Energy use in China: trends in oil demand and imports.
Since 1994 China has been the second largest consumer of energy, lagging Lagging
Strategy used by a firm to stall payments, normally in response to exchange rate projections. behind only the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. . In 2002 it surpassed Japan to also become the second largest consumer of oil, and by 2003 accounted for 7.6 percent of total world oil use and 12.1 percent of world energy use. As China becomes an increasingly important player in world energy markets, its behavior has the potential to impact world energy prices. This article provides an overview of energy use in China, with specific attention to trends in Chinese Chinese, subfamily of the Sino-Tibetan family of languages (see Sino-Tibetan languages), which is also sometimes grouped with the Tai, or Thai, languages in a Sinitic subfamily of the Sino-Tibetan language stock. oil production and consumption.
Overview of the Chinese Economy and Energy Sector
In 2003, China was the second largest economy in the world, after the United States, on a purchasing power parity Purchasing power parity
The notion that the ratio between domestic and foreign price levels should equal the equilibrium exchange rate between domestic and foreign currencies. basis. (2) China has experienced real GDP Real GDP
This inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP". growth of over 7 percent for each of the last 5 years, (3) growing an impressive 9.1 percent in 2003 and 9.7 percent at an annualized annualized
Of or relating to a variable that has been mathematically converted to a yearly rate. Inflation and interest rates are generally annualized since it is on this basis that these two variables are ordinarily stated and compared. rate in the first quarter of 2004. (4) Figure 1 demonstrates the growing share of GDP GDP (guanosine diphosphate): see guanine. that has been accounted for by the energy-intensive industry sector, reaching 51.1 percent of GDP in 2002, while services have remained stable at roughly 33 percent and agriculture has seen its share decline to 15.4 percent, from over 25 percent in 1990. These trends are expected to continue, as the agricultural sector grew only 2. (5) percent in 2003, while industry grew 17.7 percent. (5) Industrial production is concentrated along the coastal regions, with urban areas in Southeast China experiencing more rapid development than other areas of the country.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
In 2003, China consumed con·sume
v. con·sumed, con·sum·ing, con·sumes
1. To take in as food; eat or drink up. See Synonyms at eat.
a. 1178.3 million tons of oil equivalent (t.o.e.), (6) a 13.8 percent increase from 2002 and accounting for 12.1 percent of the world total, whereas the United States, the largest energy consumer in the world, used 2297.8 million t.o.e., accounting for 23.6 percent of total world energy consumption. The Russian Federation Russian Federation: see Russia. , the third largest energy consumer, used 670.8 million tons in the same year. Whereas China's energy consumption increased steadily in the early 1990s, it decreased from 1998 to 2000, rose again in 2001 and surpassed its 1997 value in 2002. (7)
After climbing during the first half of the 1990s, per capita [Latin, By the heads or polls.] A term used in the Descent and Distribution of the estate of one who dies without a will. It means to share and share alike according to the number of individuals. energy consumption in China has remained relatively stable since 1996, at around 900 kilograms (kg) of oil equivalent per year. In 2001 (the latest year data are available), the United States consumed 7,996 kg of oil equivalent per capita. (8) Growing GDP and rising development standards could contribute to increased per capita energy consumption in China.
Chinese demand for energy has been increasing rapidly, but obstacles such as a limited rate of exploration for new discoveries, inadequate infrastructure, and government control of the sector, including price setting, have led to widespread energy shortages. Blackouts have become increasingly common and hold the potential to limit expansion of industrial output. (9) The Chinese State Council has demanded increased spending to address blackouts, but until June June: see month. 2004 kept a tight grip on prices. (10) Artificially low prices set by the government kept energy demand high, but government officials were concerned that raising prices could interfere with farming and capital construction. (11) Chinese officials estimate an 11-percent increase in electricity consumption in 2004 over 2003, and indicated that areas will continue to be subject to staggered blackouts and electricity rationing rationing, allotment of scarce supplies, usually by governmental decree, to provide equitable distribution. It may be employed also to conserve economic resources and to reinforce price and production controls. . (12)
Coal is China's primary energy source, providing over 70 percent of the total energy used throughout the 1990s and, with 799.7 million t.o.e., accounted for 68 percent of energy consumption in 2003. Oil ranked second, accounting for 23 percent of energy consumption. Hydroelectricity made up 5.5 percent of energy consumption and natural gas comprised 2.5 percent. Nuclear power accounted for less than 1 percent of total energy consumed within China. (13)
Although absolute levels of coal use have been increasing (with the exception of the 1998-2000 period), coal's contribution to the total amount of energy used has been declining, while consumption of energy derived from oil and hydro-power has increased. (14) Coal will likely continue to be important in China, as the International Energy Agency projects that 34.4 percent of the world's coal mining investment over the next 20 years will be in China. (15) However, investment in other forms of energy is expected to grow as well. Government concerns regarding the environmental consequences of extensive coal use may accelerate this transition. (16)
China has placed an increased emphasis on hydro-power; when the Three Gorges The Three Gorges (Simplified Chinese: 三峡; Traditional Chinese: 三峽; Pinyin: Sānxiá [ project on the Yangtze River Yangtze River
Chinese Chang Jiang or Ch'ang Chiang
River, China. Rising in the Tanggula Mountains in west-central China, it flows southeast before turning northeast and then generally east across south-central and east-central China to the East China is completed in 2009 it will be the world's largest capacity power plant, at more than 18,000 megawatt-electric (MWe), which is 18 gigawatts (GW). Already, with just 7 of its 26 turbines operating, it is the largest hydroelectric power hydroelectric power: see power, electric; water power.
Electricity produced from generators driven by water turbines that convert the energy in falling or fast-flowing water to mechanical energy. plant in China, with a capacity of 4,970 MWe. (17) Planning for other hydro-power projects is underway.
Production capacity for other types of energy is also likely to increase, with plans to build four new nuclear-power stations by 2020. (18) Nuclear power currently accounts for 1.6 percent of energy capacity, but the government hopes to expand this figure to 4 percent. (19) Plans are also underway to construct a pipeline to transport natural gas from the Tarim gasfield in the northwest to Shanghai Shanghai (shăng`hī`, shäng`hī`), city (1994 est. pop. 12,980,000), in, but independent of, Jiangsu prov., E China, on the Huangpu (Whangpoo) River where it flows into the Chang (Yangtze) estuary. on the eastern coast. (20) Additionally, continued infrastructure improvements may allow the southern inland areas to use forms of energy other than the nearby coal, increasing demand for a wider variety of energy sources. With oilfields throughout Northeast China Northeast China (Simplified Chinese: 中国东北; Traditional Chinese: 中國東北; Pinyin: , the Tarim basin in the northwest, and extensive offshore drilling Offshore drilling typically refers to the act of extracting resources, primarily oil, in an ocean or lake. Controversy
As with all oil drilling, there has been a certain level of controversy surrounding the issue. , there is also significant potential for an increase in oil production to help meet the rising demand for energy.
Domestic Oil Production and Import Sources
In 1998 the Chinese government Ever since Republic of China founded in January 1st, 1912, China has had several regional and national governments. List
v. re·or·gan·ized, re·or·gan·iz·ing, re·or·gan·iz·es
To organize again or anew.
To undergo or effect changes in organization. a variety of state owned oil assets into two vertically organized, regional firms: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation
CNPC Centro Nacional de la Productividad y la Calidad (Chile)
CNPC Commander, Navy Personnel Command
CNPC China National Philatelic Corporation (Chinese stamp authority) ) in the north and west and the China Petrochemical petrochemical, any one of a large group of chemicals derived from a component of petroleum or natural gas. The cracking processes for manufacturing gasoline produce vast quantities of gaseous hydrocarbons. Corporation (Sinopec) in the south. Oil production in China is dominated by these firms on land and by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC CNOOC China National Offshore Oil Corporation ) for all offshore exploration and production. Offshore energy sources account for more than 10 percent of China's domestic crude oil production. (21)
China produced 3396 barrels (22) daily (b/d) in 2003, making it the sixth largest producer of oil worldwide. Oil consumption in 2003 registered at 5379 thousand b/d. (23) As shown in Figure 2, oil consumption in China has outpaced production since 1993, causing China to become a net importer of oil. Over the last 10 years, consumption has grown more rapidly than production, and the amount of oil imported has increased every year. China imported 91.1 million tons of crude oil in 2003 and 47.8 million tons in the first 4 months of 2004, representing a 58 percent year-on-year increase in oil imports. (24) In 2003, 36 percent of China's oil consumption was imported. (25)
[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]
Oil imports come primarily from the Middle East (40 percent) and the Asia-Pacific region (30 percent). Other significant sources of oil include West Africa West Africa
A region of western Africa between the Sahara Desert and the Gulf of Guinea. It was largely controlled by colonial powers until the 20th century.
West African adj. & n. (12 percent), the Former Soviet Union (9 percent), and East and Southern Africa
To acquire a variety of assets that do not tend to change in value at the same time. To diversify a securities portfolio is to purchase different types of securities in different companies in unrelated industries. its suppliers of oil and its corporations are investing in oil fields This list of oil fields includes major fields of the past and present. The list is incomplete; there are more than 40,000 oil and gas fields of all sizes in the world. both domestically and abroad. Together, the three largest firms (CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC) have invested in fourteen countries. (28) China is expected to account for nearly 15 percent of global energy investment for the 2001-2030 period, with oil receiving a significant portion of those funds. (29)
There are four state-backed crude oil importers, of which the China National Chemical Import and Export Corporation (Sinochem) is the largest. Sinochem has worked closely with the other three licensed importers, the China International United Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Unipec, owned largely by Sinopec (30)), CNPC, and Zhuhai Zhenrong, to implement domestic refining refining, any of various processes for separating impurities from crude or semifinished materials. It includes the finer processes of metallurgy, the fractional distillation of petroleum into its commercial products, and the purifying of cane, beet, and maple sugar and distribution. Although Sinochem typically imports and exports quantities determined by State planners, CNOOC has some agreements that allow for direct exports from offshore fields. (31)
In an effort to facilitate oil imports, the main corporations have signed agreements to build pipelines and expand shipping capacity. CNPC is financing pipelines from Kazakhstan and from Russia that, when completed in 2008 and 2010 respectively, could allow additional imports of up to 50 million tons per year. (32) Sinopec has signed an agreement with the China Ocean Shipping Company (Cosco) to double the capacity of Cosco's fleet to carry crude oil. (33) As growth in demand outpaces growth in crude oil production, China's oil giants have become more involved in investing overseas and developing efficient import solutions.
Oil consumption has been steadily increasing in China, nearly doubling in the 10 years from 1993 to 2003 (from just less than 3 million b/d to roughly 6 million b/d), accounting for 7.6 percent of world oil consumption. In 2002, China surpassed Japan to become the second largest oil consumer in the world, following the United States. (34) Figure 3 shows the rise in China's oil use along with the rise in world oil prices for the period. China is projected to account for 16 percent of the increase in world oil demand between 2000 and 2030. (35) In 2003, oil consumption was 11 percent higher than a year earlier, and accounted for 41 percent of the growth in world oil demand. (36)
[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]
Figure 4 details how much oil is used by each sector, with transport (42 percent of China's oil use) and industry (32 percent) leading the list in 2001. Each sector shows room for growth and is expected to contribute to the overall increase in demand for oil. Oil use is expected to rise 3.3 to 4.6 percent each year. (37)
Transportation was the largest user of oil in 2001, at 42 percent of the total. As private ownership of automobiles becomes more prevalent, oil use in transportation is likely to increase. Automobile sales rose 34.2 percent in 2003, bringing total vehicles purchased to 4.39 million. (38) The Development Research Center of the State Council, a part of China's cabinet, believes there will be more than 156 million vehicles in China by 2020, a sharp increase from the 1998 automobile stock of 13 million. (39) Road transport is expected to be the primary contributor to increased demand of transportation fuels. (40) Consumption of oil in the transportation sector has been growing rapidly, having more than doubled from 26 million tons in 1990 to more than 65 million tons in 2000. (41) This growth is anticipated to continue as rising incomes and a growing managerial class enable more people to afford automobiles. (42)
Although cars typically consume gasoline gasoline or petrol, light, volatile mixture of hydrocarbons for use in the internal-combustion engine and as an organic solvent, obtained primarily by fractional distillation and "cracking" of petroleum, but also obtained from natural gas, by , manufacturers have made an effort to introduce diesel cars in China. Diesel motors save 15-30 percent of oil use compared to gasoline engines gasoline engine: see internal-combustion engine.
Most widely used form of internal-combustion engine, found in most automobiles and many other vehicles. . Some estimates indicate that if all 18.8 million sedans in China switched to diesel motors, it would save 75 million liters of oil per day. This shift is expected to take place slowly, as the quality of diesel in China is still relatively low. (43)
Oil use in transportation may also increase as the government implements extensive infrastructure reforms, including more than $42 billion to build 4,375 miles of new railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more. track, leading to greater capacity on the railway systems. (44) The new Guangzhou international airport, which opened in August 2004, may boost jet fuel demand. (45) More efficient airports and diminishing di·min·ish
v. di·min·ished, di·min·ish·ing, di·min·ish·es
a. To make smaller or less or to cause to appear so.
b. wariness regarding the impact on public health of outbreaks of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Definition
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is the first emergent and highly transmissible viral disease to appear during the twenty-first century. (SARS) could encourage increased air travel to China.
China's industrial energy requirements are high in part because of high energy intensity in heavy industry. Although China has made significant gains towards improving its energy efficiency, particularly in aluminum and petroleum refining where its values are well within the OECD OECD: see Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. range, there is still room for progress. While it takes China 36 gigajoules (GJ) to produce a ton of crude steel, OECD countries range from 18-26 GJ/ton. Similarly, where China needs 73-90 GJ/ton to produce ethylene ethylene (ĕth`əlēn') or ethene (ĕth`ēn), H2C=CH2, a gaseous unsaturated hydrocarbon. It is the simplest alkene. , OECD countries produce it for 58-68 GJ/ton. (46) If China continues to develop an efficient energy system it may somewhat mitigate mit·i·gate
To moderate in force or intensity.
miti·gation n. the effect of sectoral growth on overall energy demand.
As figure 5 indicates, chemicals and petrochemicals account for a majority of oil consumption in industry. China is the world's largest producer of ammonia ammonia, chemical compound, NH3, colorless gas that is about one half as dense as air at ordinary temperatures and pressures. It has a characteristic pungent, penetrating odor. , an intermediate product in the fertilizer fertilizer, organic or inorganic material containing one or more of the nutrients—mainly nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, and other essential elements required for plant growth. industry. (47) Although ammonia production Because of its many uses, ammonia is one of the most highly-produced inorganic chemicals. There are literally dozens of large-scale ammonia production plants worldwide. The worldwide production in 2004 was 109,000,000 metric tons. China produced 28. is expected to increase, the energy intensity used to produce ammonia has the potential to decrease from a 1998 value of roughly 1.75 tons of coal equivalent (tce)/ton to projections for 2020 ranging from 1.35 to 1.5 tce/ton. (48) Strong growth in China's ethylene production capacity has boosted oil demand. (49) Such growth--first quarter production of ethylene in 2004 was 7.4 percent higher than its first quarter 2003 value (50)--is likely to continue due to current investments aimed at expanding ethylene cracking cracking - cracker capacity. (51)
Although steel and iron production represented only 7 percent of China's oil use in industry in 2001, steel grew to become the largest single consumer of energy in China in 2003, representing over 15 percent of industrial energy consumption in the first quarter of 2004. (52) Steel production has grown rapidly over the last 30 years (from 21 million metric tons (mmt) in 1971 to 124 mmt in 1999), making China the largest steel producer in 2000. (53) Steel production is projected to increase, but there is potential for the energy intensity in producing steel to decrease from 1.4 tce/ton to just under 1 tce/ton. (54) For January-March 2004 steel production in China was up 26.4 percent from the same period in 2003. (55)
China has dominated world cement cement, binding material used in construction and engineering, often called hydraulic cement, typically made by heating a mixture of limestone and clay until it almost fuses and then grinding it to a fine powder. production since the 1980s, and produced 36 percent of the world total in 2000. (56) During the first quarter of 2004, cement production was 23.8 percent higher than in the first quarter of 2003. (57) Automobile production has also grown tremendously, up 24.0 percent in the first quarter of 2004 compared to the same period a year earlier, (58) and China is now the fourth largest global automobile producer.
Residential Use and Power Generation
Aside from low levels of direct residential oil use, primarily stemming from kerosene kerosene or kerosine, colorless, thin mineral oil whose density is between 0.75 and 0.85 grams per cubic centimeter. A mixture of hydrocarbons, it is commonly obtained in the fractional distillation of petroleum as the portion boiling off consumption used for household heating, most residential energy use is in the form of electricity. Household electricity demand has been growing rapidly in conjunction with growing appliance A stand-alone hardware device or software environment dedicated to a specific task. See hardware appliance and software appliance. ownership. Rapid growth in electricity consumption has stretched power generation capacity, forcing plants to use oil-fired units to meet electricity demand. (59) Factories and shopping malls have increased use of diesel generators A diesel generator is the combination of a diesel engine with an electrical generator (often called an alternator) to generate electric energy.
Diesel generators are used in places without connection to the power grid or as emergency power-supply if the grid fails. to compensate for power shortages on the national power grids. (60) Both of these changes are expected to be short run trends, with power plants investing in other energy sources (coal, hydropower hy·dro·pow·er
Hydroelectric power. , natural gas) to meet electricity needs, which may ease demand for oil. Middle distillates, which include kerosene and diesel, have grown rapidly over the last 10 years, doubling from under 1 million b/d in 1993 to nearly 2 million b/d in 2003. (61)
China vs. the United States
Figure 6 compares Chinese production and consumption of oil with U.S. oil production and consumption. To fuel its growing economy, China is now the second largest global consumer of energy as well as of oil, following the United States. In 2003, the United States accounted for 25.1 percent of world oil consumption and China accounted for 7.6 percent. Together, they consumed one-third of the global oil supply. On the production side, China is the sixth largest producer of oil in the world, and the United States ranks third, following Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia (sä`dē ərā`bēə, sou`–, sô–), officially Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, kingdom (2005 est. pop. and the Russian Federation. In 2003, U.S. oil production accounted for 9.2 percent of world production and Chinese production accounted for 4.6 percent. For both countries, oil imports continue to grow as the gap between domestic production and consumption continues to widen wid·en
tr. & intr.v. wid·ened, wid·en·ing, wid·ens
To make or become wide or wider.
widen·er n. . (62)
[FIGURE 6 OMITTED]
In 2003, China accounted for 41 percent of the growth in world oil demand and its oil imports rose 32 percent, (63) part of an ongoing trend. In the 1993-2003 period, U.S. oil consumption grew 16 percent, while China's oil consumption grew 105 percent. Unlike the United States, where petroleum production has declined, oil production in China has climbed over the last 10 years. Nonetheless, this increase in production has not kept pace with the growth in oil consumption; thus, China's reliance on imported oil is likely to continue to grow.
As China continues the development process, it will likely maintain its shift away from the production of agricultural goods, deriving a greater share of its GDP from the energy intensive industrial sector. Increased focus on industry, higher levels of automotive transportation, and an increase in overall energy use may continue to increase demand for oil. Continuing growth in its level of oil imports could have an important impact on world prices.
Abbreviations and Conversions
b/d barrels per day Barrels per day (abbreviated BPD, bbl/d, bpd, bd or b/d) is a measurement used to describe the amount of crude oil (measured in barrels) produced or consumed by an entity in one day.
EJ exajoule (1018 joules)
GJ gigajoule (109 joules)
LPG LPG: see liquefied petroleum gas.
1. LPG - Linguaggio Procedure Grafiche (Italian for "Graphical Procedures Language"). dott. Gabriele Selmi. Roughly a cross between Fortran and APL, with graphical-oriented extensions and several peculiarities. liquid petroleum gas
Mt metric ton
T.o.e. tons of oil equivalent (metric)
tce ton of coal equivalent (metric)
(1) Joanne Guth is an international economist and Melissa Ginsburg is an intern intern /in·tern/ (in´tern) a medical graduate serving in a hospital preparatory to being licensed to practice medicine.
in·tern or in·terne
n. in the Office of Economics at the U.S. International Trade Commission. Office of Economics. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors. They are not the views of the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC USITC United States International Trade Commission (US Federal agency) ) as a whole or of any individual Commissioner.
(2) Central Intelligence Agency, "China," CIA CIA: see Central Intelligence Agency.
(1) (Confidentiality Integrity Authentication) The three important concerns with regards to information security. Encryption is used to provide confidentiality (privacy, secrecy). World Factbook, found at Internet address There are two kinds of addresses that are widely used on the Internet. One is a person's e-mail address, and the other is the address of a Web site, which is known as a URL. Following is an explanation of Internet e-mail addresses only. For more on URLs, see URL and Internet domain name. http://www.cia.gov/cia/ pteblicationslfactbooklgeoslch.html, retrieved on July 2, 2004.
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A political organization founded and controlled by a national Communist party. of China on National Economic and Social Development in 2003," Feb. 26, 2004, China Economic News, Supplement No. 3, Apr. 5, 2004; and External Services Division, Economic Daily, "Major Index of China's National Economy for the First Quarter 2004," China Economic News, No. 18, series 1218, May 17, 2004.
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(6) The Statistics Division of the United Nations Secretariat United Nations Secretariat
Administrative body that coordinates United Nations activities. Its staff, recruited on the basis of merit, is composed of several thousand permanent professional experts from member states, including translators, clerks, technicians, defines one ton of oil as equivalent to 1.0 x 10 to the power of 7 kcal, that is, 10 million kilocalories.
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tr.v. al·le·vi·at·ed, al·le·vi·at·ing, al·le·vi·ates
To make (pain, for example) more bearable: a drug that alleviates cold symptoms. See Synonyms at relieve. in the short term," China Economic News, No. 24, series 1224, June 28, 2004. p. 3.
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EIU Eastern Illinois University
EIU Even If Used
EIU Experimental Interaction Unit
EIU Engine Interface Unit
EIU Ethernet Interface Unit
EIU Electronic Interface Unit
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1. Having or formed of two sides; two-sided.
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Joanne Guth and Melissa Ginsberg (1)
Figure 4 Oil use by sector, 2001 Residential 7.2% Commerce & Public Services 9.6% Agriculture 9.8% Industry 31.5% Transport 41.8% Other Non-Specified 0.1% Source: International Energy Agency, "Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, 2002." Note: Table made from pie chart. Figure 5 Oil consumption by industry sector, 2000 Non-Ferrous Metals 1.8% Textile & Leather 2.8% Machinery 4.0% Construction 5.7% Non-Specified 5.9% Iron and Steel 6.9% Non-Metallic Minerals 12.2% Food & Tobacco 1.7% Transport Equipment 1.3% Mining & Quarrying 1.1% Paper, Pulp & Print 1.1% Chemical & petrochemicals 55.5% Source: International Energy Agency, "Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, 2002." Note: Table made from pie chart.