Fallout in India: a report from Dehra Doon.

When India conducted its nuclear tests in May, my parents and my sister both called immediately from the United States. They were in a state of panic about the danger we might be in. Accustomed to the political grandstanding of India's ruling party (the Hindu nationalist BJP), I was more exasperated than alarmed.

When Pakistan conducted its test some days later, however, I was suddenly terrified. Grandstanding or not, I realized things could spiral out of control in a matter of minutes and our home in Dehra Doon - situated right between Delhi and Pakistan - could be obliterated. Given the present level of tension between the two countries, it is not so unlikely a scenario.

To anyone with historical perspective on the relationship between India and Pakistan, their nuclear testing was predictable. The bloody riots that accompanied partition fifty years ago set the tone for the distrust and hostility that persist today, even among the otherwise enlightened sectors of both societies.

Since the 1971 war between India and Pakistan (in which East Pakistan became Bangladesh), there has been a clear desire on the part of some Pakistani army officials to "dismember" India. Pakistan has given covert aid to rebel forces in the border state of Punjab, who hope to form an independent state of "Khalistan." Kashmir, the so-called "jewel of India," has for many years been the scene of hostilities as both countries have fought for what they claim is theirs.

To complicate matters still more, Pakistan has a strong military and political ally in China while India's relationship with the Chinese has been hostile, especially since their 1962 war. By Indian reckoning, Chinese nuclear capability translates into Pakistani nuclear capability. India's sense of insecurity in the region is real. Furthermore, the collapse of the Soviet Union brought an end to its substantial support for India. Thus, the thinking of India's military strategists has increasingly shifted: India is too enormous to be dependent on outside help and ought to go nuclear. Until recently, the political establishment, more aware of the negative fallout internationally, resisted.

There was, of course, 1974, when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi - in a bid to divert attention from her domestic problems-approved India's first nuclear test. At the time, Pakistan was still recovering from the 1971 war and posed no conceivable threat to India's security. Mrs. Gandhi's decision was aimed at consolidating her electoral votes. No Pakistani government could last, however, without following suit, and immediately Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto told the country's top scientists to develop Pakistan's own bomb.

The next two decades saw enormous technological developments by both countries. At the same time, China was outpacing them on every front. When China conducted tests in 1995, India's nuclear establishment pushed for a "fitting" response; three prime ministers (Narasimha Rao in 1995, Deve Gowda in '96, and I.K. Gujral in '97) turned them down. But when the BJP party took control earlier this year - forming a weak, unstable government that could topple at a moment's notice - it sought to consolidate its power by nuclear testing. And when it did, the immediate reaction at home was all that the BJP could have wished: euphoria and dancing in the streets. Even opposition leaders had to keep their negative views quiet, for.fear of sounding antinational.

But with the Pakistani explosions, the opposition rediscovered its voice. They branded the BJP immature, said it was responsible for igniting a new arms race in the region, and argued that India should be "committed to economic and social development" rather than to nuclear weapons.

The common people, at least in the cities, are tense and worried, as nuclear war now seems, for the first time, a distinct possibility. One afternoon my husband and I were cussing the situation in our front room. The windows were open and our neighbor was outside washing his car. Privacy being an unknown concept in India, he turned off the hose to hear our conversation. When I came out a few minutes later, he was eager to add his two cents.

"There will be a war now," he said emphatically. "They are all fanatics in Pakistan. They believe in war!"

"Are we any different here?" I asked, a bit nervously, for my neighbor is an ardent BJP supporter.

"But Pakistan has the backing of the Arab world," he continued. "And don't forget China. We had no choice but to test our bombs."

My neighbor's view is a common one, especially in BJP strongholds like the city in which we live. In the rural areas, however, where my husband travels extensively, it is difficult to get people interested in a sustained discussion of the issue. Drinking water and firewood concern most villagers far more than vague threats of a nuclear holocaust.

As for the economic sanctions imposed on India following the tests, economists here believe that while the loss of foreign investments (totaling approximately 10 percent of the Indian GNP) may create serious dislocations in the pace of development, they will not last. India is now one of the five largest markets in the world and no major economic power can afford to stay out. According to the Economic Times (May 13), U.S. companies intend to invest $11.49 billion in India this year, and most European nations, while condemning the tests, have refused to impose sanctions. If the United States and Japan continue in their strong stand, so the thinking goes here, there are many European countries who will be happy to step in. Nonetheless, by June 23, the Indian rupee had fallen to a record low against the dollar.

The peace movement here is small and not widely covered by the press; it is seen as a fringe group. The older generation of Gandhians have mostly faded away (although some are prominent supporters of the bomb!), while the new generation is largely focused on development issues. They emphasize the absurdity of an arms race in the region where the basic needs of so many millions remain unmet.

The most recent sermons exhorting India to comply with a test-ban treaty, which is clearly biased in favor of the nuclear "haves," are not taken seriously here. Even total pacifists, while acknowledging the insanity of pursuing the arms race, bristle at the temerity of the United States - the only nation to have used nuclear weapons - telling India what to do. Why, people ask, does the United States refuse to destroy its own stockpile of weapons or even to make an international commitment not to use them? President Bill Clinton's scolding notwithstanding, India seems bent on pursuing its own course, and one can only pray that the instinct for self-preservation, if nothing else, will kick in before it's too late.

Jo McGowan and her family live in Dehra Doon, India. She is the founder of Karuna Vihar, a school for children with special needs.