FRACTIOUS PRIMARIES WORRY GOP LEADERS\GOP leaders fear benefit for Clinton.

Byline: David Hess and Brigid Schulte Knight-Ridder Tribune News

The muddled outcome of the early Republican presidential primaries is sparking concern among party figures that the ongoing free-for-all could play right into President Clinton's hands.

In the February round of primaries and caucuses, none of the major GOP contenders has burst from the pack. With crucial tests coming up over the next two weeks in the South, New England, New York, Oregon and Colorado, the prospect for still another round of inconclusive results is clear.

At this stage, magazine publisher Steve Forbes has collected 60 convention delegates, television commentator Pat Buchanan 37, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole 35, and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander 10. It will take 996 to get the nomination at the party convention in August.

If none of the candidates can crank up the momentum to break away in the South Carolina primary Saturday, or in one of the major races (in Georgia or New England) on Tuesday, they could begin to do some real damage to each other over the course of the primary season, according to party operatives.

"There is a danger there, that Clinton could benefit," said Vin Weber, a former Minnesota congressman and now co-chairman of Bob Dole's presidential campaign. "The Democrats are feeling pretty elated, but I think it's still a bit premature to say how it'll all come out."

Republican consultant Ann Stone, a leader of the party's abortion-rights wing, agreed.

"There is a definite reason to be afraid," she said, mindful that some party moderates have even entertained the unthinkable concept of backing Clinton in the fall. "It is so muddy right now. We are hoping they can solve things between now and the convention."

As the party pros wrung their hands over the bruising fight among their presidential hopefuls, the candidates themselves went about the business Wednesday of carrying on the campaign.

At home in New Jersey, Forbes tried to rise above the fray by echoing Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan: "Despite the fears and anxieties that are in our land today, we can turn (our) problems into opportunities and once again make America that shining city on the hill."

Forbes was scheduled to campaign in South Carolina on Thursday.

Already in South Carolina, Dole and Buchanan duked it out over trade policy. Buchanan's visit to a closed textile mill was supposed to be a metaphor for the burden of free trade on working men and women. He called the abandoned mill a "victim of NAFTA," the North American Free Trade Agreement, and sniped at Dole as "the bellhop of the Business Roundtable," a group of pro-trade business executives.

Dole, on the other hand, shook hands with assembly-line workers at a new BMW automobile plant in South Carolina, touting his intention to "balance the budget, cut taxes for families with children, and (promote) growth and opportunity and jobs."

Alexander, after a poor showing Tuesday night, struggled to keep his candidacy alive, focusing on South Carolina and Tuesday's Georgia primary.

Some Republicans were hopeful that the ongoing scrap could clear the air and even enhance the survivor's ability to frame the issues in the fall and sharpen the GOP's message to voters.

"Yes, it could make some people at the White House happy," said South Carolina Republican chairman Henry McMaster, a Columbia lawyer. "But I don't think a good fight necessarily weakens us. It could be healthy, because when it's all over, the average citizen could feel good about having been part of an important process, getting their own views aired. And, remember, we're not fighting over whether to cut taxes, but over how much to cut."

A lot depends on who emerges as the virtual nominee and dominant force at the convention, assuming the primaries don't produce a clear winner.

Alison Renteln, chairperson of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, said she attended a recent meeting of high-ranking state Republicans who, she said, were "appalled at the idea" of Buchanan as the party nominee.

"These were mostly conservative people," Renteln said, "and they are put off by what they called his extremist views. They think he is ruining the image of the Republican Party. They are simply horrified by his success" in the early races.

Besides their philosophical aversion to him, Renteln said, the more practical-minded party stalwarts felt his candidacy would drag down the whole Republican ticket in the fall election against Clinton.

If Buchanan became the front-runner and the strongest presence at the convention, the one person who nearly every party operative thinks could whip Clinton hands-down might conceivably be drawn into the race - retired Gen. Colin Powell, who bowed out of the competition last fall.

"If Powell thought the only thing standing between Buchanan and the nomination was him, that would get him into it," Stone said. "On economic, defense and social issues, Buchanan is the antithesis of Powell."

Even Democratic operatives quake at that prospect.

"If you have a brokered convention, people will turn to a tried and true figure," said Democratic consultant Ted Van Dyk. "The bet is General Powell. If you drop it in his lap at the convention, he would be a sure winner against Clinton. He begins to look better and better to the Republicans all the time."

The most recent primaries in the two Dakotas and Arizona revealed major fault lines among Republican voters on three important issues: abortion, taxes and trade.

Exit polls indicated that, far from being the anti-abortion party, Republicans are split about evenly. In North Dakota, for instance, 43 percent of GOP voters favored a constitutional amendment to ban abortions, but 49 percent opposed the idea.

On taxes, most Republicans wanted a tax cut but they were not entirely captivated by the idea of a flat tax. That notion is championed most ardently by Forbes - who won the Arizona primary - but is also supported in varying degrees by Buchanan, Dole and Alexander.

In Arizona, exit polls showed a 2-to-1 margin for a flat tax, but in North Dakota the GOP voters favored the existing graduated income tax by 2-to-1.

CAMPAIGN SCENARIOS

What will it take for a clear front-runner to emerge from the Republican presidential campaign? Here are different scenarios that would benefit these candidates:

BOB DOLE: Republican voters, after flirting with more passionate candidates, rally behind Dole as the candidate most able to beat President Clinton in the fall. Lamar Alexander and Richard Lugar drop out of the race, and their supporters line up behind Dole. As the primary schedule becomes more hectic, Dole's superior organization helps put him over the top.

LAMAR ALEXANDER: Starting in Saturday's South Carolina primary and continuing in Tuesday's Georgia primary, Alexander shows strength as the alternative to Dole among mainstream Republicans. He appeals to Republicans who see him matching up well against President Clinton in the general election race.

STEVE FORBES: His flat-tax proposal draws more favorable attention. He continues running positive television ads, and voters looking for an outsider to clean up Washington find him less extreme than Pat Buchanan. In next Thursday's New York primary, he knocks off Dole, hastening Dole's exit from the race.

BUCHANAN: He forms a winning coalition by appealing to anti-abortion advocates, economically anxious voters, and people disgusted with politics as usual in Washington. He beats Dole in Saturday's South Carolina primary, keeping Alexander in the race. Alexander and Dole compete for the same votes, Forbes fades, and Buchanan takes advantage of the disarray to amass the most delegates.

NONE OF THE ABOVE: Three or four of the major contenders continue slugging it out for the next several weeks, none of them becoming a clear front-runner. With the party in turmoil, Republicans eventually turn to a new face, perhaps at the GOP convention in San Diego this summer. Rumors swirl around the possibility of having Colin Powell or Jack Kemp enter the race.

Knight-Ridder Tribune News Wire

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CAMPAIGN SCENARIOS (see text)