FLYERS WILL DRINK FROM STANLEY CUP.

Byline: Tim Trepany

It's going to be hard to tell who's going to be more disappointed: Wayne Gretkzy or the Detroit Red Wings?

The guess here is it will be Gretzky because the Red Wings' shame will be a shared responsibility.

While the Red Wings collectively will have to explain their failure to win the Stanley Cup, Gretzky will have to stand in front of the microphones and tape recorders alone and explain why his season lasted only a few more games than that of the lowly Kings, whom he forced to trade him in February.

Neither will get what they want out of the Stanley Cup playoffs, which begin today.

Gretzky wanted to be dealt to a contender. Instead he went to the St. Louis Blues because so few teams were willing or able to pay his salary. Gretzky and Brett Hull dreamed of being a feared combination like Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, but they were barely better than Dimitri Khristich and Vitali Yachmenev because Hull is probably the only player in the league not bright enough to figure out how to play with the game's greatest passer.

The result will be a first-round elimination at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs and, most likely, an insincere threat by Gretzky to retire, one he'll make to give his writer/buddies in Toronto a story and to improve his leverage in contract negotiations. Of course he won't follow through on it once he takes a look at all the zeros on the contract the Blues will offer him.

The Red Wings will stick around considerably longer than Gretzky and the Blues, but the only trophy they'll be polishing is the President's, given to the team with the most regular-season points.

They'll get to take a long, hard look at the Stanley Cup - when Eric Lindros and his Philadelphia Flyers teammates are celebrating with it.

The Red Wings have truly had an amazing season. They won an NHL-record 62 games, losing consecutive games just twice, gave up a league-low 2.2 goals per game while scoring a third-best four goals per game.

All the while, they've never taken their eyes off hockey's ultimate prize, a focus that rarely wavered because the embarrassment of being swept in the finals by the New Jersey Devils last season remains fresh.

``If anything we have more confidence in ourselves now than we did a year ago,'' Detroit captain Steve Yzerman said. ``Losing the final as we did was a humbling experience, but it helped us in that this year we all realize no matter how many goals we score, it all means nothing if we don't win the Cup.''

They'll have no problem breezing through the weak playoff competition in the mild west, but once they advance to the Stanley Cup finals, they'll be tested, and just as they did last season, they'll fail.

Performing last rites will be the Flyers, whose forwards are too physical for the smallish Red Wings (whose average of 6 feet, 190 pounds makes them the smallest playoff team) and whose defensemen are mobile enough to skate with Detroit's forwards.

Much has been made of the Flyers' rugged front line, but improved defensive play made them one of the NHL's hottest teams the final weeks of the regular season. They surrendered more than 30 shots only once in 26 games and closed out by winning 13 of 16 games.

It's a roll that will continue through the playoffs, all the way to the Stanley Cup.

This is how the playoffs will unfold, round-by-round:

Western Conference

First round - Detroit over Winnipeg; Colorado over Vancouver; Calgary over Chicago; Toronto over St. Louis.

Second round - Detroit over Toronto; Colorado over Calgary.

Conference final - Detroit over Colorado.

Eastern Conference

First round - Philadelphia over Tampa Bay; Pittsburgh over Washington; New York Rangers over Montreal; Boston over Florida.

Second round - Philadelphia over Boston; Pittsburgh over New York.

Conference final - Philadelphia over Pittsburgh.

Stanley Cup final - The Red Wings will do better than they did last season against the New Jersey Devils. By two games. Flyers in six.

Polling place: One man's ballot for the all-NHL team:

Center - Mario Lemieux, Pittsburgh; Sergei Fedorov, Detroit; Mark Messier, New York Rangers.

Right wing - Jaromir Jagr, Pittsburgh; Alexander Mogilny, Vancouver; Teemu Selanne, Mighty Ducks.

Left wing - Keith Tkachuk, Winnipeg; Paul Kariya, Mighty Ducks; John LeClair, Philadelphia.

Defensemen - Vladimir Konstantinov, Detroit; Ray Bourque, Boston; Chris Chelios, Chicago; Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit; Brian Leetch, New York Rangers; Sergei Zubov, Pittsburgh.

Goaltender - Jim Carey, Washington; Martin Brodeur, New Jersey; Chris Osgood, Detroit.

Young bucks: Choices for the all-rookie team: Forwards - Daniel Alfredsson, Ottawa; Eric Daze, Chicago; Vitali Yachmenev, Kings. Defensemen - Kyle McLaren, Boston; Mike Wilson, Buffalo. Goaltender - Corey Hirsch, Vancouver.

CAPTION(S):

2 Photos, Box

Photo: (1-2--color) Eric Lindross, right, and the r est of the Philadelphia Flyers, including goalie Garth Snow, below, will upset the Detroit Red Wings and win the Stanley Cup.

Associated Press

Box: NHL PLAYOFFS