FROZEN ASSETS LOCAL FARMERS HIT HARD BY WEATHER, BUT ECONOMY SHOULD WITHSTAND IMPACT.

Byline: ERIC LEACH Staff Writer

SIMI VALLEY - While fruit growers statewide are still reeling from the recent cold snap that ruined crops, and shoppers could see higher prices in the produce section, the frost shouldn't have a major impact on the local economy, experts say.

Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast in Santa Barbara, said the diverse economy and the wide variety of crops produced in the state should prevent major problems for the general population.

``It's a big hit and it will have some impact,'' he said. ``But it doesn't bring agriculture in California to its knees.''

State agriculture officials said the damage could reach around $1 billion, particularly to the citrus crop. The total crop value in California is around $32 billion a year.

In Ventura County, the annual crop value is more than $1 billion, while preliminary damage estimates were around $1 million.

Schniepp said even though agriculture is a major industry in the county, nonfarm employers dominate the economy, including retail, real estate, manufacturing, technology, business services and government, including the Navy.

While prices in the grocery stores could be higher with supplies limited by the damage, competition from other areas of the nation and world could help keep costs in check for consumers.

``There is tremendous global competition in this area,'' Schniepp said.

He and others said if prices rise high enough for oranges or some other products, shoppers might simply change their buying habits.

Johnny Johnston, the county's chief executive officer, said the frost was a huge blow to local farmers but the county as a whole should be able to withstand the impact.

``If you are a farmer, it's a real problem,'' he said. ``If your avocado orchard got wiped out, it's huge.

``We have a diverse economy,'' he continued. ``I don't expect it to have a significant long-term effect on the overall economy. The market is worldwide. People start buying different products if the price is beyond their comfort level.''

Meanwhile, growers such as Steve Barnard are still trying to recover. He lost thousands of avocados as a result of frost in his Santa Paula groves.

``We've lost a large percentage of the crop that will have a zero value,'' he said, predicting prices will go up substantially.

The California Avocado Commission said it will take weeks before industry experts can determine how much fruit has been damaged, but early reports indicate 10 percent to 20 percent of the 2007 projected 400-million-pound crop will be lost.

Meeting demand

On the other hand, commission officials said California growers should be able to meet the consumer demand, including commitments to retailers for the Super Bowl on Feb. 4, when more avocados are consumed than any other day of the year. Barnard also said avocados from Chile and Mexico are likely to help meet the demand for guacamole for that day.

Still, the frost impact will be very hard on some local communities, Bernard and other agriculture experts said.

There will be less work available for fruit pickers, packers, truck drivers and companies that supply growers in some parts of California, particularly citrus-growing areas hard-hit by the frost in the San Joaquin Valley, he said.

Earl McPhail, the county's agriculture commissioner, said while the county's overall economy is diverse, the agriculture sector clearly has received a devastating blow.

``It will have a tremendous effect on some parts of the economy,'' he said. ``Right now we have a lot of people out of work in the farm community. ... We do know the consumer is going to be paying more, but for how long, that's a big question.''

Strawberries, the county's largest crop, suffered significant damage, with around 70 percent of the berries that were on the plants ruined by the frost, authorities said. This is expected to reduce the supply at the markets for the next few weeks and drive the price up.

But the strawberry harvest, which extends late into the spring, has time to recover.

Loss of income

However, citrus and avocado growers said the damage could mean the loss of income for a year or several years. Some have crop insurance, which can help, and there might be low-interest loans available under a federal disaster declaration.

Steve Lyle, director of public affairs for the California Department of Food and Agriculture, said state officials are trying to assess the damage and can't predict exactly what will happen in the future.

``We don't know the extent of the impact. The basic model of supply and demand tells us there will be less supply than a couple of weeks ago,'' he said. ``But there is no way to know how the marketplace will react to the outcome when the outcome is known.''

Suburban growers

The frost also affected people who grow fruit in their own suburban yards.

Mark Koscinski, who lives in the Wood Ranch area of Simi Valley, is not a professional grower but has grapefruit, lemon, tangerine, orange, lime and avocado trees in his backyard orchard.

``I'm trying to determine what to look for in terms of damaged fruit,'' he said, looking at the brown stems and darkened leaves on his avocado trees and leaves dried and curled up on his citrus trees.

``It's discouraging,'' he said. ``I planted these trees about seven years ago and they were in full production.''

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CAPTION(S):

3 photos

Photo:

(1 -- color) no caption (frozen orange)

Rich Pedroncelli/Associated Press

(2) Mark Koscinski has citrus and avocado trees in his backyard orchard in Simi Valley that were damaged by cold weather.

(3) A baby lemon tree in Mark Koscinski's backyard orchard in Simi Valley was damaged by the recent cold weather. ``It's discouraging,'' he said, having planted the trees seven years ago.

Joe Binoya/Special to the Daily News