FIGHT HAS RING OF UNCERTAINTY TRINIDAD-VARGAS: EXPERTS WONDERING WHICH ONE WILL WIN.

Byline: Michael Rosenthal Staff Writer

LAS VEGAS - The experts don't know which way to go.

They want to say Felix Trinidad will beat Fernando Vargas when the undefeated junior middleweight champions meet here tonight because of Trinidad's experience, power and time-tested ability to exploit his opponents' weaknesses. They also want to say Vargas will win because he's a more versatile boxer and is as tough and ferocious as Roberto Duran once was.

So where does that leave the most-knowledgeable boxing observers? Scratching their heads.

``This is the first time in my life that I can't even guess who's going to win,'' said veteran trainer Emanuel Steward.

If either fighter has an edge among those who are willing to venture a prediction, it's Trinidad, the idol of Puerto Rico, who won his first world championship in 1993.

His record is 38-0, with 31 knockouts. However, it's the way he's compiled those numbers that has been most impressive.

His modus operandi: Recover from a slow start - he's been down a curious eight times - to overwhelm his overmatched opponent with steely resolve and two-fisted power that few in the sport have ever possessed.

Make a mistake and he'll destroy you.

Ask David Reid, the Olympic gold medalist who lowered his left hand, was nailed by a powerful right and fell apart thereafter when the two met in March. Reid took a gruesome beating but survived to lose a lopsided decision in one of Trinidad's most impressive performances.

``Felix Trinidad is the best fighter I ever saw - and I mean ever - at making adjustments during a fight,'' Steward said.

And, if all that isn't enough, he seems to be peaking at 27.

His biggest victories have come since last year. He outpointed three gold medalists from the U.S.: Pernell Whitaker, Oscar De La Hoya and Reid in three of his past five fights to establish himself as perhaps the top fighter pound-for-pound.

It would almost seem as if Vargas, at 22 and with only 20 fights behind him, is in over his head - almost.

Trinidad certainly has weaknesses, weaknesses many believe a mature- beyond-his-years Vargas can exploit:

--One, there's that proclivity to start slowly. Reid, after only 14 fights, put Trinidad down early but failed to pounce on his vulnerable prey and lost a chance to knock him out.

Consensus is Vargas, at the smell of blood, would move in for the kill and possibly take his quarry. He's far too intense - and smart - to hold back when such an opportunity presents itself.

He proved that to Raul Marquez and Ross Thompson in brutal knockouts.

--Two, De La Hoya proved Trinidad has difficulty against fighters who continually move. Vargas isn't as quick as De La Hoya or as reluctant to exchange punches but is a very smart fighter who probably won't stand in one place too long.

--And, three, while no one can be certain, many aren't convinced Vargas will crumble as Reid did when and if he gets into trouble.

Vargas (20-0, 18 KOs) appears to have an unusual ability to absorb punches; he's never been seriously hurt on the canvas. And he seems to have a fighting spirit that couldn't possibly be shattered with a single hard punch or another unpredictable crisis.

In his most difficult fight, against tough left-hander Winky Wright last year, Vargas rallied in the final three rounds of a grueling 12-rounder to pull out a close decision.

``If they think I'm a David Reid, they're going to be surprised,'' Vargas said.

The matchup also perpetuates one of boxing's hottest rivalries: Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. Vargas, of Oxnard, is Mexican-American but Mexicans seem to identify with his courageous fighting style and devotion to his roots.

And, perhaps most significant, the stakes are extremely high.

If Trinidad wins, he will solidify his place among the world's elite fighters and position himself to make ungodly sums against Roy Jones Jr. and possibly De La Hoya again in the near future.

If Vargas wins, he will have climbed to the top of the boxing world - with Shane Mosley and Lennox Lewis - at a remarkably tender age. Assuming pending charges that he and four others beat up a Santa Barbara man last summer doesn't trip him up, the possibilities are boundless.

``You don't get recognized as the pound-for-pound best by fighting chumps, and Tito Trinidad ain't no chump,'' Vargas said. ``He's the best in the world. That's why I wanted him. . . . This won't be just another win.

``When I win this one, this is going to be the fight that makes people realize that Fernando Vargas is the best pound-for-pound in the world.''

--Notes: Both fighters weighed in at the 154-pound weight limit. Trinidad initially was a half-pound overweight, but he returned 20 minutes later and made the weight limit.

VARGAS vs. TRINIDAD

When: Telecast will begin at 6 p.m. on Saturday. The Trinidad-Vargas fight will start about 9 p.m.

Where: Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas

TV: TVKO (pay-per-view)

Who: Felix Trinidad, Puerto Rico, vs. Fernando Vargas, Oxnard.

Rounds: 12

At stake: Trinidad's WBA and Vargas' IBF junior middleweight titles

Undercard: Ricardo Lopez (Mexico) vs. Ratanapol Vorapin (Thailand), 12 rounds, for Lopez's IBF junior flyweight title. William Joppy (Washington, D.C.) vs. Jonathan Reid (Nashville, Tenn.), 12, for Joppy's WBA middleweight title.

VARGAS vs. TRINIDAD

An analysis of the Fernando Vargas-Felix Trinidad bout tonight in Las Vegas.

BOXING ABILITY

Trinidad knows how to fight one way: Charge forward until the opponent is no longer standing. However, he's a fine boxer: His ability to exploit his opponents' weaknesses is uncanny. Vargas is a more complete fighter. He can box, punch, move - whatever it is he must do to win.

EDGE: Vargas

PUNCHING POWER

Vargas probably is stronger than Trinidad, who is fighting at 154 pounds for only the third time. However, strength doesn't always translate to punching power. Trinidad can and has taken opponents out with one swift blow. Vargas normally needs time to wear opponents down.

EDGE: Trinidad

CHIN

This is closer than some might think. Yes, Trinidad has been down eight times in his career. However, he's gotten up every time to beat his opponent. Vargas has rarely been stunned by a punch and has never been down.

EDGE: Vargas

DEFENSE

Both fighters are fearless and aggressive, which means taking punches is inevitable. At the same time, their defensive skills shouldn't be dismissed. They do enough to avoid taking big punches.

EDGE: Trinidad

SPEED

Their hand speed is roughly equal - very good, but not great. However, Vargas, while certainly not a Sugar Ray Leonard, is much quicker afoot. Trinidad's inability to cut off the ring against Oscar De La Hoya seemed to expose his limited foot speed.

EDGE: Vargas

EXPERIENCE

No-brainer here. Trinidad, 27, won his first title in 1993 - when Vargas, now 22, was 15 - and has an 18-6 edge in number of world-championship fights. Trinidad has fought 38 times, Vargas 20.

EDGE: Trinidad

TRAINERS

It's obvious that both fighters are well-schooled, which reflects well upon trainers Eduardo Garcia (Vargas) and Felix Trinidad Sr. (Trinidad).

EDGE: Even

OVERALL

We know what happens when Trinidad gets into trouble: He recovers quickly and takes his opponents apart. He's done it so many times. Vargas? Experts sense that nothing could rattle this angry, but calculating young fighter. However, they're not certain. How he responds when Trinidad lands a big punch could determine the outcome.

EDGE: Even

CAPTION(S):

2 photos, 2 boxes

Photo:

(1 -- color) Fernando Vargas flexes his muscles after weighing in at 154 pounds Friday in Las Vegas, where he will fight Felix Trinidad today.

Laura Rauch/Associated Press

(2 -- color) VARGAS

Box: (1 -- 2) Vargas vs. Trinidad (see text)