FLU'S NEXT? Deadly outbreak reaches US.

Byline: STEPHEN WHITE

EXPERTS last night warned the world was teetering on the brink of a killer Swine Flu pandemic that may be worse than anything seen before.

Scientists fear the disease that has already claimed 86 lives in Mexico could sweep rapidly across the globe as medical staff struggle to contain the spread.

The flu has already reached America and Canada and there are suspected cases in New Zealand, France, Holland, Israel and Spain.

Emeritus Professor Nigel Dimmock said: "It's poised on a knife edge. It could get very nasty indeed. If it is a good spreader, it will spread around the world and we will all be in dead trouble.

"Fifty million died of Spanish flu in 1918. This has the potential to be bigger than that. I am worried.

So far the disease has killed two per cent of those infected. In the worst case scenario it could kill two per cent of the world's population." That figure would be around 120million. Prof Dimmock, of Warwick University, also said current vaccines would be useless against the new virulent strain.

As Britain braced itself for the disease to hit our shores, two people were last night in hospital at Airdrie, near Glasgow, with flu-like symptoms after returning from Mexico five days ago.

The pair were put into isolation when they contacted NHS Direct saying they felt unwell.

Around 20 others who were in contact with them have been checked for symptoms. But health officials insisted their

PANIC locals Mexico conditions are "not of concern". The Government's emergency Cobra committee met yesterday to discuss prevention strategies.

The Cabinet Office added: "There will be ongoing meetings while the threat of flu is there." America declared a public health emergency after 20 confirmed cases - including children - of the H1N1 virus in California, Texas,

Ohio, Kansas and New York. Eight students from a school in New York were infected on a trip to the Mexican resort of Cancun.

In Canada, four cases have been confirmed in Nova Scotia and two in British Columbia.

Three students in New Zealand are also feared to have it.

Health Secretary Alan Johnson urged Britons not to panic and said there is a pounds 500million stockpile of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu, which has proved effective in Mexico.

Declaring Britain was in a state of "constant alert", he also revealed scientists are working to develop an effective vaccine.

Mr Johnson added: "We have a whole range of measures in place.

We have a stockpile of the drugs and an agreement with a maker so as soon as scientists can find a vaccine, they can produce it." He said there would be more cases of travellers coming into the UK with flu-like symptoms and promised they would be examined "very quickly".

Mr Johnson added: "If you have symptoms, stay at home and call NHS Direct. These epidemics spread by going out and mixing."

He ruled out a travel ban to Mexico insisting it would do little to prevent the spread. But airport officials round the world are on the lookout for passengers with flu signs.

Panic yesterday swept through Mexico where the disease broke out. Churches, schools and public buildings were shut and practically the whole country was wearing masks to stop infection. At least 1,324 Mexicans are in hospital.

British tourists returning to Heathrow from holidays told how the nation is gripped by fear.

Saleem Choudhry, of London, said: "A lot of people there are not going to work because they are worried about spreading it."

Fellow Londoner Michile Cross, 37, added: "Everyone over there is wearing masks." Chief veterinary officer Nigel Gibbens insisted that although the H1N1 virus is the same strain as that found in pigs, pork is safe.

He added: "Swine flu cannot be transmitted by eating pork."

Voice of the Mirror: Page 10

Q&A

What is swine flu? A respiratory disease affecting pigs. It is rarely fatal in the animals.

Some of the cases have provided a version of the H1N1 strain of the influenza virus type A which has never been seen before.

Why have humans caught it? This genetic mutation of the disease is a mix of animal and human versions to which humans have little immunity. It is spread in water droplets when people cough or sneeze.

What are the symptoms? Similar to regular human seasonal flu, including fever, fatigue, lack of appetite, coughing and sore throat.

Some people with swine flu have also reported vomiting and diarrhoea.

Can I eat pork? Yes. It cannot be transmitted by eating the meat, although it is essential to cook it properly. A temperature of 70C would kill any virus.

How do I avoid getting it? If it spreads to the UK people would be expected to follow general infection control practices and good hygiene. This includes covering the nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, disposing of dirty tissues promptly and carefully, washing hands frequently with soap and cleaning surfaces which are regularly used.

What is the treatment? Two drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, have been used to successfully treat some of the cases and scientists are trying to develop a vaccine for the strain.

HISTORY OF PANDEMICS

A PANDEMIC is an epidemic of infectious disease that spreads across a continent or worldwide.

THE first recorded influenza pandemic was in 1510. It spread from Africa to Europe.

SPANISH flu, first recorded in Kansas in 1918, became a pandemic. It killed 50 million worldwide, 200,000 in the UK.

ASIAN flu killed 70,000 people in America in 1957-1958. Ten years later 34,000 died of Hong Kong flu.

H5N1 (Avian flu) has claimed 59 lives but because it spreads from birds to humans is not a "pandemic".

Mexico swine disease kills 86 as globe faces risk of biggest ever pandemic

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PANIC Masked locals pray in Mexico City FLU Spanish