Energy through 2030.

Energy plays a key role in economic prosperity, and lately it has commanded significant public attention. It's our business, and so we continually assess trends and issues that are likely to affect energy in the future. Key elements of our outlook are provided here.

Compared to 1970, economies today use substantially less energy per dollar of economic output. We expect an even faster future rate of improvement as more-efficient technologies are developed and used to help meet growing transportation and power generation needs and tightening environmental standards.

Economic growth of about 3 percent per year through 2030 will continue to drive energy demand. In concert with rising personal incomes, we expect energy demand to grow about 1.7 percent per year. By 2030, demand could be about 335 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, or about 50 percent more than today. The vast majority of this increase will be in developing nations, consistent with faster economic growth and substantial increases in personal vehicle use.

Fossil fuels meet more than 80 percent of the world's energy needs, and we expect this trend to continue through 2030. In the very long term, a more-diversified energy mix is likely with increasing opportunities for nuclear and bio-fuel energies. However, for the foreseeable future, fossil fuels are the only energy forms with the scale and versatility to meet the world's growing needs.

We believe innovative technologies, access to resources, substantial investments, continued energy conservation and responsible development efforts will help ensure reliable and affordable energy to meet future world needs.

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By 2030, the world's economic output is expected to be four times what it was in 1980. This economic growth is expected to be accompanied by nearly a doubling of global oil demand.

Abundant resources exist to meet these energy needs. According to U.S. Geological Survey estimates, recoverable "conventional" oil resources equal about 3 trillion barrels (out of about 7 trillion barrels in place). In addition, current estimates of extra-heavy oil (EHO), oil sands and oil shale total about 7 trillion barrels. These frontier resources are concentrated in Canada, Venezuela, Russia, the Caspian and the United States.

To meet estimated oil demand in 2030, production from new developments will need to reach nearly 100 MBD, an amount greater than today's global production. A key to achieving this increase will be continuing technology advances. For example, ExxonMobil's Sahkalin Island project in East Russia will utilize more than 20 extended-reach wells, directionally drilled from the world's most powerful land rig to accurately tap resources more than 5 miles offshore.

We also expect OPEC nations to contribute a greater share of oil supplies, consistent with their large undeveloped reserves. Annual production increases post-2010 of approximately 1 MBD are anticipated.

The cooperation of governments to expand access to resources, promote economic and responsible resource development, and nurture international trade relationships is vital. These will be critical to attracting the huge investments needed to provide reliable and affordable energy supplies.