FOREIGN TRADE TO GROW BY 3.6%.

Byline: Evan Pondel Staff Writer

International trade in Southern California is expected to increase 3.6 percent to $220.2 billion in 2002 - a sign that a weakening U.S. dollar is luring exporters back to the Los Angeles Port, according to a study to be released today by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.

With the economies of the United States and other developed nations enjoying a modest recovery, LAEDC forecasts two-way trade values to approach levels last seen in 2000. However, trade values will still remain below the 2000 record of $230 billion.

``Yet with the weakening U.S. dollar, we should be able to push past the previous level in 2003,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the LAEDC. ``The longer-range outlook is quite positive right now.''

The impending expiration of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union contract could create a substantial obstacle for trade conditions, though. Kyser said the longshoremen may strike once the contract expires July 1, costing the industry between $1 billion and $2 billion a day. And yet even if the longshoremen do not strike, uneven business patterns in the trade industry could put the squeeze on profits, Kyser said.

``Right now, experts are saying there is a 50 percent probability that the longshoremen will strike,'' he said.

Barring a possible strike, the World Trade Center Association, an affiliate of the LAEDC, expects its activity to substantially bolster trade conditions throughout the year. Several key relationships between foreign and domestic companies have been facilitated by the association. Barry Sedlik, chief executive officer of the WTCA, said he is seeing an increase in ``TradeMatch Program'' activity among foreign companies looking for U.S. partners.

One such relationship was recently formed between Chatsworth-based Printing Technology Inc. and PTI Europe System D of France. The manufacturer of laser toner is now able to distribute its products in Europe as a result of the TradeMatch Program.

``It's strategically important for us because we've always had a tough time approaching the French market,'' said Peter De Salay, Printing Technology's president.

Aside from Europe, China has also become a powerful force that is improving the trade industry throughout California. LAEDC's forecast calls for China to surpass Japan in total two-way trade by the year's end. Kyser said this will be the first time that China has been able to overshadow Japan's trade activity in Southern California.