Empty shops, empty promises for Coney Island Pakistanis. (Enemies of the State).

Nobody knows exactly how many Pakistanis have left New York in the last several months, but residents of Brooklyn's "Little Pakistan" on Coney Island Avenue talk of an exodus.

"Many shops have closed," says Ashgar Choudhri, a man who locals describe as the unofficial "mayor" of one of the largest concentrations of Pakistanis in the country. Sitting in his small accounting office and flanked by framed photo ops of himself with a range of local politicians, including former New York Governor and Mayor Mario Cuomo, Choudrhi talks of the demise of this vibrant community. He says the streets are quiet and that the 24-hour stores in the neighborhood have started closing at night.

A taxi service dispatcher who says he was the first Pakistani owner of a car service in New York agrees: "There was a time in the evening, when you walked down the street and it was full. Now it's empty."

Fueled by a steady influx of immigrants and a strong economy, the population of Pakistanis has grown steadily over the last 20 years in New York--and around the country. As of the 2000 Census, there were approximately 267,000 Pakistan-born U.S. citizens nationwide, Choudhri and other local leaders claim there are as many as 150,000 Pakistanis living in the New York metropolitan area alone. As in many other immigrant communities, some of this population growth has come without the blessing of the INS--a significant number of new arrivals have come into the country illegally via Canada or Mexico or remain here illegally, having overstayed their initial short term visas.

But since 9/11 and the onset of "special registration," the flow of new immigrants-- legal and illegal--has virtually stopped, and many of those who were "out of status" are now leaving the country to avoid arrest or deportation. The impact of these trends--coupled with the broader downturn of the U.S. economy--has been devastating for the insular community of Coney Island Avenue and for similar Pakistani communities across the U.S.

Downstairs, on the ground floor of Mr. Choudhri's office building, several men sit at desks in a one-stop office that offers insurance coverage, a money exchange, and a travel agency. These men say that a third of those without legal status are going back to Pakistan, another third are heading to Canada, and those "with the most nerve" are simply staying put and "hoping not to be caught." According to federal immigration literature, those who do not register forfeit any future chance of becoming legal immigrants and/or U.S. citizens.

For individuals who are "our of status" and who have been living in the country for years, the stakes are high. While Mr. Choudhri's downstairs neighbors chat, three such men come in to buy one-way tickets to Islamabad. Just outside, their late model Ford utility van is double parked and emblazoned with a sign advertising their weatherproofing business. Why are they leaving?

"We don't have status," one of them says, and they open their wallets to demonstrate the irony and futility of their American credit cards and drivers licenses.

What will they do with the truck, their homes, their belongings? "Leave them... maybe we can sell," they say with an air of resignation. They are in a hurry, though, and they know they won't get a good price.

Along with immigrants from Saudi Arabia, Pakistani immigrants were told to register by February 21, but that date was changed to March 21, thanks, most likely, to intensive lobbying on the part of the Pakistani government. Islamabad has argued that Pakistanis shouldn't even be on the list given the country's efforts as a "front line ally" in the "war on terrorism."

But many families are already on the move.

By March 12, the Canadian immigration service was reporting 2,111 refugee claims by Pakistanis since January 1, 2003. This seems daunting compared with only 3,338 in all of 2002; however, Rene Mercier, spokesman for the Canadian immigration service says the numbers have been leveling off in the last two weeks.

"The people that really need to go, they have left already," explains Norman of Popular Travel on Coney Island Avenue. Norman's agency, like other travel agencies in the Pakistani community did see a rise in the sale of one way tickers-especially in the first weeks of February--but they have not otherwise seen a major overall increase in business.

Meanwhile, Mr. Choudhri says he has heard reports that in March U.S. immigration authorities deported a fourth chartered planeload of Pakistani nationals. Though the government would not release numbers on deportations, immigration representatives say there have been 133,912 registrations since the beginning of the program, and 119 detainees remain in custody.

Between people who have been deported and people who have left voluntarily over land to Canada or via one-way plane tickets home, between about 5,000 and 10,000 Pakistani residents have left the New York area alone. Local leaders put the number much higher. Moe Raszvi, founder of a local community center estimates 20,000 have departed.

Whatever the number, Coney Island Avenue shopkeepers say it is too high. It is equally distressing, they say, that no new immigrants have arrived to take their place. Hashim Choudhary, the president of a local insurance brokerage, says that he has lost 45 to 47 percent of his business as have most Coney Island Avenue shopkeepers. The departures have taken a daunting toll, leaving a severely depressed economy and an entire community on edge.

Staring past a picture of himself shaking hands with Mario Cuomo, Mr. Choudhri says, simply, "People are still waiting, surviving."

Oliver Ryan is a graduate student at Columbia School of Journalism.