FACTORS COMBINE IN L.A. CRIME DECLINE; UPTURN IN ECONOMY, POLICING, `3-STRIKES' CITED IN LAPD STUDY.

Byline: Patrick McGreevy Daily News Staff Writer

In its first comprehensive study attempting to explain this decade's steady decrease in violent crime, the Los Angeles Police Department has concluded that the improving economy, the tough ``three strikes your out'' sentencing law and the expansion of the police force all appear to be factors.

Other factors believed responsible include changing demographics, the 1994 Northridge Earthquake and a 1994 LAPD decision to reclassify homicides and aggravated assaults as repressible crimes so police officers are held accountable for decreasing their rates, the study said.

``It is likely that these factors contributed, at least in part, to the decline in violent crime,'' concluded the study by the LAPD's Management Services Division, which added that all the factors ``perhaps . . . have combined in just the right way to have a positive effect on crime.''

The LAPD conducted the study to provide a ``more realistic'' assessment of violent crime from 1990 through 1997 and how police strategies and other factors may have affected the crime rate, officials said Friday.

``It's important for people to know that L.A. is a safe city,'' said Cmdr. Dave Kalish, a department spokesman.

Noting that violent crime has declined nationwide during this decade, the study found that there has been a 24.7 percent decline in homicides and aggravated assaults in Los Angeles during the last seven years.

Homicides, taken alone, have dropped 45 percent since 1993, to fewer than 600 in 1997 - the lowest level of any year in this decade in Los Angeles.

Rapes have also declined from more than 2,000 in 1990 to fewer than 1,300 last year, the study said, although they are the only violent crime to increase slightly this year.

Contributing factors

The improving economy is seen as one factor in the reduction of violent crime during the first seven years of the decade, the study said, adding ``as the economy improves or goes up, the crime rate goes down.''

LAPD officials note that the county's unemployment rate last year was 2.7 percent below the 1994 rate.

The aging of the baby boomer generation was also cited as a possible factor, according to the study, which noted: ``The aging of the population results in decreasing numbers of people in the age groups most likely to commit crimes.''

The study also said state voters' approval of the ``three strikes'' sentencing law in 1994 appears to be having an impact.

``By seeing others go to prison, some they know and some through the media, criminals may start to believe the law will be taken seriously and alter their own criminal behaviors,'' the study said. ``Equally important, the core group of hardened criminals, that small portion of the community responsible for a large percentage of crime, is removed from the community through these types of laws.''

Police Commissioner Dean Hansell said he agrees with much of the report.

``I think having more police on the street is definitely a plus. I would put it as a major factor,'' Hansell said. ``And an improved economy certainly helps. If more people have jobs there are fewer people hanging around on the street to get into trouble.''

However, Hansell said it's premature to determine whether the 4-year-old ``three strikes'' law is having an impact on crime, because three-time felons would be in prison regardless of the new law.

``That one hasn't been around long enough to know,'' Hansell said.

Councilman Hal Bernson said the new law, which provides for mandatory life sentences on the third felony, is bound to impact criminal activity.

``I think punishment is a deterrent,'' Bernson said.

The study also notes that the police force increased by 1,200 officers from 1990 to 1997, a 15 percent expansion, and that community policing has made the officers more effective in solving problems before crimes occur.

``Obviously, it helps any time there is a greater police presence,'' Bernson agreed.

In addition, the 1994 Northridge Earthquake may have contributed to the large drop in crime that year as residents were distracted by recovery efforts and large numbers of emergency workers were deployed.

``It brought people together,'' said Bernson, whose Northwest Valley district was hard-hit by the quake. ``People who never knew their neighbors were getting together.''

Repressible crime

The drop in homicides and aggravated assaults may partly be due to a decision in 1994 to classify those crimes as repressible, which means police officers in the field began to be held accountable for the number of killings and attacks.

Before 1994, homicides and assaults were believed to mostly occur in people's homes and businesses, out of sight of patrol officers and therefore not something they could be blamed for when they increase in number.

``Homicides have shifted from the bedrooms to the streets,'' said Capt. Dan Koenig, whose office conducted the study, which found that the percentage of homicides that occurred in public places went from 70 percent in 1986 to 82 percent in 1992.

Reclassifying homicides and aggravated assaults as repressible crimes ``held officers and their command staff accountable for reducing the incidence of those crimes,'' the study said.

Even though violent crime is down, the study noted that polls have shown that public fear of crime remains high.

``People may be safer, but I don't think people generally feel safer today,'' Bernson said.

For that, the study says the media may be to blame.

``Television and print media, the most widely used sources of information on crime, bombard us with disproportionate amounts of violent and sensational crimes,'' the study said.

It added, ``Unfortunately, a sprawling metropolis such as Los Angeles can make one feel as though he or she is being surrounded by very violent crimes when in fact the crimes may be occurring over 50 miles away, and in no discernible pattern.''