Expanding horizons: After a tough 2002, Latin America seeks to kick-start growth again. (Trade Talk).

Seven of the eight largest Latin American economies will post moderate growth with rising inflation in 2003, according to the LATIN TRADE Consensus Forecast. Each country's main issues:

Argentina A recent agreement with multilateral lenders will postpone tough debt negotiations until after the April presidential elections and into the second half of the year, when the new administration takes power. The economy will resume moderate growth in 2003, as a 10% currency devaluation maintains export growth momentum.

Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been fast off the blocks, but the markets nevertheless see a slow growth year ahead for Brazil. The recently announced austere budget will keep public debt concerns at bay and a slowing decline in the exchange rate will keep inflation in check. Chile Corruption scandals cloud opinion of the Lagos administration at home, but global observers see a gold mine. Free trade agreements with Europe and the United States, peso devaluation and dynamic export companies mean solid growth in 2003 and 2004.

Colombia President Alvaro Uribe has scored early success against paramilitary and guerrilla groups, yet the campaign has only just begun. The Colombian president is appealing to the U.S. government to increase its US$470 million annual aid package. Even with additional assistance, civil war uncertainty prevents any big economic boom.

Ecuador Dollarization has locked President Lucio Gutierrez into pushing for foreign debt relief abroad and austerity at home. The military officer and former coup leader is counting on curtailing corruption and pumping up oil earnings to reduce poverty in the Andean nation in 2003.

Mexico Slow U.S. growth means Mexico will remain on hold, too. President Vicente Fox, who has failed to get major reform through an opposition-led Congress, will be hard pressed to improve his party's position in the mid-term elections. At stake: the entire 500-member lower house, in July 2003.

Peru Boosted by increasing mining and natural gas investments at Camisea, gross domestic product is expected to expand 3.8% and 4.0% in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The big challenge will be to restart the country's US$400 million privatization program, which was halted after violent protests in 2002.

Venezuela After an 8% drop in 2002, gross domestic product will take another dive of almost 9% in 2003. Worse yet, the government will likely print money to overcome its budget shortfall, feeding inflation of almost 37%. Exchange rate controls and reduced oil output assure a very difficult year ahead.