FAMILY FILMS TO THE RESCUE? HOLLYWOOD HOPING THAT 'RUGRATS,' 'GRINCH' CAN BRING LIFE TO BOX OFFICE.

Byline: Jesse Hiestand Staff Writer

Hollywood is banking on the Grinch to save more than Christmas this year.

The mean green one and an avalanche of family and sub-R-rated films can rescue the slumping box office from a fairly forgettable year in films, industry observers say.

Heading into the crucial holiday season, domestic film grosses are dead even with last year at $6.42 billion - after four consecutive years of growing at least 7 percent to top out at $7.5 billion in 1999.

There's general optimism that this year's final tally will exceed that on the strength of family fare like ``102 Dalmatians,'' ``Rugrats in Paris - The Movie'' and, despite mixed reviews, ``Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas,'' the latter two of which opened this weekend.

``All year, families were looking for movies to take the kids to, and here we have a big spurt of them coming out in the next few weeks,'' said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracking from Exhibitor Relations Co. in Los Angeles. ``I see us winding up this very bumpy year with a revenue record.''

Certainly there's films for everyone being released in coming weeks, from Disney's animated ``The Emperor's New Groove'' to several sex-oriented flicks and not one but two vampire movies, including ``Wes Craven's Dracula 2000.''

But there are several films that, while not aimed directly at kids, may play a big role in jumpstarting the box office by shunning R-ratings for PG-13 or less to draw the largest possible audience. Those include Arnold Schwarzenegger's ``The 6th Day,'' ``Unbreakable,'' the follow-up to last year's breakout ``The Sixth Sense'' and perhaps ``The Family Man,'' where Nicholas Cage plays a greedy stock broker turned grateful parent.

``I think we're going to come to the conclusion that great movies are great for everyone,'' said writer-producer Tom Lynch, who is making a family film for the Showtime cable channel. ``The family market is huge - `tweens' (kids ages 9 to 14) have $50 million of disposable income to spend. They also influence $250 million in spending in the family.''

If these family and general audience films save the day, it comes in a year in which federal regulators slammed Hollywood for chasing revenue by marketing violent and explicit entertainment to children as young as 9.

The industry can't blame the government for the run of weak summer movies that knocked the momentum out of strong early year gains and culminated in an 11-week losing streak where the box office lagged last year's week-to-week totals by up to 30 percent.

``In May and June the box office just collapsed,'' said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., predicting that the box office will grow by 3.5 percent. ``Regardless it's going to go down as somewhat of a disappointment. You had a lot of films come out and not perform anywhere where people thought they would.''

Not that the year didn't start out well, heading into the summer 12 percent ahead of 1999 on strong showings by ``Erin Brockovich,'' ``Scream 3,'' ``Next Friday,'' and others, Dergarabedian said.

``Gladiator'' charged out of the gates and ``Mission: Impossible 2,'' the year's top grosser, debuted with a $57 million Memorial Day weekend box office.

But competing against last summer was a tough proposition from the outset, with films like ``Me, Myself & Irene,'' ``Shaft'' and ``Chicken Run'' competing against 1999 summer blockbusters like ``Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace,'' ``The Sixth Sense'' and others.

Industry analyst Art Rockwell suggested that the studios did not want to waste any good movies during this summer's Sydney Olympics, which itself proved to be a ratings downer.

``There was nothing of any significance, commercially speaking, that the studios wanted to risk by putting it out in that period, so it was dead,'' said Rockwell of Rockwell Capital Management in Burbank.

Other analysts disagree, saying there simply wasn't much the public wanted to see.

``There was just not the moviegoer excitement to surpass last year,'' Dergarabedian said.

Coming out of summer, the box office was behind last year with an abysmal September where promising films like ``Almost Famous'' failed to catch fire, he said.

It took ``Remember the Titans'' in late September to dash the doldrums. Another general interest film ``Meet the Parents'' was No. 1 two weeks later when the box office finally broke its 11-week losing streak.

``We've been on a roll since then,'' Dergarabedian said, culminating with the $40 million opening weekend for ``Charlie's Angels'' earlier this month.

``By the end of the year, given a very strong Thanksgiving season and right through Christmas, this year is still going to be at least as good or a little better than last year,'' said Rockwell. ``The next three weeks are going to be fantastic.''

CAPTION(S):

4 photos

Photo: (1 -- color) ``RUGRATS IN PARIS''

Nickelodeon's sequel to the $100 million original includes Susan Sarandon as the voice of the villain.

(2 -- color) ``THE GRINCH''

Despite mixed reviews, ``The Grinch,'' starring Jim Carrey, is expected to be a big draw for all ages.

(3 -- color) ``102 DALMATIANS''

If this sequel is as popular as its live-action predecessor, ``102 Dalmatians'' could score at the box office.

(4 -- color) ``THE EMPEROR'S NEW GROOVE''

Disney's holiday offering, opening Dec. 15, aims squarely at young moviegoers.