Expert predicts: party nominees for '08: speaking at NAA's Capitol Conference, renowned political pundit Charlie Cook cites McCain as GOP front-runner, and calls Clinton-Obama race for Democrats a toss-up.

Making big, bold predictions is nothing new in the world of politics, and doing so is easy when Election Day is just 18 months away. But renowned political analyst Charlie Cook makes a living doing it and, as was the case with the last national election, he was able to beat all forecasters, calling for a Democrat Party onslaught about a year before the polls opened. Just outside of Capitol Hill, addressing NAA membership attending the annual Capitol Conference, Cook spoke confidently when appraising the 2008 race for the White House.

He could. He has top-quality polling information to back it up.

He called for a race between Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and either Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) or Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).

Cook, who appears regularly on national television political roundtable discussions and writes a regular column for the National Journal, gave McCain a slight edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the race for the GOP nomination.

Cook was less optimistic about the chances of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani to gain the GOP nod. Giuliani's lead was more than 20 points according to most polls on March 11, the date Cook spoke to nearly 300 attendees at Capitol Conference. Cook said Giuliani's chances of becoming the next U.S. president would improve if he ran as an independent.

"I'll win the Tour de France before the Republicans nominate someone like Rudy Giuliani," Cook said.

Cook said Clinton's chief opponent in the race at this stage, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), was "someone we all should keep an eye on." Cook said Obama's charisma, fund-raising successes and Washington-outsider persona all make him a serious candidate, standing vitally even against Clinton.

Iraq Factor

Cook also said the situation in Iraq would be a more tell-tale sign on which way the country will go in terms of which party occupies the White House.

"If I could have any one piece of information right now to formulate my prediction, it would be knowing how things were going in the Iraq war come election day," Cook said.

Cook said that unless in the minds of the voters progress wasn't or hadn't been made in Iraq by next year, the Democrat Party would win the White House, no matter whom it nominates.

Cook's presentation was dominated by key points, mostly made with a favorable dose of humor.

"It was interesting to get that kind of insight from a political insider," said NAA Treasurer Marc Rosenwasser, Vice President, Meadow Wood Properties, Tampa, Fla. "And he gave it in such an entertaining, engaging and humorous manner."

More on the GOP

Cook said polls show that McCain's age is the country's biggest apprehension. McCain would enter office at age 72, making him the oldest to do so, including Ronald Reagan.

Cook also said McCain's image of being a "maverick" played well during McCain's presidential run in 2004, but that its value has worn off. And, Cook said, "mavericks" generally don't play well with the GOP.

Cook said current polls favor Guiliani because the public still views Guiliani as a courageous public figure, mostly because of his compassionate performance immediately following September 11, when he helped to calm a nation. Cook said when voters, especially die-hard Republicans, learn more about Giuliani's favorable opinions on topics such as abortion, gun control and civil unions, his poll numbers "will melt like an ice cream cone in August."

Cook described Romney as one of the smartest politicians he has seen. He added that Romney's stance is more GOP-esque, as he favors lower taxes and he appears to side with Republicans on social issues. Romney's Mormon faith, Cook said, could become a concern in the minds of voters, but right now, it is "certainly not a deal-breaker."

More importantly, according to Cook, is Romney's perceived record of flip-flopping on key issues. "His stance of social issues has undergone a metamorphosis," Cook said. "Not that a politician doesn't have the right to change his mind, but Romney might come across as being too opportunistic in his opinions."

Cook said former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who took the country by storm in the early 1990s, could enter the race. Cook, though, predicted Gingrich wouldn't run unless he sensed an opportunity, such as the GOP not fully supporting McCain or Romney. "Newt's got too much Samsonite in his closet," Cook said of the controversial former Georgia representative. "The country probably doesn't want to go through all that this early in the race."

More on Democrats

Cook praised Clinton's campaign, calling it an efficient operation, full of the best, proven campaign advisors and strategists available. He said her enormous financial advantage, squeaky-clean quality control when delivering a message and her incredible determination are also key assets.

Conversely, Obama, 45, is unproven in political campaigning, having never won what would be considered by most a challenging race. For example, he lost one state election before ultimately gaining his U.S. Senate seat after the front-runners from each party self-destructed.

"If this were a heavyweight fight, you've got the veteran Clinton, a strong, savvy, experienced fighter and Obama, a long shot who is young and totally untested," Cook said. "In some ways, Clinton is sort of the Mike Tyson. She'd do anything to win--probably even biting off the ear of her opponent."

Cook several times pointed out how capable Obama is of spoiling Clinton's life-long ambition of becoming president. "You've got 46 to 48 percent of the country saying they wouldn't vote for Hillary, even if she ran unopposed," Cook said.

Cook said he is astonished at the crowd size at Obama's campaign stops. "We've never seen anything like this," Cook said.

Cook also cited recent poll numbers, which showed that when asked if under no circumstances would they vote for a black, woman, homosexual, Mormon, person over age 70 or someone who had been married three times, the results favored a black candidate. That survey revealed only 4 percent would be "very uncomfortable" with a black candidate. For other categories, voters said they would be very uncomfortable with a woman president (8 percent); Mormon (26); older than age 70 (29) and homosexual (34).

Cook said if the Democrat Party's voters' preference wears thin on Clinton and Obama, that 2004 Vice-President nominee John Edwards, currently running in third-place in the polls, could be there to pick up the pieces. Cook joked about Edwards' ability to maintain a positive image in the minds of voters despite his setback with Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) in the 2004 election.

"It's like there was a big car wreck and the respondents gathered around the mangled automobile," Cook said. "The rescue team finds that the driver, Kerry, when being pulled from the car, has severed limbs and is barely breathing, while Edwards simply opens his passenger door, steps out, and doesn't even have to go to the dry cleaners."

Cook said both Kerry and 2000 Democrat nominee Al Gore's negative ratings are off the charts and neither will enter the race.

Paul R. Bergeron III is NAA's Director of Communications. He can be reached at 703/797-0606 or [e-mail].