat with a low observable design? Or will stealth be rendered futile by the use of multiple airborne early warning (AEW) radars datalinking target information to non-stealthy (and nonradiating) old-fashioned fighters?

If these issues have yet to be decided, is the logical approach for most operators to lease an intermediate generation of fighters, or is the final judgement on stealth so many years in the future that leasing is uneconomic? Nobody knows the answers, and the only winner is America, which has both the technology and the funding to back both horses in the race.

Chengdu J-7/F-7 and FC-1

At the lightweight end of the fighter spectrum China continues to develop aircraft derived from the RAC-MiG MiG-21, which was reverse-engineered as the Chengdu J-7 (and export F-7). The latest version to be exported is the 9.1-tonne (max gross weight) F-7MG, featuring a double-delta wing with automatic manoeuvring flaps, and a 65-kN Liyang/Wopen WP-13F turbojet. The F-7MG, which first flew in 1993, is in service in China, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Promising to dominate the rock-bottom market sector, the Chengdu FC-1 (sometimes referred to as the JF-17) is a much larger (12.7-tonne) derivative of the J-7/F-7. It uses the more powerful (80 kN) Klimov RD-93 turbofan, which is based on the RD-33 employed in the twin-engined MiG-29, and is fed via lateral intakes. The product of a joint development and production programme with Pakistan the FC-1 first flew in 2003. Pakistan is expected to buy 150 to 200 FC-1s, and reports indicate that a preliminary batch of 16 has been ordered.

Saab Gripen

The 14-tonne Saab Gripen is the chronological leader of the new-generation European canard-delta fighters. It has the major attractions of affordability and of its presenting a small radar and visible target. It is powered by a single 80.5 kN Volvo Aero RM12 turbofan based on the General Electric F404. The Gripen was designed from the outset for multi-role capability.

Three batches of the domestic JAS39A/B/C/D series have been ordered, totalling 204 aircraft, but defence cutbacks may see the in-service total reduced to 128. With assistance from Britain (including industrial/commercial help from BAE Systems) an order for 28 Gripens (19 single-seaters and nine two-seaters) was obtained from South Africa in 2000. The first of these had its maiden flight in November 2005 and will be delivered for tests in South Africa in August 2006. Production deliveries to the Gripen base at AFB Makhado (formerly Louis Trichardt) are due to begin in 2008.

In the course of 2005 the Czech Republic took delivery of twelve single-seat Gripens and a pair of two-seaters at the start of a ten-year lease. In 2006 Hungary will receive an equal batch (in this case taking wings and tail surfaces from ex-Swedish Air Force JAS39A/Bs) under a similar lease. Such aircraft are referred to informally as A2C Gripens, i.e., A/Bs remanufactured to C/D standard.

Dassault Mirage 2000

The 17.5-tonne Dassault Mirage 2000-5 Mk2, as being remanufactured for Greece from earlier Mirage 2000EGs, is the latest version of the series that entered service in France in 1984, since then almost 600 have been sold to eight air forces. The Mirage 2000 might be regarded conceptually as a smaller brother to the Boeing F-15, since both have outstanding 'top-end' performance. Unlike other lightweight fighters, the Dassault aircraft can achieve Mach 2.2 at up to 50,000 ft.

Future sales prospects appear to centre on Brazil and India. In July 2005 Brazil placed a $ 72 million order for twelve pre-used (ex-French Air Force) Mirage 2000Cs as an interim measure, which may augur well for Dassault in the eventual F-X decision. India already has the earlier Mirage 2000H in service, and in 2000 announced the intention to buy ten more, which was likewise good news for the French company.

Lockheed Martin F-16

By any standards, the Lockheed Martin F-16 is one of the greatest fighters of all time. Over 4200 have been built, including 2231 for the US Air Force. The introduction of conformal fuel tanks on recent export models has led to an increase in its maximum gross weight to 23.6 tonnes

Developed for the UAE's Block 60, or F-16E/F, these conformal tanks are being applied to the F-16I for Israel and are planned for the Block 50-Plus for Greece. Recent orders include ten Block 50-Plus for Chile, twelve Advanced Block 50s for Oman and 48 Block 52s for Poland. By the end of 2005 Greece is expected to place an order for 30 Block 52-Plus with an option on ten more. Thailand had hoped to buy 18 F-16C/Ds, but funding problems have forced it to upgrade its F-16A/Bs instead.

In April 2005 the US Government approved in principle the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, and offers have also been made to India, which could result in the production line being held open beyond the last Polish delivery in 2008. In April 2005 Pakistan lodged a letter of request with Washington for 55 new-build F-16s with an option on 20 more, and this is expected to be translated into a firm contract in late 2006.

Recent F-16 marketing moves include Israeli efforts to sell some of its older aircraft to Romania, and threats from Venezuela to sell its F-16A/Bs to China or Russia. This is a response to the US blocking a deal under which Venezuela would have been the launch customer for the Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) F-16 avionics capability enhancement (ACE) package.

Chengdu J-10

The 19-tonne Chengdu J-10 is believed to have been developed to replace China's J-7 (MiG-21) fighter and Q-5 (MiG-19 derivative) ground attack aircraft. A 'fourth-generation' design, it features a canard-delta configuration and fly-by-wire controls. Despite denials from IAI, the J-10 is widely regarded as a derivative of the latter's ill-fated Lavi, which was abandoned in the late 1980s.

The J-10 is powered by a single 122 kN Saturn/Lyulka AL-31F turbofan, similar to that used in the twin-engined Su-27/30 series. Reports indicate that 100 AL-31Fs have been ordered from Russia, although there have also been references to a local WS-10A engine, possibly a Chinese copy. The first of around ten prototype J-10s flew in 1998, and at least 300 J-10s are expected to be built for domestic use. According to the Pentagon's Military Power of the PRC--2005 report, development of the J-10 was completed in 2004 and fielding will begin this year. Venezuela is one potential customer for what would presumably be designated the F-10.

RAC-MiG MiG-29

Despite its outstanding specific excess power and low-speed handling, post-1990 sales of the MiG-29, powered by two RD-33s, have been disappointing. However, over 1600 have been built, and around 850 remain in service with 27 operators, so the series remains a potentially fruitful target for upgrades. Russia, Belarus, Romania and the Ukraine are offering surplus old-model MiG-29s to African and Middle Eastern air forces. The Russian Air Force plans to upgrade 200 to MiG-29SMT standard, which has been the subject of a sale to the Yemen. An Algerian purchase of the MiG-29SMT has been 'imminent' for years.

The Indian Navy has twelve MiG-29Ks and four two-seat MiG-29KUBs under firm order (with options on 30 more), with deliveries to begin in 2007. The latest developments (MiG-29M and two-seat -29M2) proposed for the Indian Air Force (among others) are based on this navalised 22.4-tonne MiG-29K, which has an enlarged wing and updated avionics. Until recently Venezuela was expected to buy 48 MiG-29Ms and four two-seaters, but an evaluation by the air force has reportedly been highly critical. Rosoboronexport has now made alternative proposals based on the Sukhoi Su27/30 series.

Dassault Rafale

The 24.5-tonne multi-role Dassault Rafale, powered by two 75-kN Snecma M88 engines, is the second of the new-generation European fighters to enter service, following the lightweight Gripen. The French Air Force has a requirement for 234 Rafales and the French Navy 60, but domestic deliveries are slowed by funding limitations, resulting in the 294th aircraft being delivered around 2023.

The first French Navy squadron was declared operational in 2004 aboard the Charles de Gaulle with the F1 production standard Rafale, which has a restricted air-to-air capability. Deliveries of F2 production standard Rafales to the Air Force began in June 2005, adding a significant air-to-ground capability. The F2 will have clearance for the Sagem Aasm (Armement Air-Sol Modulaire) and the MBDA Scalp-EG cruise missile. The first Air Force unit should be operational by late 2006. The F3, due to enter service in 2008, will have the Thales Reco-NG reconnaissance pod, automatic terrain-following radar and clearance for laser-guided bombs, the MBDA AM39 Exocet and the nuclear-armed ASMP-A cruise missile.

Eurofighter Typhoon

The third of the new-generation European fighters is the 23-tonne Typhoon, which has two 90 kN Arrogate EJ200 engines. Over 50 of the first tranche of 148 aircraft have now been delivered to the air forces of Germany, Italy, Spain and Britain. Later batches will add a limited air-to-ground capability to their primary air-to-air role. The basic contract for the dual-role second tranche of 236 aircraft was signed in December 2004, but details of the associated weapons clearance programme are still being worked out. Contracts for two Enhancement Phases (EP1 and EP2) are expected to be signed by mid-2006.

Austria signed for 18 Tranche Two standard Typhoons in 2003. Eurofighter is now offering Turkey a partnership role in the programme, and suggesting that the Typhoon should be seen as an air superiority complement for the F-35 strike fighter, which is how Britain and Italy will use it.

Lockheed Martin F-35

The aircraft that may well dominate the fighter market over the next several decades is the 23-tonne Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), which is intended to combine multi-role capability and stealth with affordability; the latter based on large-scale production.

Nine flight test development aircraft are being built, with the first (US Air Force type) ctol F-35A due to fly by the end of August 2006, the first US Marine Corps stovl F-35B in the final quarter of 2007 and the first big-wing US Navy F-35C in the first quarter of 2009. Production deliveries are to begin in 2008, with the F-35B achieving initial operational capability (IOC) in 2012 and the F-35A and -35C in 2013. Full-rate production (143 per year) is to begin in 2013. The F-35 is now to enter British service in 2014.

Defence economies have already cut US procurement plans to 2443 F-35s (1763 for the US Air Force and a combined total of 680 for the US Navy and Marine Corps), and these numbers may be further reduced by the latest Quadrennial Defense Review. The UK will almost certainly add 150. By the end of 2006 it is hoped to have finalised work-shares with those nations making the first wave of export orders. Recent reports have referred to a baseline unit cost of $ 45 million for the F-35A and $ 55 million for the F-35B.

Boeing F/A- 18E/F

The 30-tonne F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is a multi-role fighter with emphasis on the strike mission and is powered by two 98 kN General Electric F414 engines. The US FY2006 defence budget included a request for 38

aircraft at a unit cost of $ 74 million with spares, reportedly corresponding to a flyaway price of around $ 54 million.

Approximately 250 of the 494 Super Hornets so far ordered by the US Navy have been delivered. The service plans to take that total to 548, including 90 examples of the two-seat EA-18G 'Growler' electronic warfare aircraft, which is scheduled to fly in September 2006 and enter service in 2009. The most likely export customers for the F/A-18E/F are Malaysia and Kuwait, which currently operate the F/A-18C/D Hornet.

Boeing F-15E

Despite its age and lack of stealth, the 36.7-tonne Boeing F-15E Strike Eagle remains a highly marketable series. The first of 40 F-15Ks for South Korea, powered by 129 kN General Electric F110-GE-129 engines, was formally handed over in November 2005, and a follow-on order for 40 more will probably be signed by 2010. In September 2005 the F-15T version beat a later generation of fighters to be selected by Singapore, and a contract for eight aircraft (with options on twelve more) is now under negotiation. Deliveries of the first batch will take place from 2008 to 2010. Further prospects exist in the form of follow-on orders from Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US Air Force.

Sukhoi Su-27/30

Viewed purely as an airframe-engine combination, the 33-tonne Sukhoi Su-27 series closely rivals the F-15E, and at time of writing India's Su-30MKI is the world's only in-service supersonic fighter with thrust vectoring. This family is powered by Saturn/Lyulka AL-31F series engines of up to 147 kN thrust. Following the receipt of 50 earlier models, India is to build up to 140 Su-30MKIs under licence. Likewise, China has received around 100 Su-27/30s (including 24 Su-30MK2s for naval aviation), and is producing 200 Su27SKs as J-11s. The Chinese are reportedly trying to renegotiate the licence to permit a switch to the Su-30MKK, of which 88 are already on order. Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam have all ordered variants of the Su-30MK. Russia is planning to upgrade around 100 existing Su-27s, and Venezuela is threatening to buy 50 Su-27s, if only to annoy America. The top of the range is the 45-tonne Su-32 that is being developed for the maritime strike role.

F/A-22 Raptor

The 36-tonne Lockheed Martin F/A-22 Raptor, powered by 155 kN (class) Pratt & Whitney F119 engines, combines stealth, thrust vectoring and supercruise capability. It is the aircraft on which the US Air Force is relying to ensure total air dominance from the first day of any future war, but it is also the world's most expensive fighter. For the FY2006 defence budget, 24 aircraft were requested at a unit procurement cost of $159 million with spares, indicating a flyaway cost of around $130 million.

The first delivery took place in 1997, and the first squadron of 18 to 24 aircraft is scheduled to attain IOC at Langley AFB, Virginia, at the end of December 2005. On current plans, production will end in FY2008 with the 179th aircraft, closing the line in 2011. However, the US Air Force has proposed that, if the unit price can be brought below $100 million, production should be continued at up to 24 aircraft per year in the four-year period FY2009 to 2012, as the F-35A (the service's other stealth fighter) is not due to reach IOC until 2013. This plan would increase the F/A-22 buy to 275, which is usefully closer to the service's long-term aim of 381 aircraft.