Exclusive NPT donor research: 2008 elections will fuel giving to non-political charities.

Hillary Clinton. John McCain. Barack Obama. Mitt Romney. John Edwards. Rudolph Guiliani. Dennis Kucinich. Duncan Hunter. Bill Richardson. Sam Brownback. Tom Vilsack. Mike Huckabee. Joe Biden. Ron Paul.

Where's Lyndon LaRouche when you really need him?

The last time an incumbent president or vice president wasn't running for President of the United States was 1928 and the circumstance has caused a feeding frenzy for cash.

The vast majority of the candidates running for president have waived federal matching funds and will be going directly to donors for financial support. Those listed above are a few of the hopefuls running for the oval office and the election is still 20 months away. Granted that the herd will be culled after the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, but the politicians will be competing with charities in the mail and online for the eyes, hearts, minds and cash of donors.

According to an exclusive The Non-Profit Times national poll of consumers, the majority of Americans don't plan to give to political campaigns and thus will not be reducing the amount given to their favorite charities. However, that small number is still substantially more than previous elections. Fundraisers who had planned to reduce mailing during September and October of 2008 due to fear of mailbox clutter should probably stay the course and mail as usual. The same can be said for mailing into states with primary contests.

The study of 1,017 Americans was conducted for The NonProfit Times by Opinion Research during the first weekend in February. While some 66 percent of respondents said they would not be giving to political campaigns, that number increased in the more affluent households.

When combined with people who said political donations would not impact gifts to charity, the average went to 81 percent.

Just 5 percent of respondents said that political contributions would negatively impact charitable gifts. Another 5 percent said they probably would be giving more to charity between now and election day, even though they plan to make political donations. Interestingly, those who said they'd give more to charity plus contribute to candidates tended to earn between $25,000 and $50,000. The numbers declined as households became more affluent.

Men were more likely to give less to charity than women and women were more likely to give more than they had previously, according to The NonProfit Times polling data. Women were less likely to give to political campaigns than men.

Racially and ethnically, 68 percent of blacks said that they would not be giving to political campaigns, followed by 67 percent of whites and 61 percent of Hispanics.

The NonProfit Times national survey results excite conservative direct mail guru Richard Viguerie, chairman of American Target Advertising in Manassas,Va. "Some 25 percent say they are going to make a political contribution. That's enormous. In 1960 only about 60,000 people gave to Nixon/Kennedy. In the last election it was up to 8 million (donors) between the Democrats and Republicans," said Viguerie.

"With these numbers, we could be looking at 15 to 20 million donors. That's just astronomical. That could very well happen," said Viguerie.

He explained that the political donors, particularly those who give online, could be in training for gifts to non-political organizations. "The hardest contribution to get is that first one," said Viguerie, and those drawn to giving by politics could transfer that initial enthusiasm to the cause that brought about that first gift to a candidate.

"As marketers focus on how one candidate or another affects abortion, guns, taxes, foreign policy and whatever else, the response is going to dwarf anything we've seen in the campaigns," he said.

In a typical presidential election year, the mail pieces circulating can increase anywhere from 40 percent to 60 percent in the first half, and can as much as double in the second half of the year.

"This is a very different political season coming up," said Kristin McCurry, president, MINDset Direct in Arlington,Va. She compared it to post-September 11, when many nonprofits stopped mailing, particularly into New York City, Washington, D.C. and the area in Pennsylvania where United Flight 93 crashed. "Those who stayed the course were very happy that they did, and now they're reaping the benefits of mail. Those organizations that panicked and stopped mailing, they paid for it. And now, years later, are still missing that vital injection that they needed."

According to Steve Kehrli, director of planning and list services at Adams Hussey & Associates in Washington, D.C., timing is everything. Because with predictions of between 10 million and 20 million direct mail packages from political committees, and others adding more than 20 million pieces, the bottom line is there's going to be massive amounts of politically-infused mail going out during 2007 and 2008.

During a session at the recent Direct Marketing Association Nonprofit Federation conference entitled, "Nonpolitical--Then How Can You Raise Money in a Presidential Election Year?," Kehrli and McCurry, joined by experts Jean Simmons, director of direct response fundraising at Catholic Relief Services, and Mary Beth McIntyre, principle at Win-Win Giving, doled out tips for how nonpolitical nonprofits can survive the potentially very heated 2008 presidential and congressional election season.

PROSPECTING

Kehrli provided the following tips for how nonpolitical nonprofits can mail smarter during certain times of the year:

* Review performance history. After reviewing the performance history over several years for a domestic relief client, Kehrli created a response index across acquisition and house mailings, examining how the organization fared during election periods. The result was mail performance dipped during October and increased in December. In that case, Kehrli suggested the mailer reduce in October and increase mail in December. Additionally, examine your offers. If you have multiple offers, see if one performed better during the period, he suggested.

* Get to know your prospects' political leanings. Examine a suppression report or list interaction report from your most recent merge, said Kehrli, who cited one client where 6,000 of the 50,000 donors on the File were identified as Republican. "Understand your database, who's on there, who they're giving to," said Kehrli.

* Use external resources to produce a profile report. Or, said Kehrli, check with other internal sources around the makeup of your donors. Look into where your donors' attentions could go come election cycle. Talk to colleagues.

"I love the idea of a post-mortem on election day," said McCurry, who went on to discuss why 2008 will be "a very different political season because of major changes.

"We no longer have blue and red." "We have a kind of purple," McCurry said. "The purple" voters typically reside in states "we see as our donor states." Of the new stream of voters, "they'll be available to us after the election, and even after the primaries. However, they're very different donors than traditional donor lists--more idealistic. Keeping them with the standard appeals will be more difficult."

Not just more idealistic, these potential new donors are younger, more active, many of whom are making their first gift. They also have different expectations, said McCurry. They expect a different approach to the problem and the solution, targeted communication, integrated messaging, communities which they can join, and they want to understand the result and impact of their giving.

McCurry advised charities to increase focus on warm prospects within an organization, saying "you might need in this election year to turn to them as opposed to cold lists." She went so far as to suggest offering gift designation opporttunities." Most larger, committed donors won't select the designation option. They already trust you," said McCurry, who added that the option provides benefits such as measurable results. She also suggested you recognize the work donors' donations are providing in an acknowledgment, and "that they're playing for the right team, regardless of whether they're Democrat, Republican or Independent."

Because acquisition is typically the most unpredictable program, for the 2007-08 election season an organization should use the more predictable aspects of the program--but stay the course. Tap into lapsed pools, and begin to mail smaller to these groups, she suggested. Mail deeper to donors with multiple touch points with your organization, and, said McCurry, utilize modeling and cross-reference with activities within your organization and with other nonprofits. Consider new selects on old standbys, she added.

ELECTIONS VERSUS EMERGENCIES

Several factors have an impact on the direct mail program at Catholic Relief Services, an international disaster relief nonprofit with no political lean. According to Simmons, political climate and state of the economy are two of those factors.

"We deploy the same tactics as we would during an emergency campaign," said Simmons, who said CRS has struggled through the years, "carving out space, settling on the right mix." Mail delivery norms are closely monitored during the pre-election season. First class postage for certain segments might be needed to ensure timely delivery. And, an emphasis is placed on donor satisfaction.

"Today's Catholics in the U.S. are politically diverse," said Simmons, who cited the 2004 presidential election where 52 percent of Catholics voted for George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, while a commensurate 47 percent voted for Democratic candidate John Kerry. "Many Catholics have elevated the role of personal conscience and are comfortable choosing elements of the faith they agree with or disagree with. They place a limited value on loyalty and tradition."

Simmons noted that Catholics moving into the age groups associated with strong donor support are much more highly educated than previous generations.

Simmons said that CRS entices donors with:

* Quality incentives, donor surveys

* Focus on acknowledgment program to ensure it gets in homes in a timely manner

* Winning back of individuals with targeted mailings

* Offers to reinstate prospects to the list with fewer mailings

* Thank you calls to all new donors, and to all current donors who give gifts of $25 or more

A recent poll by Target Analysis Group for its Target National Index surveyed approximately 70 nonprofits, asking how they fared during the mid-term elections. McIntyre of Win-Win Giving and Target Analysis Group cited two examples, political and nonpolitical:

Organization #1--advocacy

* Moved October campaign to September

* Saw improved telemarketing and online results

* Direct mail was down and saw delays as a result of mid-term election.

* Result: Put increased focus on telemarketing and online push. Organization #2- nonpolitical, social service

* Horrible delivery in October/November

* Lower response rates

* Result: Planning to skew mail plan earlier in 2008 to mitigate the risk of impact in fall.

Decision 2008

Here are what experts at the recent Direct Marketing Association Non. profit Federation conference session entitled, Nonpolitical--Then How Can You Raise Money in a Presidential Election Year?, suggested for your mailing plan. Assess the 2007-08 political season and chart the course now.

* Spread out mailings, if warranted. And consider pulling back some volume from the heavy October and September months.

* Revisit an offer if it's appropriate and/or in format. Something that didn't work last time might in fact work this year.

* Anticipate blocked mail dates--the Democratic and Republican national committees are going to block mail dates, so charge your list broker with identifying these dates, thinking ahead, and clearing alternative dates.

* Exchange with new mailers--but be wary. Get up-front in writing how you'll get your rented names back from a political entity, and consider using a third party to ensure access to them post-election.

* Establish a post-election plan. By November 20, have a plan to be on top of your mailing come the next mailing season.

* Schedule a post-mortem now for Inauguration Day 2008.

The Question:

2008 will be a critically important election with the White House and Congress both up for grabs by Republicans or Democrats. Taking that into account, which of the following sentences BEST represents how your political donations in 2007 to 2008 will affect your ability to give to other organizations?

Possible Response:
I will not donate to political causes or
candidates and so my charitable gifts
won't be affected at all.

Men               64%
Women             69%

Region
  Northeast       65%
  North Central   71%
  South           64%
  West            66%
  Metro           67%
  Non-metro       63%

Race
  White           67%
  Black           61%
  Hispanic        68%

Possible Response:
My political donations won't affect
how much I give to charitable causes.

Men              17%
Women            13%

By Age
  18-24           5%
  25-34          16%
  35-44          11%
  45-54          19%
  55-64          17%
  65 and older   19%

Possible Response:
My political donations will mean
that I have less money to give to
charitable causes.

Education
  High School Incomplete   12%
  High School Completed     6%
  College Incomplete        3%
  College Graduate          3%

Household Income
  Less than $25,000         9%
  $25,000 to $35,000        3%
  $35,000 to $50,000        6%
  $50,000 to $75,000        4%
  $75,000 or more           2%
  Dual Income Household     4%