Facing L.A.'s Affordable Housing Crisis.

POPULATION experts agree that part of L.A. County would practically have to tumble into the Pacific Ocean to slow the flood of people flocking to Los Angeles. Some even predict that the huge influx of newcomers will double the city's population by 2010. A large number of them will be low-income, workers. This means that L.A. could face a housing crisis of major proportions.

According to a recent study by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), more people are being packed into fewer housing units in Los Angeles than ever. Nearly a quarter million households in Los Angeles are overcrowded. The study revealed that at least two people are living in one room, and seven or more persons in a two-bedroom apartment.

In 1998, HUD had 2,000 spots available for rental subsidies under its Section 8 program. Those who qualify are given vouchers. Nearly 200,000 applied for the scant few spots. Even this figure almost certainly understates the housing crunch for the poor. There are probably uncounted thousands more renters crammed into substandard apartments in South Central L.A. and East L.A. and parts of the San Fernando Valley.

Los Angeles has met the crisis by building fewer low-income housing units than in any other major city in the country. About 12,000 new housing units are currently being built yearly in L.A. County. This is a big drop from the yearly average of 40,000 new units built during the 1980s.

During the L.A. mayoral primary, Steve Soboroff was the only mayoral candidate that publicly sounded the alarm. He advocated that the city create a $100 million annual low-income housing fund. Though Soboroff didn't say where those dollars would come from, the assumption is that state and federal officials and private developers would bankroll it.

The other big problem is how and where to build low- and moderate-income housing. While state law mandates that local governments come up with housing proposals for more low- and moderate-income housing, there are no real enforcement provisions to compel officials to take action. They know that almost nothing angers middle- and upper-income suburban homeowners more than proposals to build low-income housing in their neighborhoods. The not-in-my-backyard phobia is embedded deep in the mindset of many L.A. officials.

But a new Senate bill could help change that. It gives local officials five years to develop housing plans that meet the needs of low-income residents. If they foot-drag and fail to meet the deadline, the state would have the power to withhold up to $1.5 million in gas tax revenues from them yearly. Their lost revenue would then be ladled out to those cities and counties that have complied with the deadline. It's hardly a radical measure. It does not say that local officials must build housing, only that they must have a plan. And the prospect of losing $1.5 million in L.A.'s swollen multibillion-dollar annual budget is hardly much incentive for local officials to act on such a politically incendiary issue.

Still, it's a start, and the Legislature should speedily pass the bill. But local officials who readily comply with the law without the threat of state-imposed financial penalties still face the dilemma of where to get the money to build the needed housing. The two mayoral candidates, the City Council and the L.A. County Board of Supervisors should pick up and run with the Soboroff proposal. They must push Washington to earmark more funds and increase tax incentives to developers to build more low-income housing units, provide more money for rental-assistance programs and launch a crash program to rehabilitate dilapidated, crumbling apartments.

They must push for changes to zoning laws to permit building of more multiple housing units. This could include building mixed-use projects with commercial and retail space on the ground floor and low-income housing units on the upper floors.

The Bush administration appears to recognize the peril in ignoring the acute low-income housing needs in cities such as Los Angeles. His much-touted faith-based initiative plan permits HUD to partner with community groups to provide funds to build or refurbish apartment and housing units.

Bush also proposes a "Renewing the Dream tax credit" in his budget. The aim is to prod developers to build more low-income housing. The goal is 100,000 new homes in low-income areas over the next five years. This is probably way too ambitious, given the still-powerful reluctance of many developers to jump into the low-income housing market, and the equally strong reluctance of many local officials to aggressively push them to build more affordable housing. Yet, it's a start in the right direction.

L.A. city and county officials constantly boast that L.A. is a great place to live. Now they must make sure that everyone here has a place to live.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is a radio commentator and the author of "The Crisis in Black and White.