FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ...Byline: Glenn Whipp Film Critic HOW HAS ``Moulin Rouge Moulin Rouge (French for Red Mill or windmill) is a traditional cabaret, built in 1889 by Joseph Oller, who already owned the Paris Olympia. ,'' a marginally respected, moderately successful movie, become a prime contender for Oscar gold? Short answer: It's the money. 20th Century Fox has mounted an outlandishly expensive promotional campaign for Baz Luhrmann's outlandishly grandiose musical, and Luhrmann, along with star Nicole Kidman, has been hitting the high-profile chat circuit, telling anyone who will listen just how wonderful his movie is. We're not buying it, but you can bet that many voters in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are. What other movies and performances will be recognized when nominations are announced Feb. 12? Here's our cheat sheet. BEST PICTURE Sure things: ``A Beautiful Mind,'' ``The Fellowship of the Ring,'' ``In the Bedroom'' Likely: ``Black Hawk Black Hawk (born 1767, Sauk Sautenuk, Va.—died Oct. 3, 1838, village on the Des Moines River, Iowa, U.S.) Sauk Indian leader. Long antagonistic to whites, Black Hawk was driven into Iowa from Illinois in 1831. Down'' Maybe: ``Moulin moulin (m  lăN`): see pothole. Rouge'' Long shots: ``Amelie,'' ``Gosford Park,'' ``Shrek'' Should be nominated, but likely won't: We'll throw out the year's two best movies - ``Mulholland Drive'' and ``Memento'' - on the grounds that they're simply too smart and edgy for the academy. So how about a movie with all the things voters seem to look for - great performances, a prestigious director working at the top of his game, terrific production design, haunting themes of loss and recovery, not to mention a cute little kid. How about Steven Spielberg's ``A.I. Artificial Intelligence''? Oops - we're back to that smart and edgy thing again. Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: ``Moulin Rouge.'' Exhilarating (to the point of exhaustion), yes. Transcendent? Hardly. Analysis: Unless a backlash begins to develop over the broadly fictionalized portrait that's at the center of ``A Beautiful Mind'' (and it seems a little late in the game for that to happen), look for Ron Howard's movie to lead the nominations. Given the academy's slavish slav·ish adj. 1. Of or characteristic of a slave or slavery; servile: Her slavish devotion to her job ruled her life. 2. adoration of all things British, ``Gosford Park'' is likely the only long-shot capable of making the dance card. Predicted nominees: ``A Beautiful Mind,'' ``The Fellowship of the Ring,'' ``In the Bedroom,'' ``Black Hawk Down,'' ``Moulin Rouge'' BEST ACTOR Sure thing: Russell Crowe, ``A Beautiful Mind Likely: Will Smith, ``Ali''; Denzel Washington Denzel Hayes Washington, Jr. (born December 28, 1954) is a two-time Academy Award and Golden Globe Award-winning American actor and director. He has garnered much critical acclaim for his portrayals of several real-life figures, such as Steve Biko, Malcolm X, Rubin "Hurricane" , ``Training Day'' Maybe: Tom Wilkinson
Tom Wilkinson, OBE (born December 12th, 1948) is an Academy Award-nominated English actor. , ``In the Bedroom''; Gene Hackman, ``The Royal Tenenbaums,'' Billy Bob Thornton Robert George (Bob) Thornton (born July 10 1962, in Los Angeles, California) is a retired American professional basketball player in the NBA whose career lasted from 1985 to 1996. He was a 6'10" 225 forward. He holds career averages of 3.0 points and 2.5 rebounds in 283 total games. , ``The Man Who Wasn't There'' Long shots: Sean Penn, ``I Am Sam''; John Cameron Mitchell John Cameron Mitchell (born April 21, 1963 in El Paso, Texas) is an American writer, actor, and director. He is best known for his motion pictures Hedwig and the Angry Inch and Shortbus. Early life and career Mitchell was born in El Paso, Texas. , ``Hedwig and the Angry Inch''; Kevin Kline, ``Life as a House'' Should be nominated, but likely won't: Guy Pearce Guy Edward Pearce (born October 5, 1967) is an English-born Australian actor. Biography Early life Guy Pearce was born in Ely, England. His father was a New Zealand pilot who died when Pearce was 9, and his mother was an English schoolteacher. . It's impossible to imagine ``Memento'' without Pearce's finely layered performance. The film's final revelation may have initially come as a surprise, but Pearce was leading up to it all the time by hinting that Leonard may not really want to know the truth about his wife's death. It's too bad the movie opened in February, since voters typically share Pearce's character's short-term memory short-term memory n. Abbr. STM The phase of the memory process in which stimuli that have been recognized and registered are stored briefly. affliction. Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Washington. Sure, it was fun watching him play the bad guy for a change. But that doesn't mean his scenery chewing should be honored. Analysis: If Crowe could win an Oscar last year for ``Gladiator gladiator (Latin; swordsman) Professional combatant in ancient Rome who engaged in fights to the death as sport. Gladiators originally performed at Etruscan funerals, the intent being to give the dead man armed attendants in the next world. ,'' he certainly should be rewarded for the way he steered clear of the sensational trappings inherent in ``A Beautiful Mind.'' As for the rest of the field, look for Hackman and Wilkinson to nab the category's final two slots with either being a deserving choice for the top prize. Predicted nominees: Crowe, Smith, Washington, Wilkinson, Hackman BEST ACTRESS Sure thing: Sissy Spacek Mary Elizabeth "Sissy" Spacek (born December 25, 1949) is an Academy Award-winning American actress and singer. Biography Early life Spacek was born in Quitman, Texas to Edwin Arnold Spacek, Sr., a county agricultural agent, and Virginia Frances (Spilman). , ``In the Bedroom'' Likely: Nicole Kidman, ``Moulin Rouge''; Judi Dench Dame Judith Olivia Dench, CH, DBE, FRSA, (born 9 December 1934), usually known as Dame Judi Dench, is an Academy Award, Golden Globe, Tony, three-time BAFTA, and six-time Laurence Olivier Award-winning English actress. , ``Iris'' Maybe: Halle Berry Halle Maria Berry (IPA: /ˈhæliː ˈbɛriː/) (born August 14, 1966[1]) is an American actress. , ``Monster's Ball''; Naomi Watts, ``Mullholland Drive''; Renee Zellweger, ``Bridget Jones's Diary''; Nicole Kidman, ``The Others'' Long shots: Audrey Tautou, ``Amelie''; Tilda Swinton, ``The Deep End'' Should be nominated, but likely won't: Watts. To watch her wind her way through the twists and turns of David Lynch's movie is to witness a star being born. It's easily the year's best work. Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Excellent as it is, Dench's turn in ``Iris'' is more of a supporting role. Analysis: Kidman didn't snag a SAG, which likely means nothing. She should join Spacek (the eventual winner), Dench and Berry among the nominees, with voters giving the final slot to Zellweger (for her name as much as her performance) over Watts. Predicted nominees: Spacek, Kidman, Dench, Berry, Zellweger BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Sure thing: Jim Broadbent, ``Iris'' Likely: Ben Kingsley, ``Sexy Beast'' Maybe: Hayden Christensen, ``Life as a House''; Steve Buscemi, ``Ghost World''; Jon Voight, ``Ali''; Ian McKellen, ``The Fellowship of the Ring,'' Ethan Hawke, ``Training Day'' Long shots: Jamie Foxx, ``Ali''; Jude Law, ``A.I.''; Carl Reiner, ``Ocean's Eleven''; Ed Harris, ``A Beautiful Mind'' Should be nominated, but likely won't: Hugh Grant. Comic performances are always given short shrift, which is too bad, because Grant was superb as the charismatic cad in ``Bridget Jones's Diary.'' Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Christensen. His performance as Kevin Kline's rebellious, glue-sniffing son was the best thing about ``Life as a House.'' But that's kind of like saying that wiping your nose on a soft handkerchief is the best thing about hay fever hay fever, seasonal allergy causing inflammation of the mucous membranes of the nose and eyes. It is characterized by itching about the eyes and nose, sneezing, a profuse watery nasal discharge, and tearing of the eyes. . Analysis: A wide-open category. Broadbent and Kingsley are the early favorites, but it's anyone's game once the nominees are announced. With the exception of newcomer Christensen, look for the veterans to dominate. Predicted nominees: Broadbent, Kingsley, Christensen, Voight, McKellen BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Sure thing: Jennifer Connelly, ``A Beautiful Mind'' Likely: Helen Mirren, ``Gosford Park'' Maybe: Kate Winslet, ``Iris''; Maggie Smith, ``Gosford Park''; Marisa Tomei, ``In the Bedroom''; Cameron Diaz, ``Vanilla Sky''; Cate Blanchett, ``Bandits''; Dakota Fanning, ``I Am Sam'' Long shot: Anjelica Huston, ``The Royal Tenenbaums''; Judi Dench, ``The Shipping News'' Should be nominated, but likely won't: Kerry Armstrong. In a perfect world, the stunning work of the actresses in the ``Lantana'' ensemble (particularly Armstrong) would be recognized instead of the ``Gosford Park'' gang. But Lions Gate decided to spend the majority of its Oscar budget on ``Monster's Ball'' instead, leaving the mesmerizing mes·mer·ize tr.v. mes·mer·ized, mes·mer·iz·ing, mes·mer·iz·es 1. To spellbind; enthrall: "He could mesmerize an audience by the sheer force of his presence" ``Lantana'' to become the year's most overlooked masterwork mas·ter·work n. See masterpiece. . Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Connelly. She certainly made you feel sympathy for Alicia Nash, the beleaguered be·lea·guer tr.v. be·lea·guered, be·lea·guer·ing, be·lea·guers 1. To harass; beset: We are beleaguered by problems. 2. To surround with troops; besiege. wife of ``A Beautiful Mind.'' But for all the hosannas coming her way, you'd think it would be for something more than what is essentially a reactive role. Analysis: Connelly's name has already been inscribed in·scribe tr.v. in·scribed, in·scrib·ing, in·scribes 1. a. To write, print, carve, or engrave (words or letters) on or in a surface. b. To mark or engrave (a surface) with words or letters. on the Oscar. Mirren and Smith will nab nods, Tomei will gain a measure of redemption and Winslet the continued respect of her peers for her courageous work post-``Titanic.'' Predicted nominees: Connelly, Mirren, Smith, Tomei, Winslet BEST DIRECTOR Sure thing: Ron Howard, ``A Beautiful Mind'' Likely: Peter Jackson, ``The Fellowship of the Ring'' Maybe: Baz Luhrmann, ``Moulin Rouge''; Ridley Scott, ``Black Hawk Down''; Christopher Nolan, ``Memento''; David Lynch, ``Mullholland Drive''; Robert Altman, ``Gosford Park'' Long shots: Todd Field, ``In the Bedroom''; Steven Spielberg, ``A.I.'' Should be nominated, but likely won't: Jean-Pierre Jeunet. His ``Amelie'' is fresh, fun, frenetic - all the things that Luhrmann tries so hard (too hard) for in his flawed ``Moulin Rouge.'' Likely to be nominated, but probably shouldn't: Altman. Expert, assured work, but hardly ground-breaking. Lynch, Nolan, Spielberg and a host of others are more deserving nominees. Analysis: Howard will get his first Oscar nomination, but a win is no slam-dunk. In fact, this stands as the most unpredictable category - unpredictable, that is, until the DGA DGA Directors Guild of America (movie directors union) DGA Délégation Générale pour l'Armement (France) DGA Directeur-Grootaandeelhouder (Dutch: Managing Director and Major Shareholder) awards its trophy on March 9 - 15 days before the Oscars. Predicted nominees: Howard, Jackson, Luhrmann, Scott, Altman |
|
||||||||||||
Printer friendly
Cite/link
Email
Feedback
Reader Opinion