Expectations rise, but confidence falls.September September: see month. Results The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence Index A measure of consumer views regarding the current economic situation and consumer expectations for the future. Information for the index is compiled and released on the last Tuesday of each month by the Conference Board, an , which had fallen in the last three months, declined again in September. The Index now stands at 93.3 (1985=100), down from 94.5 in August. The Present Situation Index declined to 88.5 from 93.1, while the Expectations Index rose to 96.5 from 95.5. The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO NFO Info File (file type extension) NFO New Fund Offer NFO National Farmers Organization NFO Naval Flight Officer (US Navy) NFO National Family Opinion WorldGroup, a member of The Interpublic Group of Companies This article or section needs sources or references that appear in reliable, third-party publications. Alone, primary sources and sources affiliated with the subject of this article are not sufficient for an accurate encyclopedia article. (NYSE NYSE See: New York Stock Exchange : IPG IPG Implantable pulse generator, see there ). Consumers' assessment of the present situation was mixed. Those rating business conditions as "good" increased from 16.7 percent to 18.2 percent. However, those rating conditions as "bad" also increased, from 21.8 percent to 23.3 percent. Consumers reporting jobs were plentiful plen·ti·ful adj. 1. Existing in great quantity or ample supply. 2. Providing or producing an abundance: a plentiful harvest. declined to 15.9 percent. down from 17.4 percent. Those claiming jobs are hard to get climbed to 25.5 percent. up from 23.8 percent last month. Consumers were more optimistic op·ti·mist n. 1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome. 2. A believer in philosophical optimism. op about the short-term Short-term Any investments with a maturity of one year or less. short-term 1. Of or relating to a gain or loss on the value of an asset that has been held less than a specified period of time. outlook. Fewer respondents In the context of marketing research, a representative sample drawn from a larger population of people from whom information is collected and used to develop or confirm marketing strategy. expect an improvement in business conditions in the next six months -- 21.5 percent in September, down from 22.2 percent in August. However, fewer consumers expect conditions will worsen wors·en tr. & intr.v. wors·ened, wors·en·ing, wors·ens To make or become worse. worsen Verb to make or become worse worsening adjn -- 9.6 percent in September, down slightly from 10 percent in August. The employment outlook was more favorable fa·vor·a·ble adj. 1. Advantageous; helpful: favorable winds. 2. Encouraging; propitious: a favorable diagnosis. 3. in September. Those anticipating more jobs to become available increased from 17.4 percent to 17.7 percent As for income prospects, 20.3 percent of consumers anticipate an increase, down from 22.1 percent in August. The lack of a turnaround Turnaround A situation where a company that has had poor performance for an extended period of time experiences a positive reversal. Notes: A speculator may profit from a turnaround if he or she accurately anticipates the improvement of a poorly performing company. in labor market labor market A place where labor is exchanged for wages; an LM is defined by geography, education and technical expertise, occupation, licensure or certification requirements, and job experience conditions continues to play a role in the decline of the Consumer Confidence Index. While consumers' assessment of current economic conditions continues to weaken, their expectations for the short-term continue to improve. Historically, this generally occurs on the road to recovery, even a jobless recovery A jobless recovery or jobless growth is a phrase used by economists to describe the recovery from a recession which does not produce strong growth in employment. The phrase originated in the early 1990s in the United States, to describe the economic recovery at the end of . Thus, consumer spending Consumer demand or consumption is also known as personal consumption expenditure. It is the largest part of aggregate demand or effective demand at the macroeconomic level. should not change dramatically, and overall growth prospects remain positive. [GRAPH graph, figure that shows relationships between quantities. The graph of a function y=f (x) is the set of points with coordinates [x, f (x)] in the xy-plane, when x and y are numbers. OMITTED] [GRAPH OMITTED]
Consumer Confidence 93.3 [down]-1.2
Present Situation 88.5 [down]-4.6
Expectations 96.5 [up]+1.0
Consumer Confidence and Buying Plans
Based on surveys conducted by NFO Research, Inc.
Percentage of households = 100%
Business
Employment
Income
2001 2002
All series seasonally adjusted Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Composite Series: Index
Numbers, 1985 = 100
Consumer Confidence Index 97.0 85.3 84.9 94.6 97.8 95.0
Present Situation 125.4 107.2 96.2 97.8 98.1 96.4
Expectatons 78.1 70.7 77.3 92.4 97.6 94.0
Appraisal of Present
Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 22.3 18.6 16.8 17.3 18.2 17.6
Bad 18.3 20.7 20.7 21.7 22.4 22.8
Normal 59.4 60.7 62.5 61.0 59.4 59.6
Employment
Jobs plentiful 27.1 20.9 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.2
Jobs not so plentiful 54.1 58.5 59.8 60.2 59.1 59.2
Jobs hard to get 18.8 20.6 22.7 21.9 22.5 22.6
Expectations for Six
Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 15.7 17.6 17.7 22.2 24.9 22.3
Worse 15.8 20.3 16.9 11.6 9.8 11.1
Same 68.5 62.1 65.4 66.2 65.3 66.6
Employment
More jobs 12.9 13.9 14.4 16.5 18.9 18.3
Fewer jobs 22.5 29.0 26.3 19.3 18.0 19.5
Same 64.6 57.1 59.3 64.2 63.1 62.2
Income
Increase 21.1 18.0 22.0 21.5 20.1 20.5
Decrease 9.3 10.9 10.3 9.1 9.6 9.2
Same 69.6 71.1 67.7 69.4 70.3 70.3
Plans to Buy Within
Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 7.3 8.8 7.1 8.0 7.6 8.1
New 2.8 4.5 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.2
Used 2.8 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
Uncertain 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.5
Home
Yes 3.6 3.5 3.3 4.1 4.0 3.9
New 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1
Lived in 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.2 1.6 1.8
Uncertain 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.0
Major appliances
Total plans 29.4 26.8 29.4 26.9 27.7 28.5
Refrigerator 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.2 5.2 4.8
Washing machine 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.0 4.3
TV Set 7.5 6.8 7.7 6.7 7.4 6.8
Vacuum Cleaner 5.7 3.9 5.5 5.3 4.5 5.0
Range 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.7
Clothes dryer 2.8 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.8 3.3
Air conditioner 2.0 1.4 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.6
Carpet 5.3 5.7 4.5 5.3 6.2 4.5
Vacation Intended Within
Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended Destination 48.0 43.6 44.7
U.S. 40.7 35.6 38.1
Foreign country 8.6 8.6 8.7
Means of Travel
Automobile 26.0 24.0 25.8
Airplane 18.4 16.4 17.5
Other 4.5 4.2 4.0
2002
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July
Composite Series: Index
Numbers, 1985 = 100
Consumer Confidence Index 110.7 108.5 110.3 106.3 97.4
Present Situation 111.5 106.8 111.2 104.9 99.4
Expectatons 110.2 109.6 109.7 107.2 96.1
Appraisal of Present
Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 21.0 19.7 21.2 19.9 20.2
Bad 18.3 19.4 18.5 19.5 22.1
Normal 60.7 60.9 60.3 60.6 57.7
Employment
Jobs plentiful 20.6 20.9 21.2 20.1 18.8
Jobs not so plentiful 58.3 56.4 57.0 56.7 57.3
Jobs hard to get 21.1 22.7 21.8 23.2 23.9
Expectations for Six
Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 25.4 26.0 24.9 23.7 20.8
Worse 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 9.2
Same 68.4 67.6 68.3 69.2 70.0
Employment
More jobs 20.7 22.2 21.2 20.4 17.3
Fewer jobs 13.5 14.8 13.6 14.3 17.0
Same 65.8 63.0 65.2 65.3 65.7
Income
Increase 22.7 21.1 21.1 20.9 20.1
Decrease 8.6 8.1 7.8 8.0 9.6
Same 68.7 70.8 71.1 71.1 70.3
Plans to Buy Within
Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 7.0 7.8 7.9 7.8 8.3
New 2.6 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.3
Used 3.2 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.8
Uncertain 1.2 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.2
Home
Yes 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.8
New 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.9
Lived in 1.3 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.9
Uncertain 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0
Major appliances
Total plans 29.9 31.3 27.6 29.6 28.0
Refrigerator 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 3.7
Washing machine 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.4
TV Set 6.3 7.2 6.6 7.7 7.4
Vacuum Cleaner 5.4 5.6 4.7 4.8 4.3
Range 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3
Clothes dryer 4.1 3.6 3.0 3.8 3.0
Air conditioner 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.9
Carpet 6.9 6.4 5.7 5.8 5.5
Vacation Intended Within
Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended Destination 44.7 44.5
U.S. 38.7 38.7
Foreign country 7.8 7.3
Means of Travel
Automobile 25.6 24.9
Airplane 18.3 19.6
Other 3.7 3.4
2002
All series seasonally adjusted Aug.(r) Sept.(p)
Composite Series: Index
Numbers, 1985 = 100
Consumer Confidence Index 94.5 93.3
Present Situation 93.1 88.5
Expectatons 95.5 96.5
Appraisal of Present
Situation: Percent
Business Conditions
Good 16.7 18.2
Bad 21.8 23.3
Normal 61.5 58.5
Employment
Jobs plentiful 17.4 15.9
Jobs not so plentiful 58.8 58.6
Jobs hard to get 23.8 25.5
Expectations for Six
Months Hence: Percent
Business Conditions
Better 22.2 21.5
Worse 10.0 9.6
Same 67.8 68.9
Employment
More jobs 17.4 17.7
Fewer jobs 17.8 17.3
Same 64.8 65.0
Income
Increase 22.1 20.3
Decrease 10.1 9.1
Same 67.8 70.6
Plans to Buy Within
Six Months: Percent
Automobile
Yes 7.4 6.8
New 4.1 2.7
Used 2.3 2.7
Uncertain 1.0 1.4
Home
Yes 4.5 3.3
New 1.7 0.8
Lived in 1.9 1.4
Uncertain 0.9 1.1
Major appliances
Total plans 31.3 25.8
Refrigerator 4.8 4.0
Washing machine 3.7 3.5
TV Set 7.3 6.3
Vacuum Cleaner 5.8 4.0
Range 3.3 2.8
Clothes dryer 3.4 2.8
Air conditioner 3.0 2.4
Carpet 5.2 5.4
Vacation Intended Within
Six Months: Percent
Vacation Intended Destination 42.2
U.S. 35.2
Foreign country 9.2
Means of Travel
Automobile 22.4
Airplane 17.7
Other 4.0
(p) - preliminary
(r) - revised
Inflation
Interest Rates
Stock Prices
Expectations for Twelve Months Hence: Percent
Not Seasonally 2001 2002
Adjusted Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Inflation Rate
Average 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.2
Interest Rates
Higher 32.7 23.4 26.4 36.4 43.7 46.1 54.0 62.1 54.6
Same 36.0 30.9 32.6 34.6 36.9 37.0 34.6 28.0 34.6
Lower 31.3 45.7 41.0 29.0 19.4 16.9 11.4 9.9 10.8
Stock Prices
Increase 26.8 34.1 33.5 36.7 41.3 37.6 46.3 42.6 37.1
Same 35.2 29.5 34.5 33.4 34.5 34.2 35.1 37.0 40.3
Decrease 38.0 36.4 32.0 29.9 24.2 28.2 18.6 20.4 22.6
Not Seasonally 2002
Adjusted June July Aug.(r) Sept.(p)
Inflation Rate
Average 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2
Interest Rates
Higher 51.4 45.3 43.8 42.9
Same 35.6 39.3 36.5 39.5
Lower 13.0 15.4 19.7 17.6
Stock Prices
Increase 32.4 26.5 33.9 33.3
Same 28.6 35.4 30.0 34.3
Decrease 29.0 38.1 36.1 32.4
Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = 100
2001 2002
All series seasonally adjusted Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Age of Household Head
Under 35 105.3 91.9 100.2 106.2 109.1 104.1
35-54 98.2 84.5 86.5 96.0 96.6 94.6
55 and over 90.5 82.1 75.4 87.2 92.5 89.1
Household Income
Under $15,000 71.1 71.0 57.1 71.8 65.1 74.2
$15,000-24,999 80.9 74.7 79.4 83.1 85.5 78.0
$25,000-34,999 89.9 83.4 76.3 89.7 91.8 85.5
$35,000-49999 99.8 85.1 83.1 93.8 101.0 95.3
$50,000 and over 111.0 93.8 99.3 107.6 114.2 110.1
2002
All series seasonally adjusted Mar. Apr. May June July
Age of Household Head
Under 35 112.1 112.5 112.9 116.6 108.8
35-54 110.9 106.9 110.5 104.6 98.0
55 and over 107.2 105.9 106.6 101.9 90.1
Household Income
Under $15,000 76.8 72.1 74.8 77.3 71.8
$15,000-24,999 93.7 99.2 89.6 95.7 77.3
$25,000-34,999 112.1 106.7 108.1 102.7 85.6
$35,000-49999 112.2 108.1 111.2 105.7 106.9
$50,000 and over 124.4 122.2 127.8 118.4 111.3
3 mos.
2002 Percent
All series seasonally adjusted Aug.(r) Sept(p) Change *
Age of Household Head
Under 35 100.8 107.0 -7.4
35-54 97.7 93.3 -10.2
55 and over 86.6 86.5 -16.3
Household Income
Under $15,000 64.6 65.4 -10.0
$15,000-24,999 70.0 68.4 -24.2
$25,000-34,999 94.8 94.2 -13.5
$35,000-49999 101.6 96.1 -6.2
$50,000 and over 110.1 109.2 -10.2
Consumer Confidence by Region
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2001 2002
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
New England 124.7 108.8 98.6 84.5 103.3 88.5
Consumer Confidence Index 176.6 149.9 150.6 114.2 106.5 85.5
Present Situation 90.2 81.5 64.0 64.7 101.3 90.5
Expectations
Middle Atlantic 103.9 83.7 80.1 81.0 86.3 89.9
Consumer Confidence Index 133.8 105.8 97.2 87.5 91.0 84.3
Present Situation 84.1 69.0 69.8 76.6 83.3 93.7
Expectations
East North Central 106.6 90.9 95.6 85.1 88.1 92.7
Consumer Confidence Index 137.9 123.4 127.3 99.1 100.6 87.6
Present Situation 85.7 69.2 74.4 75.8 79.7 96.1
Expectations
West North Central 101.3 104.7 93.4 95.5 92.3 111.7
Consumer Confidence Index 145.2 152.9 123.4 131.4 116.2 130.7
Present Situation 72.0 72.7 73.4 71.6 76.3 99.1
Expectations
South Atlantic 120.5 105.2 85.9 89.6 100.8 103.7
Consumer Confidence Index 150.6 139.4 107.8 104.9 104.1 98.8
Present Situation 100.4 82.4 71.3 79.3 98.6 106.9
Expectations
East South Central 101.7 94.7 67.4 74.9 73.8 95.5
Consumer Confidence Index 128.3 126.3 91.9 87.4 72.2 106.0
Present Situation 84.0 73.6 51.1 66.6 74.8 88.5
Expectations
West South Central 123.5 105.0 98.5 97.7 107.3 101.2
Consumer Confidence Index 153.7 130.9 124.6 113.0 118.8 100.7
Present Situation 103.3 87.8 81.0 87.5 99.6 101.6
Expectations
Mountain 114.6 104.8 102.3 98.3 97.1 115.3
Consumer Confidence Index 138.9 144.2 126.4 108.5 114.3 112.1
Present Situation 98.5 78.5 86.3 91.5 85.6 117.5
Expectations
Pacific 108.9 97.6 89.3 82.4 89.5 94.7
Consumer Confidence Index 139.2 124.0 107.4 85.8 87.9 74.5
Present Situation 88.8 80.1 77.3 80.2 90.7 108.2
Expectations 88.1 87.1 88.8 80.1 77.3 80.2
Seasonally unadjusted
Index numbers: 2002
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July
New England 98.3 101.9 106.7 107.3 104.8 92.4
Consumer Confidence Index 89.6 95.6 115.5 119.2 110.7 96.3
Present Situation 104.1 106.1 100.8 99.4 100.9 89.9
Expectations
Middle Atlantic 81.6 95.1 92.3 95.9 84.2 84.8
Consumer Confidence Index 71.2 85.9 83.1 90.2 80.0 83.4
Present Situation 88.6 101.3 98.4 99.7 86.9 85.7
Expectations
East North Central 83.8 104.1 102.8 107.4 97.5 86.5
Consumer Confidence Index 73.9 95.8 91.3 108.5 95.3 84.6
Present Situation 90.5 109.7 110.5 106.6 98.9 87.8
Expectations
West North Central 99.5 104.9 103.0 95.6 101.5 93.2
Consumer Confidence Index 106.9 102.4 104.4 109.4 119.9 100.7
Present Situation 94.6 106.5 102.1 86.4 89.2 88.2
Expectations
South Atlantic 100.8 120.8 117.2 115.3 119.7 110.2
Consumer Confidence Index 96.3 120.8 120.9 121.6 130.0 122.2
Present Situation 103.9 120.8 114.7 111.0 112.9 102.2
Expectations
East South Central 97.0 108.8 95.4 95.1 103.7 86.5
Consumer Confidence Index 103.3 102.6 91.0 92.7 97.6 90.3
Present Situation 92.7 113.0 98.4 96.6 107.8 84.0
Expectations
West South Central 100.8 118.4 122.9 108.6 109.8 102.2
Consumer Confidence Index 102.0 119.9 125.1 112.6 109.8 112.1
Present Situation 100.0 117.4 121.5 105.9 109.9 95.6
Expectations
Mountain 106.6 118.2 114.5 124.5 113.0 95.7
Consumer Confidence Index 93.0 123.5 102.9 124.2 116.6 97.0
Present Situation 115.6 114.7 122.2 124.7 110.6 94.8
Expectations
Pacific 105.4 114.4 105.0 113.5 105.4 93.8
Consumer Confidence Index 94.6 103.3 95.7 102.5 91.7 91.0
Present Situation 112.7 121.9 111.2 120.9 114.5 95.7
Expectations 90.7 108.2 112.7 121.9 111.2 120.9
Seasonally unadjusted 3-MONTH AVG.
Index numbers: 2002 July, Aug., Sep. Percent
U.S. Average, 1985 = 100 Aug.(r) Sept(p) 2001 2002 Change
New England 90.5 92.4 117.0 91.8 -21.6
Consumer Confidence Index 113.7 96.9 165.7 102.3 -38.3
Present Situation 75.1 89.4 84.5 84.8 0.3
Expectations
Middle Atlantic 80.9 89.6 96.3 85.1 -11.6
Consumer Confidence Index 73.5 84.7 124.3 80.5 -35.2
Present Situation 85.8 92.9 77.6 88.1 13.5
Expectations
East North Central 86.7 90.4 101.9 87.9 -13.7
Consumer Confidence Index 79.0 88.3 136.4 84.0 -38.4
Present Situation 91.9 91.7 78.9 90.5 14.7
Expectations
West North Central 85.3 93.2 106.4 90.6 -14.9
Consumer Confidence Index 86.2 108.8 150.9 98.6 -34.7
Present Situation 84.7 82.8 76.7 85.3 11.1
Expectations
South Atlantic 101.1 99.4 114.9 103.6 -9.9
Consumer Confidence Index 110.1 99.2 148.8 110.5 -25.7
Present Situation 95.1 99.5 92.3 98.9 7.2
Expectations
East South Central 90.4 101.8 102.8 92.9 -9.6
Consumer Confidence Index 88.1 108.3 132.8 95.6 -28.1
Present Situation 92.0 97.4 82.7 91.1 10.2
Expectations
West South Central 100.2 94.0 118.3 98.8 -16.5
Consumer Confidence Index 103.2 87.9 147.3 101.0 -31.4
Present Situation 98.2 98.1 99.0 97.3 -1.7
Expectations
Mountain 93.5 101.1 116.4 96.7 -16.9
Consumer Confidence Index 88.8 102.0 148.9 95.9 -35.6
Present Situation 96.6 100.5 94.7 97.3 2.7
Expectations
Pacific 94.5 92.6 105.6 93.6 -11.3
Consumer Confidence Index 89.3 84.9 135.9 88.4 -35.0
Present Situation 97.9 97.8 85.3 97.1 13.9
Expectations 114.5 94.0 85.6 109.8 28.3
* Percent Change: Average of last three months shown as compared with
the same period a year ago. Regional data are not adjusted for seasonal
variation.
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