Farm issues on top: look for agricultural conflicts, question of subsidies to dominate stump talk. (Politics).

This year's political agenda includes issues that will guide the nation's policy. Among those that stand out most are the upcoming mid-term elections, the crisis in the Mexican countryside and pending structural reforms, particularly energy and fiscal reform. The nature of these issues has created the perception in some social circles that 2003 will be a year that marks the course for the rest of President Vicente Fox's term.

DECISIVE ELECTIONS

Almost all attention will be focused on the fight for the 500 Chamber of Deputies seats that will be up for grabs in July. For Fox, these elections are an opportunity for his administration and its proposal for change to receive a stamp of approval. If his National Action Party (PAN) wins a majority in the lower house, Fox would have the leverage to push through his reforms and the PAN will ultimately have the say over federal legislation.

On the other hand, the polls could be a perfect chance for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to show that, in spite of losing the presidency in 2000, it is still the country's main political force. But voters might decide to continue Latin America's leftist trend--seen most notably in Brazil-- by substantially increasing the presence of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) in Congress.

With such overwhelming pressures, the PAN is almost certainly going to rely heavily on President Fox's charismatic campaign style, and the idea that his party needs a legislative majority to fulfill his promises for long-awaited change.

The PRI will likely use to its advantage the Fox administration's mistakes and the lack of results since it came to power two years ago. For its part, the PRD will present itself to Mexicans as the only choice for real change, painting the PAN and PRI as a continuation of the authoritarian politics that ruled Mexico for much of the last 75 years.

It's worth mentioning that despite the overwhelming significance of the upcoming elections, they will take place transparently and under the close watch of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), which is respected by all the nation's main political forces. Protests by anti-government groups don't have the power or the unity to cause political chaos, though they may be able to influence election results.

CRISIS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE

Tariff removals on most agricultural goods as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement that went into effect on Jan. 1 will worsen the countryside's decades-long crisis. Steps to confront the problem have just begun to be taken and without a doubt, results will be a long time in coming.

It's foreseeable that farmers' protests will dominate the political scene, particularly this year, but not only because of the removal of import duties on U.S. and Canadian agro goods except corn, beans and milk. Interest groups look forward to pushing their agendas during election years when politicians are busy cuddling up to a variety of social sectors and throwing around promises in the struggle to win votes.

With this in mind, it can be expected that once the process of choosing party candidates is completed in May, agro groups like the National Campesino Confederation (CNC), a strong PRI supporter--will temper their belligerence and become more open to negotiation and dialogue with the government.

On this front, the Fox government is already gaining significant ground. At a Jan. 5 forum organized by the CNC, Economy Secretary Luis Emesto Derbez appointed himself as the group's first PAN member. That declaration will surely not pass unnoticed by the PRI's executive council, which will evaluate whether it should significantly increase the number of PRI candidates from rural areas.

Let us hope this year of opportunity for the main political actors doesn't impede substantial advances in the consolidation of the country's democratic change.

Joel Estudillo Rend6n is a member of the board of the Mexican Institute far Political Studies.