Evaluating the new U.S. TV season: buyer's opinion.

In April, as buyers shook the MIP dust from their feet and turned their thoughts toward a May trip to Los Angeles, VideoAge canvassed global expectations of finding programming heaven in the City of Angels.

With two terrestrial channels mad a raft of cable channels to program, the Global Television Network in Canada is probably the largest non-U.S, buyer of American programming and Doug Hoover, Global's senior vice-president, programming and promotion, is in a relatively buoyant mood. He refused to comment on the prospects for the new season, insisting, "It's premature to speculate on what the forthcoming season David Smyth of Sky One might look like when we haven't seen any pilots." But there is one aspect of the new season that excites and intrigues Global's acquisitions honcho, and that is "the prospect of some networks launching new series during the summer or early fall in response to this year's Olympics." And Hoover expects to see a continuing trend--instigated, he believes, by HBO--toward what he described as "short flight series," such as ABC's Kingdom Hospital, designed to create impact in the schedule. He also expects to see ever more reality, which he described as a good thing, believing that "a lot of these shows have actually been good for the business as a whole; they have created the 'water cooler effect' that has been missing for a while."

This is not a view shared by Jeff Ford, managing editor and director of acquisitions at the U.K.'s Five network. While he agreed with Hoover that there is no sign of a Stateside abatement of enthusiasm for the genre, "I very much hope to see the networks move away from reality and back to drama," insisted Ford. With the networks relying too heavily on reality and spin-offs from proven drama successes, Ford thinks that some of the more innovative U.S. drama is coming from cable with shows such as Sci-Fi's Stargate franchise and the new Denis Leary series, Rescue Me, following the lives of New York firefighters immediately after 9/11. F/X hopes the series will follow up the success of Nip/Tuck and The Shield.

And he's not alone in identifying this trend. Xavier Labrada, programming general manager at Mexico's Televisa, said he doesn't know whether the forthcoming season will be heavyweight or lightweight, but observed, "It had better be a heavyweight considering the growing competition from cable, and the ever declining numbers at all the networks." Per Labrada, the most successful acquisitions on Televisa are features, but he also has expectations of success for NBC's The Apprentice, the new season of Fox's The O.C. and MTV's Punk'd. At the Screenings, Alberto Ciurana, Televisa's vp of programming, will be looking for movies and some series, but carefully looking "because they don't appeal any more if not stripped. But the L.A. Screenings are also useful to get new ideas."

Back in the U.K., cable product is also featuring more prominently on the radar of David Smyth, head of acquisitions at Sky One (drama and comedy). Smyth believes that "cable channels have an advantage in that they can push editorial boundaries in a way that the terrestrials simply can't. Also there's less pressure for advertising revenue and so shows tend not be axed so brutally on cable." However, Smyth was keen to point out that, "We're by no means moving away from the networks; it's just that we are treating high-end cable more as equals than we used to." Whatever the source of the programming, though, he is quietly optimistic about the likely offerings, partly because he believes that "last year the networks suffered a big drop in young male demos, and a lot of the new commissions seem to reflect a desire to win back this audience, which from our perspective is good, as this demo is our core audience."

This is not an optimism shared by Rudiger Boess, head of acquisitions at Germany's Prosiebensatl. Boess' gloomy prediction is that "the new season is not likely to have any real hits such as Friends or Sex And The City." Traditionally, Prosiebensat1 has shown a great deal of American fare, but now, said Boess, "We only use U.S. shows in prime access and daytime; there isn't really anything with enough value for prime." He thinks part of the problem is that "many of the shows are too focused on U.S. issues and do not travel internationally." But, he promised, "We will see what is on offer in May, and hope to find some new hit shows, with the best bet being the new season of The O.C."

In Australia, David Mott, general manager, network programming at Ten Network, is much more sanguine, reporting that, "We are definitely seeing a trend towards solid popularity for high-end crime series such as Law & Order and CSI, which have budgets of U.S. $2 million per episode and you can really see it on screen." Ten already carries the Law & Order franchise, and will, said Mott, "happily take the spin-off, Trial By Jury," he is "also eagerly waiting to screen new gumshoe series, City Dream, Nice Guys and Veronica Mars. In fact, such is the strength of the popularity of such series, that, starting on May 2, Ten will be the first terrestrial network in the history of Australian broadcasting to drop the Sunday night movie, replacing it with N.C.I.S. and Law & Order: Criminal Intent.

All the Australian networks have deals tying them to certain U.S. studios, and so Mott is resigned to Friends spin-off and Matt LeBlanc vehicle, Joey, going to rival Nine Network. He's less than optimistic about the prospects for the ABC version of U.K. hit The Office, sensing instead that The Savages, a new sitcom about a blue-collar single dad with four teenage boys, might be the surprise dark horse in the comedy stakes, and possibly also the CBS offering starring Chris O'Donnell, The Amazing Westerburgs.

Five's Ford is sure that Joey will be hot at the Screenings, and he "also has quiet expectations of the new Chris O'Donnell starter, as well as two new series featuring stand-ups, That's Just Rodney, starring Rodney Carrington, and the eponymous Lewis Black.