FIRE HAZARD REMAINS HIGH HOPES FOR EL NINO RAIN DRY UP AS SOUTHLAND TURNS INTO TINDERBOX.Byline: DANA BARTHOLOMEW Staff Writer With rainfall just 25 percent of normal and El Nino unexpectedly weakening this month, weather forecasters say Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, may face its driest winter on record. Howling winds have pushed into the traditional wet season, wicking moisture from hillside brush to critically dry levels and raising fears of a disastrous fire season. Despite recent frigid temperatures, the National Weather Service has maintained its red-flag warnings, Canadian SuperScoopers have prolonged their stay, and Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850. area fire departments remain on heightened alert. ``El Nino was our last hope,'' said Bill Patzert, climatologist cli·ma·tol·o·gy n. The meteorological study of climates and their phenomena. cli  ma·to·log for the Pasadena-based Jet Propulsion Laboratory “JPL” redirects here. For other uses, see JPL (disambiguation).Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is a NASA research center located in the cities of Pasadena and La Cañada Flintridge, near Los Angeles, California, USA. . ``The deeper and drier we get into this, the weakening El Nino enhances the probability for one of the driest winters in history.'' It's a weather pattern that has confounded forecasters, frustrated water departments, worried firefighters and inflamed residents' allergies. For months, it's been the weather repeat of ``Groundhog Day Groundhog Day (February 2) In the U.S., the day that the groundhog predicts whether spring will be coming soon. If, on emerging from his hole, he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter; if not, spring is imminent. .'' Storms are predicted. Clouds move in. Clouds move out. Gutters remain mostly dry. And then the dry northeast winds -- offshore Santa Anas -- blow. For days. The arctic storm that arrived last Friday brought nary nar·y adj. Not one: "Frequently, measures of major import . . . glide through these chambers with nary a whisper of debate" George B. Merry. a drop of rain but ushered in 40 mph gusts that toppled trees, blew off doors and sent residents scurrying scur·ry intr.v. scur·ried, scur·ry·ing, scur·ries 1. To go with light running steps; scamper. 2. To flurry or swirl about. n. pl. scur·ries 1. The act of scurrying. for their heaviest coats. Since July, 1.31 inches of rain has fallen on downtown Los Angeles Downtown Los Angeles is the central business district of Los Angeles, California, located close to the geographic center of the metropolitan area. The sprawling, multi-centered megacity is such that its downtown core is often considered just another district like Hollywood or -- 25 percent of normal. By this time during the record dry weather season of 2001-02, which got a total 4.42 inches, rainfall was 29 percent of the year-to-date normal. The result: brush so dry that weather forecasters have extended their fire weather desk two months past the end of the normal fire season. Red-flag warnings prompted by critically dry brush were expected to continue late Tuesday with winds up to 60 mph and humidity levels of 10 to 20 percent. Not so windy The northeast winds are expected to ebb by todayas high pressure over the Great Basin loses its grip -- for now -- on the Southland. ``Every drop we've gotten recently has been offset by the powerful winds that follow,'' said Jamie Meier, an NWS NWS National Weather Service NWS Naval Weapons Station NWS New World Symphony NWS Nuclear Weapon State NWS Not Work Safe NWS National Watercolor Society NWS North Warning System NWS Nose Wheel Steering NWS National Waste Strategy (UK) meteorologist based in Oxnard. ``The fuel moisture hasn't been allowed to recover. ``We have not ended our fire season.'' Early last month, Santa Ana winds Santa Ana Winds may refer to: 1. Santa Ana wind, a local Southern California reference to Föhn winds, a meteorological phenomenon occurring as a layer of wind is forced over a mountain range -- drying the air -- which then passes over the crest and begins to move downslope -- clocked at 75 mph fanned the Shekell fire that gutted five homes and blackened black·en v. black·ened, black·en·ing, black·ens v.tr. 1. To make black. 2. To sully or defame: a scandal that blackened the mayor's name. 3. 13,700 acres near Moorpark. Days later, a brush fire threatened homes in Simi Valley. This was followed by last week's Malibu fire that, fueled by unseasonably hot Santa Ana winds, torched 21 acres and five beachfront beach·front n. A strip of land facing or running along a beach. adj. Situated along or having direct access to a beach: beachfront hotels; beachfront property. Noun 1. estates, including the home of actress Suzanne Somers. Chamise cha·mi·se also cha·mi·so n. pl. cha·mi·ses also cha·mi·sos An evergreen shrub (Adenostoma fasciculatum) in the rose family, native to California, having small needlelike leaves in fascicles and clusters of small brush moisture levels from Bouquet Canyon in Saugus to La Tuna Canyon in Tujunga are a smidgen past 60 percent -- or critical stage, according to the Los Angeles County Fire Department Not to be confused with Los Angeles Fire Department. The Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD), serves unincorporated parts of Los Angeles County, as well as 58 cities and towns that choose to have the county provide fire and EMS services, including the City of La . Moisture down As of Jan. 12, average brush levels for chamise, sage and ceanothus ce·a·no·thus n. Any of various shrubs or small trees of the genus Ceanothus, native mostly to western North America and having showy clusters of usually blue or whitish flowers. Also called redroot. hovered just past 70 percent across the county. Normal January fuel moisture is 120 percent. As a result, the fire season which normally ends in late November has been pushed back indefinitely, officials say. The National Weather Service will not close its Oxnard fire weather desk until there's a soaking rain of 4 to 5 inches. ``The fire moisture levels are near critical -- we've got about 62 percent near Malibu and similar levels throughout L.A. County,'' said county fire Assistant Chief Frank Vidales, in charge of the Forestry Division. ``The vegetation acts as if it were dead. ... We should be going the other way this time of year.'' Twice a day, fire officials throughout the region confer with weather forecasters regarding unsafe conditions, then allocate firefighters accordingly. Of special concern is high brush -- like the tinder from within the city-owned park that abutted the Malibu homes -- on public land. Dangerous brush exists on the edge of state and federal parks and other properties near homes, but each government agency is responsible to cut its own turf. The brush off And that's a problem, say county brush inspectors who say they have no leverage with which to make a bureaucracy to cut its weeds. ``We don't have that ability with government parcels,'' said Raymond Smith, chief of the Los Angeles County Weed Hazard and Pest Management Bureau. ``It's something we've been struggling with for years.'' With two SuperScoopers on the ground and more than 2,900 Los Angeles County firefighters at the ready, officials say they are braced for what may be a lengthy fire season. And more northeast winds generated by additional high-pressure systems expected over the Great Basin make conditions especially hazardous for Southern California. ``The sooner it rains, the sooner we can relax, as far as brush fires are concerned,'' said county Fire Inspector Ed Lozano, a spokesman for the agency. ``We'll not be caught unprepared. After the hottest summer on record, weather forecasters predicted that a moderate El Nino -- a significant warming of the equatorial Pacific east of South America that can alter global weather conditions -- would usher in a warm winter and a greater number of storms by spring. No more. Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climatic Prediction Center downgraded its assessment to a weaker El Nino, with sea temperatures already cooling. ``This El Nino has definitely been El No Show,'' Patzert said. ``We're done here -- we didn't get anything out of this last storm. ``And there's nothin' on the horizon.'' dana.bartholomew(at)dailynews.com (818) 713-3730 CAPTION(S): 2 photos, chart, map Photo: (1 -- color) L.A. Fire Inspector Paul Terris looks at an area that needs brush clearance near the 134 Freeway in Eagle Rock on Tuesday. (2 -- color) High winds and a weak El Nino have helped push the fire danger to high in the Angeles National Forest The Angeles National Forest (ANF) was established by executive order on December 20, 1892 as the San Gabriel Timberland Reserve. It covers over 2,600 km² (650,000 acres) and is located in the San Gabriel Mountains of Los Angeles County, just north of the metropolitan area of Los in Saugus on Tuesday. John McCoy/Staff Photographer Chart: Dangerously dry SOURCE: Los Angeles County Fire Department Gregg Miller/Staff Artist Map: Santa Anas dry out the Southland SOURCE: National Weather Service Gregg Miller/Staff Artist |
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