Experts predict slow economic growth in 1991.

The world economy is expected to grow slowly in 1991, with the level of per capita output falling for the second year in a row, according to economic forecasting experts from 40 countries and regional centres attending a two-day meeting (6-8 March, New York). The Expert Group on Short- and Medium-Term Projections of the World Economy -- known as "Project LINK" -- said the temporary surge in oil prices during the Gulf crisis, the disruption of trade, and curtailment of worker remittances reinforced recessionary tendencies in many parts of an already weakening world economy.

The experts combined their analysis of recent economic developments in their own countries with UN forecasts, using the econometric world model of Project LINK, in association with economists from the Universities of Pennsylvania and Toronto.

The Group, chaired by Nobel Laureate Professor Lawrence Klein, placed the average world economic growth at slightly more than 1 per cent in 1991, about the same as in 1990. The continued slowdown would be reflected in reduced world trade growth and in lower or unchanged non-oil commodity prices, which would further curtail developing countries' revenues, it felt.

The experts predicted an improvement in world economic output in 1992 and a continued growth of about 3 per cent per annum through 1995. They warned that in most developing countries, that rate would be only slightly higher than likely population growth.