Fast food growth boosts frozen potato consumption.

Potatoes are the most important vegetable crop in the United States. The crop's 1999 farm receipts totaled $2.7 billion, or 18% of all vegetable and melon farm cash receipts.

Potatoes, rich in vitamin C, potassium, and other vital nutrients, are a staple food in the United States.

The 1999 per capita consumption of vegetables was 454 pounds, fresh-weight equivalent, of which 142 pounds, or 31%, were potatoes. Pound for pound among U.S. crops, potatoes are topped only by wheat flour in importance in the U.S. diet. The most significant changes in potato consumption over the past several decades have been the rise of frozen potato use and the decline of fresh potato use.

In 1960, U.S. per capita consumption of fresh potatoes was 81 pounds (farm weight) per year, while per capita consumption of all processed potatoes was only 25 pounds per year. By 1971, per capita consumption of all processed potatoes, driven largely by frozen products, surpassed fresh potato consumption. While consumption of fresh potatoes has averaged about 50 pounds per person since 1975, consumption of frozen potato products rose steadily to 63 pounds in 1999 (fig. 1). Dehydrated potatoes (14 pounds), potato chips (16 pounds), and canned potatoes (2 pounds) represented smaller segments of the market.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

The growth of the fast food industry spurred the shift toward frozen potato products. USDA's 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) shows that most U.S. fresh potato consumption--as well as consumption of potato chips, dehydrated potatoes, and canned potatoes--occurs at home. Frozen french fries are sold predominately for away-from-home consumption, with fast food establishments accounting for 67% of the frozen french fry market, followed by a 13% share for restaurants.

CSFII data show distinct regional variations in the use of potato products. French fry consumption is much higher in the South and Midwest than in the Northeast and West. Consumers in the Midwestern States consume more fresh potatoes, potato chips, and dehydrated potatoes than consumers elsewhere. Rural residents tend to consume more potato products than consumers living in metropolitan cities and suburban areas.

CSFII data also show that African-Americans consume more potato chips and french fries, on a per capita basis, than other Americans. Seniors favor consumption of fresh and canned potatoes, while teenagers consume more chips and french fries than other age groups.

These findings are taken from an analysis of the 1994-96 CSFII, USDA's most recent food consumption survey. Each year of the CSFII's 3-year data set comprises a nationally representative sample of noninstitutionalized persons residing in 50 States and Washington, DC.

Survey respondents were interviewed in person on two nonconsecutive days and asked to recall all the food and beverages they had consumed in the last 24 hours. More than 15,300 individuals provided dietary data for both days. The respondents provided a list of foods consumed as well as information on where, when, and how much of each food was eaten. The survey collected an array of economic, social, and demographic characteristics for each respondent.

USDA's Agricultural Research Service (ARS) has developed recipes that list ingredients and their quantities for over 7,300 foods. For each food, ARS has also developed the number of servings relative to USDA Food Guide Pyramid dietary recommendations. Servings data comprise the five major food groups--grain, vegetable, fruit, dairy, and meat--as well as their subgroups. For example, the vegetable group has six subgroups, including potatoes. The ARS recipe files include 33 potato products. These 33 products are grouped into six categories: fresh potatoes, chips, debydrated potatoes, frozen french fries (called french fries), other frozen potatoes (such as hash browns and Tater Tots), and canned potatoes (see box on potato use in the United States).

Our analysis of the CSFII data shows that fresh potatoes and french fries are the two most frequently consumed potato products in the United States. On a given day, more than a quarter of consumers (26%) ate fresh potatoes and 13% ate french fries (fig. 2). French fries accounted for about 95% of the total servings of all frozen potatoes. About 1 in every 12 consumers (8%) ate potato chips on a given day. Other potato products, including dehydrated, other frozen potatoes, and canned potatoes, were consumed less frequently.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Fresh Potatoes Prepared At Home, French Fries Prepared Away

Eating out is increasingly popular in the United States. In 1970, American consumers spent 33% of total food expenditures away from home. By 1999, that number had risen to 47.5%. USDA survey data show that fast food places and restaurants each accounted for only 3% of Americans' total caloric intakes during 1977-78. By 1994-96, fast food places accounted for 11% of Americans' caloric intakes, and restaurants accounted for 8%.

This study classifies foods as "at home" and "away from home" based on where the food was obtained or prepared, not where it was consumed. For example, a bagged lunch prepared at home and consumed at work is classified as food at home. A commercially prepared pizza delivered and consumed at home is classified as food away from home.

Food at home is generally obtained at a retail store, such as a supermarket, grocery store, or a convenience store. Food consumed at other people's homes is also classified as food at home. Food away from home is generally purchased from commercial foodservice establishments but can also be obtained in such places as school cafeterias, community feeding programs, or child / adult care centers. In this study, fast food places are foodservice establishments where food is ordered and picked up at a counter, restaurants are places that have wait staff, and school cafeterias include daycare facilities and summer camps. The category "other" is a catchall category that includes community feeding centers, bars/taverns, vending machines, and other sources of foods.

CSFII data show that about 2% of consumers did not eat any at-home food on a given day (table 1). More than half of consumers (55%) ate at least one away-from-home food on a given day. The most-frequented foodservice outlets were fast food establishments, with 31% of consumers purchasing at least one food item from these places, followed by restaurants, with 17% of consumers purchasing at least one food item there.

Seven percent of consumers obtained at least one food item from a school cafeteria on any given day, and 13% of consumers obtained at least one food item from other sources.

During 1994-96, the bulk of fresh potatoes, potato chips, dehydrated potatoes, and canned potatoes were purchased at retail stores for home consumption (fig. 3). In 1994-96, 21% of fresh potatoes were prepared away from home, mostly by restaurants. Like fresh potatoes, 21% of potato chips were obtained from away-from-home sources, with other sources accounting for 9% of the market. Vending machines, included in other sources, had a 6% share of the chips market. Eleven percent of dehydrated potatoes were obtained away from home, with 4% from fast food places. Away-from-home sources accounted for 20% of the total canned potato consumption, with a 15% share for restaurants and a 5% share for fast food places.

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

Away-from-home sources dominated the consumption of french fries with an 88% market share during 1994-96. Fast food places accounted for 67% of french fries, and the amount of french fries obtained at restaurants, 13%, was more than the amount purchased at retail stores, 11%. School cafeterias accounted for 6% of french fry consumption.

Slightly more than half of other frozen potatoes were purchased for home consumption. Other frozen potatoes include such products as Tater Tots, homefries, and potato patties. Fast food places had a 23% share of the market for other frozen potatoes, followed by schools with a 12% share and restaurants with a 9% share.

Potato Dishes Vary By Region and Urbanization

CSFII data show distinct patterns in the consumption of potato products among the four Census regions--Northeast (20% of population), Midwest (24%), South (35%), and West (22%). With a 24% share of the U.S. population, the Midwestern States accounted for 26% of french fry consumption, 28% of fresh potato consumption, 29% of chips consumption, and 34% of dehydrated potato consumption (table 1).

By dividing the consumption share by the population share, we can compare relative consumption, as shown in table 2. For example, table 2 shows that Midwestern States had the highest relative consumption of fresh potatoes, chips and dehydrated potatoes.

Southern consumers ate more french fries than consumers in each of the other three regions. The Southern States represent 35% of the overall U.S. population and accounted for 42% of french fry consumption, 37% of other frozen potato consumption, and 37% of canned potato consumption. Consumption of french fries and other frozen potatoes was lowest in the Northeast.

About 47% of the U.S. population resides in suburban areas, 32% live in metropolitan areas, and 21% live in rural areas (table 1). Rural area residents ate more potato products, except for debydrated products, than suburban or metro residents (table 2). On a per capita basis, rural area consumers ate 2.7 times as many canned potatoes as suburban consumers. Consumption of fresh potatoes in rural areas was about 24% more than in suburban areas and almost 50% more than in metropolitan areas.

... and By Race and Ethnicity 

According to the 1994-96 CSFII, non-Hispanic Whites represented 73% of the U.S. population and, compared with other racial/ethnic groups, favored potatoes in fresh, dehydrated, and other frozen potatoes. Relative to their proportion of the population, non-Hispanic Whites tended to consume slightly fewer french fries and canned potatoes (fig. 4). Non-Hispanic Blacks represented about 13% of the U.S. population. Compared with other racial/ethnic groups, this group reported the highest consumption of potato chips and french fries but the lowest consumption of fresh and canned potatoes.

[FIGURE 4 OMITTED]

Hispanics tended to eat fewer potatoes than other racial/ethnic groups. Hispanics represented about 11% of the U.S. population and do not appear to have strong preferences or dislikes for any particular potato product. Hispanics accounted for between 7 and 9% of the various potato products consumed in the United States.

Consumption of Chips And Fries Independent Of Income

Food consumption is determined by several factors, including income. Based on consumers' responses to an increase in income, foods can be classified as inferior goods (consumption declines when income increases), normal goods (consumption rises by a proportion smaller than the rise in income), or luxury goods (consumption rises at a proportion larger than the rise in income).

Consumption of staple foods, such as cereals and potatoes, usually rises with income, but the rise is smaller than the increase in income. Within a food, there exist products of different qualities that may respond differently to a rise in household income. For example, consumers having more to spend on food may decide to consume more steaks and less ground beef. Similarly, households of different income levels may consume different amounts of potato products.

We classified households into three income groups. About 40% of households had high incomes--that is, incomes exceeding 350% of the Federal poverty level. (The Federal poverty level was $15,141 for a family of four in 1995.) Forty-two percent of households had incomes falling between 131 and 350% of poverty level. Nineteen percent of households fell into the low-income group, with incomes no more than 130% of the poverty level.

CSFII data show that consumption of chips and french fries did not vary much with income. Low income households consumed, per person, the least amount of fresh potatoes, chips, and canned potatoes (table 2). Households with incomes between 131 and 350% of the poverty level had the highest per capita consumption of fresh and frozen potato products. High income households consumed more canned potatoes, per person, than other income groups.

Gender and Age Affect Potato Consumption

Males, perhaps because of their larger caloric intake, ate more of all six potato products than did females. This statistic may also reflect a long-held perception by some diet-conscious females that potatoes are a high-calorie, diet-unfriendly food. Males ate about 70% more chips, french fries, and other frozen potatoes than females (table 2).

Relative consumption of fresh and canned potatoes increased with age, with seniors age 60 and older reporting the highest consumption for these two products. Consumption of chips and french fries initially rose with age, peaking, not surprisingly, in the teenage years, and then declined, with seniors consuming fewer chips than even toddlers.

Consumption of other frozen potatoes peaked at the 6-to-11-year-old age group (children in elementary school) and then declined with age. Such products as Tater Tots tend to be popular in school lunches and breakfasts. Seniors ate fewer other frozen potatoes than toddlers. Consumption of dehydrated potato products peaked for males during the teenage years. This statistic is likely an extension of the popularity of potato chips and reflects the consumption of extruded chip products and those made from potato flakes.

Outlook for Potato Consumption

Over the last few decades, dining out has grown in popularity for Americans. Close to half of consumer food expenditures are now spent on eating out. A number of factors contribute to this trend: a growing number of women employed outside the home, more two-earner households, higher incomes, more affordable and convenient fast food outlets, increased advertising and promotion by large foodservice chains, and smaller American households.

These factors are expected to continue to boost eating out. As the bulk of fresh potatoes are consumed at home, and a large proportion of frozen french fries is consumed away from home, increased eating out will favor consumption of french fries at the expense of fresh potatoes (see box on nutrient comparisons).

Other factors should be considered, however. Elderly people had the highest consumption of fresh and canned potatoes and the lowest consumption of potato chips, french fries, and other frozen potato products. On one hand, with the aging of the Nation's population, consumption patterns could begin to favor fresh potatoes. On the other hand, consumption patterns acquired during young ages may change little as consumers age. Today's teenagers could continue heavy consumption of french fries as they age. The future, therefore, is unclear with respect to the consumption growth of fresh potatoes and french fries.

Table 1
Potato Consumption Varies With Income, Gender, Region, and Other
Demographics

                                                       Potatoes

                                                                 Dehy-
Item                           Population (1)   Fresh   Chips   drated

                                                  Percent

Food sources:
  At home                           98            79      79       89
  Away from home                    55            21      21       11
    Fast food                       31             6       7        4
    Restaurant                      17            12       1        1
    School                           7             1       3        2
    Other (2)                       13             2       9        2

Census region:
  Northeast                         20            18      20       16
  Midwest                           24            28      29       34
  South                             35            35      34       35
  West                              22            20      17       15

Metropolitan Statistical
      Area status:
  Metropolitan                      32            27      31       33

  Suburban                          47            47      44       47
  Rural                             21            26      25       20

Race/ethnic origin:
  White, non-Hispanic               73            80      73       78
  Black, non-Hispanic               13             8      17       13
  Hispanic                          11             9       7        7
  Others                             4             3       3        3

Household income as a
      percentage of poverty:
  0 - 130 percent                   19            17      18       22
  131 - 350 percent                 42            45      42       41
  351 percent and above             39            39      40       38

Gender and age:
  Male:
    All                             49            57      62       53
    2 - 5 years                      5             2       3        3
    6 - 11 years                     5             3       6        4
    12 - 19 years                    6             6      10        9
    20 - 59 years                   27            36      40       31
    60 years and older               7            10       3        7

  Female:
    All                             51            43      39       47
    2 - 5 years                      5             2       3        3
    6 - 11 years                     4             2       5        4
    12 - 19 years                    6             4       6        5
    20 - 59 years                   28            25      22       29
    60 years and older               9            10       2        6

                                      Potatoes

                               Frozen
                               french   Other
Item                           fries    frozen   Canned

                                        Percent

Food sources:
  At home                        12       53       80
  Away from home                 88       48       20
    Fast food                    67       23        5
    Restaurant                   13        9       15
    School                        6       12        0
    Other (2)                     2        3        1

Census region:
  Northeast                      16       13       20
  Midwest                        26       22       24
  South                          42       37       37
  West                           19       28       18

Metropolitan Statistical
      Area status:
  Metropolitan                   31       33       30
  Suburban                       46       41       31
  Rural                          23       26       39

Race/ethnic origin:
  White, non-Hispanic            70       77       72
  Black, non-Hispanic            16       12        4
  Hispanic                        9        9        8
  Others                          4        3       16

Household income as a
      percentage of poverty:
  0 - 130 percent                19       19       16
  131 - 350 percent              42       53       41
  351 percent and above          39       28       43

Gender and age:
  Male:
    All                          62       63       60
    2 - 5 years                   3        4        2
    6 - 11 years                  5       10        3
    12 - 19 years                12       10        5
    20 - 59 years                39       35       38
    60 years and older            3        4       13

  Female:
    All                          38       38       40
    2 - 5 years                   3        4        3
    6 - 11 years                  5        6        2
    12 - 19 years                 9        4        3
    20 - 59 years                20       20       22
    60 years and older            2        4       10

(1) The "population column indicates the share of the U.S. population
that ate at least one food item on any given day.

(2) Six percent of chips came from vending machines, which are included
in the category "other".

Source: CSFII, 1994-96, 2-day dietary recall data.
Table 2
Relative Shares Highlight Differences in Potato Consumption

                                         Potatoes

                                               Frozen
                                      Dehy-    french   Other    Can-
Demographic profile   Fresh   Chips   drated   fries    frozen   ned

                                        Percent

Census region:
  Northeast             91     101      83       71       68      105
  Midwest              118     125     145      108       93      101
  South                 99      97     101      120      105      107
  West                  90      77      66       86      127       84

Metropolitan
      Statistical
      Area status:
  Metropolitan          85      98     102       98      103       95
  Suburban             100      94     100       98       87       67
  Rural                124     117      96      107      125      183

Race/ethnic origin:
  White, non-
      Hispanic         110     101     107       97      106       99
  Black, non-
      Hispanic          64     133     100      131       94       33
  Hispanic              90      68      65       89       85       77
  Others                69      64      65       95       59      863

Household income as
      a percentage
      of poverty:
  0 - 130 percent       87      96     113       99       99       85
  131 - 350 percent    107     101      97      101      126       98
  351 percent and
      above             98     101      96       99       72      110

Gender and age:
  Male:
    All                117     126     109      127      128      123
    2 - 5 years         44      62      67       65       81       32
    6 - 11 years        59     127      76      111      216       62
    12 - 19 years      110     178     154      213      169       94
    20 - 59 years      132     147     116      144      131      141
    60 years and
      older            153      39      96       36       53      185

  Female:
    All                 84      75      91       75       73       78
    2 - 5 years         40      69      62       60       77       57
    6 - 11 years        50     112      91      107      142       54
    12 - 19 years       70     114      96      152       76       53
    20 - 59 years       90      80     103       73       72       77
    60 years and
      older            114      20      64       21       39      114

Source: CSFII, 1994-96, 2-day dietary recall data.

References

Lin, B.H., J. Guthrie, and E. Frazao. Away-From-Home Foods Increasingly Important to Quality of American Diet, Agricultural Information Bulletin No. 749. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1999.

Plummer, C. "U.S. Potato Briefing Room." U.S. Dept of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, http:/ /www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/potatoes/

Putnam, J., and J. Allshouse. Food Consumption, Prices, and Expenditures, 1970-99. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, forthcoming.

Talburt, W.F. (ed) Potato Processing, 4th Edition. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., 1987.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service. 1994-96 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals and 1994-96 Diet and Health Knowledge Survey. 1998.

Jack Ampuja Independent Consultant