FOCUS: Latest data indicate end of stall in Japanese economy.

TOKYO, March 3 Kyodo

A slew of recent Japanese economic data indicate that the world's second-largest economy may be returning to a recovery stage after experiencing a moderate stall in the latter half of last year.

The release earlier this week of stronger-than-expected economic figures such as industrial output and spending for January prompted many economists to alter their views that Japan's economy will continue to shrink for the time being.

''The latest data suggest that the nation's economy has hit bottom earlier than forecast by many economists, who thought such a time would come between April and June,'' said Tatsuya Torikoshi, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd.

According to data released Monday, the nation's industrial production in January rose a seasonably adjusted 2.1 percent from the previous month, bringing the index to its highest level in nearly four years.

In addition, jobs data released Tuesday show that Japan's seasonally adjusted jobless rate stood at a six-year low of 4.5 percent in January, unchanged from December, indicating the employment situation is still improving.

The strong data contrast with Japan's gross domestic product data, which showed the economy shrinking 0.1 percent in real terms in the October-December period from the previous quarter. It was the third straight quarter of fall, raising worries that Japan has entered recession. The technical definition of recession is generally considered to be two straight quarters of quarter-on-quarter shrinkage.

Emerging optimism about the Japanese economy had considerable impact on the country's financial markets, prompting investors to buy stocks and sell bonds.

Following the release of upbeat data, the key Nikkei index rose for the sixth straight day Thursday, marking its longest winning streak since January 2001 and closing at 11,856.46, its highest level in eight months.

Also on Thursday, the yield on the key 10-year Japanese government bond ended at a four-month high above 1.5 percent, as investors stepped up selling of bonds on rising stocks and expectations for an economic recovery.

''The market has started factoring in an upcoming recovery in the Japanese economy,'' which is likely to take place later this year, said Koji Fukaya, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Recent data also suggest the nation's spending may have started to pick up despite concern that people may try to save rather than spend due to gradually increasing financial burdens such as increases in pension premiums.

Backing the view, data released Tuesday showed that spending by Japan's wage-earning households increased a real 2.6 percent in January for the first expansion in three months.

The spending data follow the release late last month of department store sales, which grew 0.9 percent in January from a year earlier for the first gain in 11 months.

But some economists retained a cautious view regarding a recovery in spending.

''It's notable that spending increased after brushing off such negative pressure as the increase in pension premiums,'' said Daiwa Institute's Torikoshi. ''But the spending figure was not good enough to provide a surprise.''

Torikoshi said it is too early to say that spending has really started to pick up just by looking at the data.

Despite the series of strong data, many economists are uncertain how fast the Japanese economy will recover, while some say the economy is likely to remain flat at least until the latter half of this year.

The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Fukaya said, ''Japan's economy is likely to stage a 'pot-shaped' recovery rather than V-shaped one, and we are still in the bottom of the pot.''