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Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context: BLS projections are carried out against a background of explicit assumptions and model-based findings that connect the past to the future; the projections form the basis for providing information on entering the job market, changing careers, and choosing appropriate educational and training paths to job success.

This issue of the Monthly Labor Review resents the BLS employment outlook for e period from 2002 to 2012. The 2012 projections continue a longstanding tradition of BLS examinations of future job prospects dating back more than 50 years. First begun to assist returning World War II veterans back into the world of work, the BLS projections program has grown steadily from a project that reported simple descriptive material about available occupations to an undertaking encompassing a model-based approach that develops projections of the macroeconomy, the labor force, industry employment and output, and occupational employment growth.

The BLS projections are based on a long-term view of the U.S. economy that assumes a long-run full-employment economy in which labor markets clear. As a result, BLS projections address the question, "How would employment in industries and occupations grow if the economy were to operate at its full potential a decade from now?" In the article "The U.S. economy to 2012: signs of growth," which focuses on projected trends in the macroeconomy, Betty W. Su reports the results of a macroeconomic model according to which the overall U.S. economy is expected to grow from $9.4 trillion in 2002 to $12.6 trillion in 2012 (measured in chain-weighted 1996 dollars). This increase represents a growth rate of 3.0 percent per year in the real gross domestic product (GDP) of the economy. On the basis of the results from the macroeconomic model, the unemployment rate in 2012 is projected to be 5.2 percent and the annual rate of growth of productivity is expected to be 2.1 percent. Given these broad indicators of economic growth, the model used to describe macroeconomic activity provides detailed projections of four categories of expenditures: personal consumption, investment, government, and foreign trade. These projections are necessary as input to the industry projections that, in turn, form the basis of the occupational projections.

Another major factor to consider in projecting the path of the U.S. economy is the available labor supply over the next decade. In the article "Labor force projections to 2012: the graying of the U.S. workforce," Mitra Toossi uses Census Bureau population projections based on the 2000 census, along with historical trends in labor participation rates, to project labor force levels and participation rates for 136 age, sex, and race or ethnicity groups over the 2002-12 period. Overall, the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the labor force to grow from 144.9 million in 2002 to 162.3 million in 2012, an annual growth rate of approximately 1.1 percent.

The third major area of analysis translates the growth in the macroeconomy into the levels of final market output of each industry and the levels of intermediate inputs that are purchased by each industry to produce that output. In the article "Industry output and employment projections to 2012," Jay M. Berman reports that the flow of goods and services purchased in the production process or delivered to the. market as final products will reach a total of $23.2 trillion in chain-weighted 1996 dollars) in 2012. The number of jobs needed to support this level of economic activity is expected to grow from 144.0 million to 165.3 million. The 2002-12 projections present detailed industry flows of inputs and outputs, using the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This is the first set of BLS employment projections developed from the NAICS; past projections utilized the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification System (SIC). The 2004-2005 BLS Career Guide to Industries, a companion publication to the BLS projections, offers a detailed description of NAICS-based industries and the impact the changeover will have on industry and occupational employment over the 2002-12 period.

On the basis of the description of industry production and total employment needs reported in the three articles, data from the Occupational Employment Survey (OES) are used to project the occupational staffing patterns needed in each industry. The OES gives detailed occupational employment information on each of the NAICS-based industries. These data are coupled with expert assessment of likely trends to produce employment projections for 725 detailed occupations. In the article "Occupational employment projections to 2012," Dan Hecker reports the results of the BLS analysis of the projected trends in the occupational employment that produces the goods and services of the U.S. economy. The occupational information provided in this article includes estimates of self-employment that are based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Total employment is projected to increase by 14.8 percent, reflecting a net employment growth of 21.3 million jobs over the 2002-12 period. The number of job openings due to both net employment growth and net replacement needs is projected to be 56.3 million. (1) Self-employment is projected to decline 2.3 percent, from 11.5 million to 11.2 million. A separate companion publication, the 2004-2005 BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, gives a detailed description of more than 300 occupations; the book is widely used by students and jobseekers to obtain career advice.

Together, the four articles presented in this issue of the Review offer a wealth of detail on projected trends in the macroeconomy, the labor force, industry output and employment, and occupational employment growth. The purpose of this overview is to present some of the most significant findings that emerge from the articles and to provide an overall context from which to view them. Accordingly, the sections that follow examine the potential impact of baby-boomer retirements, occupational labor shortages, immigration, and high-paying, fast-growing occupations on the economy over the 2002-12 period.

Any attempt to project the direction and path of the U.S. economy and, in particular, longer run occupational employment needs, is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The BLS approach is to state the underlying assumptions clearly and present the model-based findings about the long-run position of the economy in as transparent and objective a manner as possible. The Bureau has an ongoing tradition of evaluating its estimates against the actual. state of the economy in the end year of the projections. Waiting 10 years to judge the accuracy of the projections, however, belies the more pressing need to assess the reasonableness of the BLS description of the likely secular long-run trends in the economy and their implications for occupational employment trends. The next section examines this subject.

A comparison of macroeconomic trends

One standard for assessing the reasonableness of the BLS description of the long-run position of the U.S. economy is to compare how the description of the next 10 years stands with respect to the past behavior of the economy on the basis of a broad set of macroeconomic indicators. Toward that end, the following tabulation, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, compares peak quarters, about 10 years apart, of U.S. business cycles in the post-World War II era (the last period listed, 2000-12, based on annual data, represents a comparison between the last full year of the 1991-2001 expansion with the ending year of the BLS projections--which, as noted earlier, represents a level of economic activity associated with the economy operating at its full potential):
 Annual average
 growth rate
 of real GDP
 Years spanned (percent)

1960, quarter II, to 1969, quarter IV 4.4
1969, quarter IV, to 1980, quarter I 3.3
1980, quarter I, to 1990, quarter III 2.9
1990, quarter III, to 2001, quarter I 3.1
2000 through 2012 2.7


The expansion of the U.S. economy has slowed considerably since the 1960s, from an annual rate of 4.4 percent between 1960 and 1969 to around 3 percent per year since 1980. Based on the BLS projection of GDP for 2012, the projected growth rate of 2.7 percent over the 2000-12 period is in line with the rate exhibited during the last two decades. (This growth rate, which covers the 2000-12 period, including the 2001 recession, is slightly lower than the 3.0-percent growth rate posted over the 2002-12 projection period; the box on the next page compares the 2000-10 and 2002-12 BLS projections.) Productivity wends since 1995. One of the most fascinating and significant features of the current U.S. economy is the strength of both labor and multifactor productivity since 1995. Chart 1 shows the annual rate of growth of labor productivity between selected peak quarters of the U.S. economy. Included for comparison are the periods from 1990, quarter III, to 1995, quarter I, and from 1995, quarter I, to 2001, quarter I, the latter period being one of exceptional strength in productivity that has continued to this day. Between quarter III of 1990 and quarter I of 1995, labor productivity grew at an annual average rate of 1.5 percent, compared with an annual average growth rate of 2.3 percent between quarter I of 1995 and quarter I of 2001. Over the 2002-12 period, the Bureau projects an annual average growth rate of output per hour of 2.1 percent, just slightly lower than the rate of the 1995-2001 period.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Perhaps even more telling was the strength of labor productivity during the most recent recession. Chart 2 shows the annual average rate of labor productivity during each of the recessions since 1960. The strength of productivity that began in 1995 continued unabated during the most recent recession, setting the stage for continued strong growth in productivity over the 2002-12 period.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Industry trends

Output and employment by industry. Trends in overall labor productivity, while important, still tell only one part of the story. How these trends are reflected in the growth in output by industry and, in particular, between goods-producing and service-providing industries, affords an important insight into the sources of overall employment growth in the BLS projections. Table 1 compares goods-producing and service-providing sectors for the year 2002, based on the proportions of total output and total employment accounted for by each sector.

The measure of output reported in the table is nominal gross duplicated output, which includes output produced for intermediate sale to other firms and final output delivered to markets. (2) Nominal gross duplicated output has the closest connection to the amount of labor that industries will need to hire to achieve production goals, whether such output is for intermediate sale to another firm or for sale as a final market good.

As the table indicates, the goods-producing sector's share of gross duplicated output is substantially higher than its share of total nonfarm wage and salary employment, especially for manufacturing industries. In contrast, the service-providing sector's share of gross duplicated output, 67.1 percent, is smaller than its 82.0-percent share of employment. Two notable exceptions are the information and financial activities sectors, which both account for a larger share of output than employment. (3)

Given these differences between goods-producing and service-providing industries, it is not surprising that the Bureau projects that net change in nonfarm wage and salary employment over the 2002-12 period will be largely in the service-providing industries: 20.8 million (96.3 percent) out of a projected net employment gain of 21.6 million. Nor should it be surprising that goods-producing industries account for 22.8 percent of the projected increase in output, measured on a nominal gross duplicated basis, and only 3.7 percent of the net employment change over the same period. (See table 2.)

Do these figures mean that there will be very few job opportunities in goods-producing industries? Not at all. The reason is that the BLS projections are based on net employment change and do not reflect the underlying dynamic flows of hirings and separations that occur within industries. How much turnover is there by industry? The Bureau now calculates job turnover statistics by industry in its new Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Table 3 shows the breakdown of turnover by major NAICS industry group in September 2003, the latest month for which data were available at the time this article was written. In the private sector, 4.2 million individuals were hired during September 2003, representing 3.8 percent of private nonfarm payroll employment that month. Also, 4 million workers were separated from their jobs during September, accounting for 3.7 percent of employment. An examination of the industries listed in table 3 shows how dynamic U.S. labor markets are across industries.

Another measure of the dynamic nature of labor markets is the number of job openings that are created to replace workers who leave occupations. Hecker lists the number of job openings for each detailed occupation over the 2002-12 period, a figure that represents the hiring required both to meet net employment growth and to replace workers who leave each occupation. (4) As noted previously, the Bureau projects an overall level of job openings of 56.3 million jobs over the period, representing a net employment growth of 21.3 million and an additional 35 million job openings due to replacement needs.

While a principal and highly popular use of BLS projections is to offer guidance on which occupations are projected to grow the fastest or add the most jobs, the projected trends are closely tied to the underlying changes in industry output and employment levels. An industry that is projected to have a significant increase in the level or the rate of growth of its output can have a significant impact on the types of occupations that will be in demand over the next decade. One reason for this relationship has to do with the concentrations of particular occupations in specific industries. For example, 49 percent of registered nurses work in hospitals, and another 17 percent work in offices of physicians and in ambulatory health-care centers, including home health-care centers. The projected increases of 27 percent and 57 percent in the real output of hospitals and ambulatory health-care services, respectively, translates into 71 percent of the nearly 623,000 total projected increase in the employment of registered nurses.

Another important influence of industries on the occupational staffing mix results from changes in the technology of production--which can have significant impacts on the types of workers employed as new production technologies are adopted. In 1983, for example, the production of computer and office equipment required the services of nearly 100,000 precision production, craft, and repair workers and 7,000 computer engineers, scientists, and systems analysts. By 1998, as innovations in the production of computer and office equipment were introduced into this industry, the number of production workers had dropped to 68,000, and employment in computer-related occupations had grown to more than 51,000.

A number of other factors related to industry output and employment can have an important influence on the occupational staffing patterns observed in the U.S. economy: the discovery of new technologies and their integration into the production process; the influence of global competition; the different emphases placed by industries on research and development, marketing, and output customization; and the outsourcing of functions to firms in other domestic industries or abroad, among others.

Fast employment growth, high output growth

With the aforementioned multiple factors affecting industry output, are there ways of summarizing the likely impact of industry trends on occupational employment? One approach is to group industries on the basis of selected characteristics and examine the employment growth (or decline) that is projected for those industries over the next decade. Berman lists (1) the industries that are projected to have the fastest-growing and most rapidly decining employment growth, (5) (2) the industries with the fastest-growing and most rapidly decining output growth, (6) (3) the industries with the largest employment growth and declines, (7) and (4) the industries with the largest output growth and declines, (8) Another grouping that provides insight into employment and occupational staffing patterns is the set of industries that are projected to post relatively high rates of growth in both output and employment. Table 4 lists industries that are projected to have employment increases greater than 14.8 percent (the overall increase in employment projected for the 2002-12 period). The industries are listed in descending order of their projected output growth over the 2002-12 period.

The first row of the table shows that the Internet services, data processing, and other information services industry is projected to have the highest annual rate of change of real output over the projection period: 10.3 percent per year. This industry is expected to add 244,000 jobs, an increase of 46.2 percent, over the period. Twenty-one industries are projected to have real output growth rates that equal or exceed the overall annual average of 4.0 percent. The last two columns indicate that these industries together accounted for 14 percent of nonfarm wage and salary employment in 2002 and are projected to account for 32 percent of overall net employment growth over the projection period.

If the list of industries with fast employment growth is extended to include those with average annual output growth of 3 percent or more per year, 35 industries qualify. These industries account for 24 percent of nonfarm wage and salary employment in 2002 and 48 percent of their net employment growth over the 2002-12 period. Note that not all 35 industries are in the service-providing sector of the economy. Although goods-producing industries generally have greater output than employment gains, the list of 35 industries includes metalworking machinery manufacturing industries; forging and stamping industries; plastics product manufacturing industries; and architectural and structural metals manufacturing industries.

The 50 industries with average annual output growth of 2 percent or more per year and employment growth exceeding 14.8 percent account for 65 percent of nonfarm wage and salary growth over the projection period. Further, a total of 84 percent of employment growth is accounted for by all of the industries with projected net employment growth exceeding the overall average of 14.8 percent. This total of 58 industries accounted for 55 percent of employment in 2002, and each has a projected annual average growth rate of real output of at least 1 percent between 2002 and 2012.

Trends in labor supply

One of the most significant influences on both labor force growth and labor force participation rates in the last 50 years has been the aging of the baby-boom cohort. Indeed, one of the recurring themes that run through the four articles in this issue of the Review is the influence of the baby-boom generation on everything from consumer expenditures to housing, medical care, and retirement, to name just a few factors.

The baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964, were aged 38 through 56 in 2002, and will be aged 48 through 66 in 2012. In table 5, boldface is used to denote when the baby boomers reached (or will reach) various age groups between 1950 and 2010. One way to see the impact of this cohort is to compare the size of an age group before the arrival of the baby boomers with its size once the baby boomers have reached the indicated ages. For example, in 1970, the baby boomers were aged 6 to 24 years, and in that year, there were 48 million individuals aged 25 to 44. Twenty years later, with the baby boomers aged 26 to 44, the number of individuals in the 25-44 age group stood at 80.8 million, an increase of 68.3 percent.

Perhaps the aspect of the baby boomers that is generating the most interest at present is their potential impact on the remaining size of the labor supply as the boomers enter older age groups and begin to retire. According to Census Bureau population projections given in the table, by 2010, when baby boomers will be 46 to 64 years, the number of 55- to 64-year-olds will grow by more than 11 million compared with the number in 2000, an increase of 46 percent.

One question that naturally arises is whether the baby boomers have had a discernible impact on labor force participation rates. That is to say, as the baby boomers have aged, have their labor force participation rates differed significantly from the cohorts that came before them or the cohorts that followed them? Table 6 provides the answer. For men, the dominant feature is the declining participation rates among those aged 55 and older since 1950, a group that does not yet include the baby boomers. From an examination of the younger age groups listed in the table, it does not appear that the labor force participation rates of baby boomers differed significantly from those of similarly aged cohorts that came before or after.

The table also shows the remarkable rise in the labor force participation rotes for women since 1950, especially among the prime working-age groups from 25 to 54 years. In each case, the rising trend predates the arrival of female baby boomers. Although these women certainly contributed to the trend, the data do not support the idea that the rising labor force participation rates of women since 1950 were the result of the entry of the baby-boomer cohorts.

In Toossi's article on labor force projections, changes in the labor force levels of various age groups are decomposed into changes in the size of the population and changes in the labor force participation rates of each age group. Consistent with the findings just given, Toossi finds that changes in labor force levels of each age group are largely the result of changes in the size of the population in various age groups, rather than changes in their underlying labor force participation rates.

Labor shortages

There is a growing interest in the potential impact of the upcoming retirement of baby boomers--specifically, the prospect of a general shortage of workers and its effects on specific occupational labor markets. Table 7 gives the actual and expected sizes of the labor force by age group between 1950 and 2050, by decade, based on previously published research by Toossi. (9) The arrival on the economic scene and the subsequent aging of the baby boomers has had a significant impact on labor force growth rates. Between 1950 and 2000, the civilian labor force grew by 79 million, from 62.2 million to 140.9 million, an increase of 1.6 percent per year. The Bureau projects that, between 2000 and 2010, labor force growth will slow to 1.1 percent per year, and after the retirement of the baby boomers, between 2010 and 2020, labor force growth will slow to 0.4 percent per year. Overall, the civilian labor force is expected to grow by 51 million between 2000 and 2050, a slowdown to a 0.6-percent increase per year.

Will these increases in the size of the labor force be too small to meet the needs of the U.S. economy? Will there be a general shortage of workers, so that many of the jobs needed to produce the level of output demanded by the economy (and by U.S. trading partners in the form of exports) will go unfilled? To what extent do the projections account for this possibility? Consider the latter question first. The BLS projections, as mentioned earlier, assume a labor market that clears. The Bureau does not base its estimates of changes in total, industry, or occupational employment on labor markets that have either a shortage or a surplus of workers. Despite this assumption, numerous analyses have been produced by researchers in past years using BLS employment projections as a basis for measuring what is believed to be evidence of a future shortage of workers in the U.S. economy.

One of the most common ways in which BLS numbers are used to project a "coming shortage" is by asserting that the difference between the projected labor force level and the projected employment count represents a shortage of workers. For example, the Bureau projects a labor force of 162.3 million individuals in 2012. At the same time, the Bureau expects that the 2012 economy will require that 165.3 million jobs be filled. Does this difference imply a shortage of 3.0 million workers come 2012? Absolutely not--but if not, then what accounts for the difference? First, BLS projections of occupational employment are based on the number of jobs that the economy is expected to require. However, because individuals can and do hold more than one job, the count of workers will most certainly be less than the number of jobs. Second, and more technically, the data the Bureau uses for projecting industry employment are based on the Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts payroll jobs at establishments. The data the Bureau uses to project labor force levels, by contrast, are based on the CPS, a household survey yielding estimates of the number of individuals in the labor force. Besides multiple jobholding, then, there are statistical differences between these two series that contribute to the difference between the job count and the count of individual employees in BLS projections.

Essentially, the BLS projections are based on an examination of the labor required to produce projected levels of output by industry. How industries manage their human resource requirements is influenced by a great many factors: the available labor supply (including immigration), the skill levels of prospective jobseekers, the use of technology in the production process, the required capital-labor ratio consistent with the technology used for production, how work is organized, the use of employees from the personnel supply services industry, the hiring of self-employed contractors, the use of flextime and flexiplace, the use of overtime or mandatory shift coverage, and the hiring of offshore labor in foreign countries, among others. Although the projections do not attempt to explicitly model these various possible management options that firms may exercise, a perspective on their potential importance is certainly necessary to consider in building any set of projections and, in particular, detailed descriptions of the outlook for occupations. The next two subsections examine two areas of growing interest in assessing the reaction of firms to the available qualified labor supply: immigration and the outsourcing of the production of goods and services to establishments based in foreign countries.

The potential role of immigration in increasing the available supply of labor. Rising trends in immigration levels to the United States, especially over the last decade, are one source of labor for occupations in which it may be increasingly difficult to find qualified workers. The following tabulation shows the levels and rates of immigration to the Nation, by decade, since 1901, as compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau:
 Number of immigrants Rate per thousand
 Period entering United States U.S. population

1901-10 8,795,000 10.4
1911-20 5,736,000 5.7
1921-30 4,107,000 3.5
1931-40 528,000 .4
1941-50 1,035,000 .7
1951-60 2,515,000 1.5
1961-70 3,322,000 1.7
1971-80 4,493,000 2.1
1981-90 7,338,000 3.1
1991-98 7,605,000 3.6


The population projections from the Census Bureau that are used as the basis for BLS labor force projections include an estimate of the level of legal immigration to the United States over the next decade. In its most recent population projections, the Census Bureau estimates annual immigration levels of 1.1 million from 2000 to 2005, a decline to 900,000 per year from 2006 to 2010, and an increase to 1.3 million annually from 2011 to 2012.

Much uncertainty accompanies any discussion of the role of immigration in addressing pressures on labor markets to find qualified workers. Changes in immigration policy, the occupational and educational profiles of new immigrants, and the regional impacts of where immigrants choose to live are but a few of the somewhat speculative areas that make assessing this potential problematic. To the extent that past serves as prologue, however, the preceding tabulation does suggest that there will be substantial levels of immigration into the United States over the next decade.

What kinds of occupations do recent immigrants enter? Using data from the CPS for the period 2000-02, table 8 lists occupational employment distributions for immigrant groups based on the number of years since their immigration into the Nation, compared with the distribution for all U.S. employees. Individuals who have immigrated within the last 5 years have a greater likelihood than the overall population of U.S. workers of being in food preparation and serving related occupations, production occupations, and construction trades. They also have a greater likelihood of being in computer and mathematical occupations. As the number of years since immigration increases, the occupational distribution of immigrants begins to broadly resemble the overall occupational distribution, although immigrants still have a greater likelihood of being in production and food-related occupations, compared with all U.S. employees.

The potential role of hiring offshore employees. (10) One of the areas of increasing interest in U.S. labor markets is the use of offshore employees as part of the production process for U.S. firms. Outsourcing work to foreign countries--that is, purchasing services formerly produced in the United States from establishments in other countries--has been widely cited in recent months as having a growing impact on U.S. employment. The exact magnitude of outsourcing is not known, owing to the lack of specific, systematic data on the use of foreign employment to produce outsourced goods and services. Outsourcing is a trend that has been going on for quite some time. The current interest in it appears to reflect a transition from the importation of goods to the direct purchase of foreign-produced services, a phenomenon that has expanded with the development of the Internet and its dissolution of temporal and spatial barriers to the free flow of services.

What is the potential impact of this transition? Domestic industries have already outsourced such functions as accounting, marketing, and advertising to other domestic industries that both specialize in these services and produce them more cheaply. With outsourcing, a purchase of a service from another industry replaces all the material and labor inputs that the purchasing industry previously used internally in order to create that service. The total output of the industry now buying the service from an outside source is somewhat lower, reflecting the inherent cost-efficiency of the industry producing the service. Some of the purchasing industry's employment is shifted to the producing industry, while some is freed up for other jobs in the economy. The productivity of the remaining employees in the purchasing industry now appears to be somewhat higher. If the outsourcing is provided by a foreign establishment, the output of the purchasing industry is again little affected. The jobs outsourced, however, are no longer counted in U.S. employment totals, and because imports are removed in total from the GDP accounts, GDP is lower.

Foreign outsourcing influences the projections through its impact on the industry distribution of GDP. As industries import more foreign services, the trend toward higher importation will be reflected in the relative declines in the output and employment of the affected industries over time. Because the Bureau bases its industry employment projections largely on trend analyses of detailed establishment-based time series, the effects of the recent past have been implicitly addressed to the extent that the data used have already begun to reflect the situation. More explicitly, expert review of the model-based projections by BLS occupational employment analysts brings to bear subjective, but current, knowledge of industry employment practices. Studies of past outsourcing trends and careful detailing of expectations for continued outsourcing in the future will ensure that foreign outsourcing is carefully accounted for in future projections prepared by the Bureau.

Labor shortages by occupation. The fact that BLS projections are based on the assumption of a labor market in balance does not mean that employers will not experience significant difficulties in finding and hiring workers in labor markets for individual occupations. One bellwether indicator of the relative difficulties that arise in hiring sufficient supplies of workers in any occupation is whether any trends show a consistent pattern of rising wages and rising employment, suggesting that the demand for workers in the occupation in question is increasing faster than the supply. Such a situation may represent a shortage, which is theoretically consistent with the persistent existence of vacancies despite rising wage offers to fill the vacant jobs." Alternatively, the situation may be consistent simply with a market that is maintaining equilibrium by paying higher wages. In either case, depending on the degree of mismatch between demand and supply, especially by geographic area, there may be significant difficulties in finding workers in particular occupations.

Consider, for example, the employment and wage trends for registered nurses, an occupation often cited as having a shortage of workers. Between 1994 and 2000, a period of significant economic expansion, the net employment of usual full-time registered nurses increased by 8.9 percent, and their real wages declined by 0.2 percent, compared with an increase in real weekly wages of 6.3 percent for U.S. workers as a whole. In contrast, since 2000, despite the recession, there has been strong growth in both employment (12.5 percent) and real wages (5.9 percent) of registered nurses, suggestive of increased recent difficulties in finding adequate supplies of workers in that occupational group.

What other evidence can be gathered to develop a profile of how relatively easy or difficult it has been in recent years to find and hire registered nurses or, for that matter, workers in any other occupation--and how might that evidence be used to track similar difficulties in the future? One potentially important indicator is to calculate the percentage of an occupation that is in the 55-years-and-older age range--and, therefore, is theoretically ready to retire over the next decade. On the basis of 2002 annual averages, 13.4 percent of registered nurses in this country are aged 55 and older. The national average across all occupations is 13.9 percent.

Table 9 shows the occupations that have at least 20 percent of their employees aged 55 and older and that are projected to have net employment increases larger than the overall national average of 14.8 percent. For these occupations, the table suggests that hiring, if only for replacement purposes, is going to be fairly brisk--and the need to expand total employment levels will only serve to accentuate the hiring challenge.

Are there other pieces of evidence? The general problem with addressing the question whether the U.S. labor market will have a shortage of workers in specific occupations over the next 10 years is the difficulty of projecting, for each detailed occupation, the dynamic labor market responses to shortage conditions. Employers adapt to difficult hiring markets in a variety of ways: modifying the duties of a job, changing the capital-labor ratio, imposing mandatory shift coverage, and hiring contract employees, immigrants, or offshore labor in foreign countries, among other approaches. Perhaps the best that can be done is to examine as many of these indicators as possible and develop a profile of how the labor market is responding to the changes in each occupation's relative demand for, and supply of, workers.

High-paying, fast-growing occupations

While it is certainly a challenge to project future labor market shortages, another question of abiding interest is what guidance the BLS projections provide with regard to what many refer to as "hot jobs" in the U.S. economy? In his article on occupational employment, Hecker discusses the fastest-growing and largest-growing occupations. (12) Table 10 on pages 17-21 of the current article lists occupations that are expected to grow faster than the overall average and that are known to be relatively high paying in the current economy. Table 10 also shows both the cumulative percentage of 2002 employment and the cumulative percentage of projected employment growth between 2002 and 2012 that is accounted for by these fast-growing, high-paying occupations. The table uses the 2002 Occupational Employment Survey to identify "high-paying" occupations, defining them as any occupation whose mean annual earnings are in the top half of the overall distribution of earnings. Concomitantly, "fast-growing" occupations are defined as occupations that are projected to grow faster than 14.8 percent (again, the national average for all occupations).

A number of interesting aspects of the occupations listed in table 10 readily present themselves. For one, the list is not the exclusive domain of the fast-growing health- or computer-related occupations--although there are obviously a great many such occupations on the list. For example, a number of management-, education-, sales-, art-, architecture-, design-, and accounting-related occupations are listed. Nor does the list exclude occupations in which a significant percentage of employees are not college graduates. For example, electricians; plumbers, pipe-fitters, and steamfitters; structural iron and steel workers; reinforcing iron and rebar workers; tapers; tile and marble setters; sheet metal workers; and heating, air-conditioning, and refrigerator mechanics and installers appear on the list. Overall, the occupations listed in the table accounted for 31.2 percent of employment in 2002 and are projected to account for 51 percent of the expected net gain in employment over the 2002-12 period.

The impact of education and training. As the discussion of table 10 indicated, there are a number of relatively high-paying, high-growth occupations in which the most significant source of education or training usually is not associated with the jobholder's having obtained a 4-year college degree. An upcoming BLS publication lists, for each occupation, the most significant source of education and training generally required by employers. (13) The same publication also gives the percentages of employees in each occupation that have a high-school degree or less, some college, or a college degree or higher. These descriptions are intended to provide general guidance, and, as a reading of the more detailed descriptions of occupations in the BLS 2004-2005 Occupational Outlook Handbook indicates, there is often a variety of educational or training pathways that enable a worker to become skilled in an occupation.

In the last two decades, several important trends in educational attainment have arisen that can have a significant impact on occupational career choices. One of these trends is that, since the late 1970s, average premiums paid by the labor markets to those with higher levels of education have increased. Certainly, there are a number of important factors besides earnings that help to determine the career choices made by individuals. However, it is the growing distance, on average, between those with more education, compared with those with less, that speaks to a general preference on the part of employers to hire those with skills associated with higher levels of education. As shown in table 11, in 2000, on average, full-time wage and salary workers with a bachelor's degree or higher had earnings that were nearly twice those of high school graduates. This finding holds for both men and women.

Between 1994 and 2000, the supply of male college graduates increased by more than 20 percent and their real earnings rose by nearly 5 percent. (See table 11.) This willingness of the market to absorb and reward such a substantial increase in the labor supply of men who have graduated from college is an indicator of the continued relative increase in the demand for workers with more education. Earnings of men with some college (including those with associate's degrees) increased by 2.4 percent, and the employment of the group grew by 13 percent. Real earnings of female college graduates rose by 4 percent, and their employment increased by nearly 30 percent. Women with some college saw their real earnings remain steady, while their employment increased by 16 percent.

THIS ISSUE OF THE MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW PRESENTS PROJECTIONS of industry and occupational employment trends. These projections form the basis for providing career advice to individuals entering the job market, changing careers, or making further educational and training choices. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics must judge its work against an uncertain future, a hallmark of the agency's projections is that the assumptions and model-based findings on which they are grounded are made explicit. Further, while much is known in terms of trends in economic series to date, past is not always prologue, and care must always be taken whenever projections are involved. With these points in mind, the reader will be better able to appraise and utilize the carefully thought-out content of the articles presented in this issue of the Review.
Table 1. Output (1) and nonfarm wage and salary employment by mayor
industry division, 2002 (2)

 Levels

 Industry Output Employment
 (thousands)

 Total $18,409.6 131,063
Goods producing, excluding
 agriculture 4,904.5 22,550
 Mining 158.8 512
 Construction 865.5 6,732
 Manufacturing 3,880.3 15,307
Service providing 12,352.2 108,513
 Utilities 302.4 600
 Wholesale trade 951.0 5,641
 Retail trade 1,064.9 15,047
 Transportation and warehousing 685.4 4,205
 Information 965.3 3,420
 Financial activities 2,497.9 7,843
 Professional and business services 2,089.2 16,010
 Education and health services 1,289.7 16,184
 Leisure and hospitality 687.9 11,969
 Other services 444.1 6,105
 Federal Government 376.4 2,767
 State and local government 998.0 18,722

 Shares

 Industry Output Employment

 Total 100.0 100.0
Goods producing, excluding
 agriculture 26.6 17.2
 Mining .9 .4
 Construction 4.7 5.1
 Manufacturing 21.1 11.7
Service providing 67.1 82.8
 Utilities 1.6 .5
 Wholesale trade 5.2 4.3
 Retail trade 5.8 11.5
 Transportation and warehousing 3.7 3.2
 Information 5.2 2.6
 Financial activities 13.6 6.0
 Professional and business services 11.3 12.2
 Education and health services 7.0 12.3
 Leisure and hospitality 3.7 9.1
 Other services 2.4 4.7
 Federal Government 2.0 2.1
 State and local government 5.4 14.3

(1) Gross duplicated output, measured in nominal dollars.

(2) Industry output levels do not add to totals, due to the
exclusion of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries,
as well as special industries and a residual category.

Table 2. Output (1) and nonfarm wage and salary employment by major
industry division, 2002 and 2012 (2)

 2002 Levels

 Industry Output Employment
 (thousands)

 Total $18,409.6 131,063
Goods producing, excluding agriculture 4,904.5 22,550
 Mining 158.8 512
 Construction 865.5 6,732
 Manufacturing 3,880.3 15,307
Service providing 12,352.2 108,513
 Utilities 302.4 600
 Wholesale trade 951.0 5,641
 Retail trade 1,064.9 15,047
 Transportation and warehousing 685.4 4,205
 Information 965.3 3,420
 Financial activities 2,497.9 7,843
 Professional and business services 2,034.6 16,010
 Education and health services 1,289.7 16,184
 Leisure and hospitality 687.9 11,969
 Other services 444.1 6,105
 Federal Government 376.4 2,767
 State and local government 998.0 18,722

 2012 Levels

 Industry Output Employment
 (thousands)

 Total $31,599.4 152,690
Goods producing, excluding agriculture 7,917.6 23,346
 Mining 208.0 451
 Construction 1,204.9 7,745
 Manufacturing 6,504.7 15,149
Service providing 22,360.8 129,344
 Utilities 460.0 565
 Wholesale trade 1,898.2 6,279
 Retail trade 1,993.9 17,129
 Transportation and warehousing 1,183.3 5,120
 Information 1,981.0 4,052
 Financial activities 4,315.4 8,806
 Professional and business services 4,136.8 20,876
 Education and health services 2,455.0 21,329
 Leisure and hospitality 1,160.8 14,104
 Other services 739.7 7,065
 Federal Government 542.9 2,779
 State and local government 1,493.7 21,240

 Share of change between
 2002 and 2012

 Industry Output Employment

 Total 100.0 100.0
Goods producing, excluding agriculture 22.8 3.7
 Mining .4 -.3
 Construction 2.6 4.7
 Manufacturing 19.9 -.7
Service providing 75.9 96.3
 Utilities 1.2 -.2
 Wholesale trade 7.2 3.0
 Retail trade 7.0 9.6
 Transportation and warehousing 3.8 4.2
 Information 7.7 2.9
 Financial activities 13.8 4.5
 Professional and business services 15.3 22.5
 Education and health services 8.8 23.8
 Leisure and hospitality 3.6 9.9
 Other services 2.2 4.4
 Federal Government 1.3 .1
 State and local government 3.8 11.6

(1) Gross duplicated output, measured in nominal dollars.

(2) Industry output levels do not add to totals, due to the
exclusion of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries,
as well as special industries and a residual category.

Table 3. Annual average hiring rates and levels, and
separations rates and levels, by industry, September 2003

 Industry Hiring rate Hiring level
 (thousands)

 Total 3.5 4,575
Total private 3.8 4,177
Natural resources and mining 2.4 14
Construction 5.7 403
Manufacturing 2.4 353
 Durable goods 2.4 218
 Nondurable goods 2.4 136
Trade, transportation, and utilities 4.0 1,012
 Wholesale trade 3.0 164
 Retail trade 4.6 680
 Transportation, warehousing, and
 utilities 3.5 168
Information 1.9 61
Financial activities 2.4 194
 Finance and insurance 2.1 122
 Real estate and rental and leasing 3.5 73
Professional and business services 3.9 627
Education and health services 3.6 591
 Educational services 4.6 122
 Health care and social assistance 3.4 469
Leisure and hospitality 5.9 725
 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 4.6 84
 Accommodation and food services 6.1 641
Other services 3.7 197
Government 1.9 399
 Federal 1.4 38
 State and local 2.0 361

 Industry Separation Separation
 rate level
 (thousands)

 Total 3.3 4,320
Total private 3.7 4,002
Natural resources and mining 3.2 18
Construction 6.3 446
Manufacturing 2.3 342
 Durable goods 2.2 200
 Nondurable goods 2.5 142
Trade, transportation, and utilities 3.4 860
 Wholesale trade 2.6 145
 Retail trade 4.1 605
 Transportation, warehousing, and
 utilities 2.3 109
Information 2.0 66
Financial activities 2.5 197
 Finance and insurance 1.9 113
 Real estate and rental and leasing 4.0 83
Professional and business services 3.4 551
Education and health services 2.7 437
 Educational services 1.9 49
 Health care and social assistance 2.8 387
Leisure and hospitality 7.2 888
 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 11.6 211
 Accommodation and food services 6.5 677
Other services 3.8 199
Government 1.5 318
 Federal 1.4 38
 State and local 1.5 280

SOURCE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.

Table 4. Industries with relatively fast employment growth, (1) ranked
by projected annual growth rate of output, 2002-12

 Growth
 rate Employment,
 Industry of output 2000
 per year, (thousands)
 2002-12

Internet services, data processing, and
 other information services 10.3 529
Computer systems design and related
 services 9.0 1,163
Software publishers 8.4 256
Motion picture and sound recording
 Industries 6.7 387
Scientific research and development
 and other professional, scientific,
 and technical services 5.5 1,026
Other general purpose machinery
 manufacturing 5.2 288
Advertising and related services 5.2 442
Employment services 5.1 3,249
Metalworking machinery manufacturing 4.9 217
Religious, grantmaking and giving
 services, and social advocacy
 organizations 4.9 1,944
Ambulatory health care services except
 offices of health practitioners 4.6 1,444
Forging and stamping 4.5 114
Amusement, gambling, and recreation
 industries 4.2 1,308
Office administrative and facilities
 support services 4.2 390
Securities, commodity contracts, and
 other financial investments and
 related activities 4.2 801
Individual, family, community, and
 vocational rehabilitation services 4.1 1,269
Commercial and industrial equipment
 (except automotive and electronic)
 repair and maintenance 4.1 156
Traveler accommodation 4.1 1,726
Management, scientific, and technical
 consulting services 4.1 732
Plastics product manufacturing 4.1 668
Child day care services 4.0 734
Commercial and industrial machinery
 and equipment rental and leasing 3.9 102
Architectural and structural metals
 manufacturing 3.9 400
Truck transportation and couriers
 and messengers 3.8 1,897
Business support and investigation
 and security services and support
 services, n.e.c. (2) 3.7 1,772
Specialized design services 3.6 123
Offices of health practitioners 3.5 3,190
Pharmaceutical and medicine
 manufacturing 3.5 293
Other wood product manufacturing 3.4 320
Community care facilities for the
 elderly and residential care
 facilities, n.e.c. (2) 3.4 695
Other personal services 3.3 219
Nondepository credit intermediation and
 related support activities, funds,
 trust, and lessors of nonfinancial
 intangibles 3.2 1,058
RV parks, recreational camps, and
 rooming and boarding houses 3.2 53
Services to buildings and dwellings 3.1 1,597
Waste management and remediation
 services 3.0 317
Automotive repair and maintenance 2.9 897
Museums, historical sites, and similar
 institutions 2.7 113
Consumer goods rental and general rental
 centers 2.7 353
Water, sewage, and other systems 2.7 49
Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood
 product manufacturing 2.6 116
Scenic and sightseeing transportation
 and support activities for
 transportation 2.6 553
Personal care services 2.6 523
Cement and concrete product
 manufacturing 2.5 230
Hospitals 2.4 4,153
Food services and drinking places 2.4 8,412
Nursing care and residential mental
 health facilities 2.4 2,048
Performing arts companies, promoters,
 agents, managers, and independent 2.3 240
 artists 2.2 93
Accounting, tax preparation,
 bookkeeping, and payroll services 2.1 867
Animal slaughtering and processing 2.0 520
Cable and other subscription programming
 and program distribution 1.9 221
Spectator sports 1.9 118
Educational services 1.8 2,651
Construction 1.7 6,732
State and local government education 1.5 9,876
Civic, social, business, and similar
 organizations 1.5 917
Legal services 1.3 1,112
Transit and ground passenger
 transportation 1.2 372

 Change in
 employment
 Employment,
 2012
 Industry (thousands) Number
 (thousands)

Internet services, data processing, and 773 244
 other information services
Computer systems design and related 1,798 635
 services 430 174
Software publishers
Motion picture and sound recording 503 116
 Industries
Scientific research and development
 and other professional, scientific, 1,241 215
 and technical services
Other general purpose machinery 339 51
 manufacturing 525 84
Advertising and related services 5,012 1,764
Employment services 251 34
Metalworking machinery manufacturing
Religious, grantmaking and giving
 services, and social advocacy 2,372 428
 organizations
Ambulatory health care services except 2,113 670
 offices of health practitioners 132 18
Forging and stamping
Amusement, gambling, and recreation 1,717 410
 industries
Office administrative and facilities 508 117
 support services
Securities, commodity contracts, and
 other financial investments and 925 124
 related activities
Individual, family, community, and 1,867 597
 vocational rehabilitation services
Commercial and industrial equipment
 (except automotive and electronic) 185 29
 repair and maintenance 2,019 293
Traveler accommodation
Management, scientific, and technical 1,137 406
 consulting services 797 128
Plastics product manufacturing 1,050 316
Child day care services
Commercial and industrial machinery 143 41
 and equipment rental and leasing
Architectural and structural metals 478 77
 manufacturing
Truck transportation and couriers 2,404 507
 and messengers
Business support and investigation
 and security services and support 2,261 489
 services, n.e.c. (2) 161 38
Specialized design services 4,419 1,229
Offices of health practitioners
Pharmaceutical and medicine 361 68
 manufacturing 386 67
Other wood product manufacturing
Community care facilities for the
 elderly and residential care 1,078 382
 facilities, n.e.c. (2) 270 51
Other personal services
Nondepository credit intermediation and
 related support activities, funds,
 trust, and lessors of nonfinancial 1,253 196
 intangibles
RV parks, recreational camps, and 62 8
 rooming and boarding houses 1,980 383
Services to buildings and dwellings
Waste management and remediation 404 87
 services 1,046 149
Automotive repair and maintenance
Museums, historical sites, and similar 136 24
 institutions
Consumer goods rental and general rental 484 131
 centers 71 23
Water, sewage, and other systems
Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood 138 21
 product manufacturing
Scenic and sightseeing transportation
 and support activities for 652 100
 transportation 667 144
Personal care services
Cement and concrete product 278 48
 manufacturing 4,785 632
Hospitals 9,749 1,337
Food services and drinking places
Nursing care and residential mental 2,607 559
 health facilities
Performing arts companies, promoters, 277 37
 agents, managers, and independent 108 14
 artists
Accounting, tax preparation, 1,082 215
 bookkeeping, and payroll services 601 80
Animal slaughtering and processing
Cable and other subscription programming 300 79
 and program distribution 144 26
Spectator sports 3,410 759
Educational services 7,745 1,014
Construction 11,606 1,730
State and local government education
Civic, social, business, and similar 1,088 172
 organizations 1,330 218
Legal services
Transit and ground passenger 488 116
 transportation

 Change in Cumulative
 employment percentage
 Industry of total 2002
 Percent employment

Internet services, data processing, and
 other information services 46.2 0.4
Computer systems design and related
 services 54.6 1.3
Software publishers 67.9 1.5
Motion picture and sound recording
 Industries 30.0 1.8
Scientific research and development
 and other professional, scientific,
 and technical services 21.0 2.6
Other general purpose machinery
 manufacturing 17.7 2.8
Advertising and related services 18.9 3.1
Employment services 54.3 5.6
Metalworking machinery manufacturing 15.5 5.8
Religious, grantmaking and giving
 services, and social advocacy
 organizations 22.0 7.2
Ambulatory health care services except
 offices of health practitioners 46.4 8.4
Forging and stamping 16.2 8.4
Amusement, gambling, and recreation
 industries 31.3 9.4
Office administrative and facilities
 support services 30.1 9.7
Securities, commodity contracts, and
 other financial investments and
 related activities 15.5 10.3
Individual, family, community, and
 vocational rehabilitation services 47.1 11.3
Commercial and industrial equipment
 (except automotive and electronic)
 repair and maintenance 18.7 11.4
Traveler accommodation 17.0 12.7
Management, scientific, and technical
 consulting services 55.4 13.3
Plastics product manufacturing 19.2 13.8
Child day care services 43.1 14.4
Commercial and industrial machinery
 and equipment rental and leasing 39.7 14.5
Architectural and structural metals
 manufacturing 19.3 14.8
Truck transportation and couriers
 and messengers 26.7 16.2
Business support and investigation
 and security services and support
 services, n.e.c. (2) 27.6 17.6
Specialized design services 30.8 17.7
Offices of health practitioners 38.5 20.1
Pharmaceutical and medicine
 manufacturing 23.2 20.3
Other wood product manufacturing 20.9 20.6
Community care facilities for the
 elderly and residential care
 facilities, n.e.c. (2) 55.0 21.1
Other personal services 23.2 21.3
Nondepository credit intermediation and
 related support activities, funds,
 trust, and lessors of nonfinancial
 intangibles 18.5 22.1
RV parks, recreational camps, and
 rooming and boarding houses 15.5 22.1
Services to buildings and dwellings 24.0 23.3
Waste management and remediation
 services 27.5 23.6
Automotive repair and maintenance 16.7 24.2
Museums, historical sites, and similar
 institutions 21.2 24.3
Consumer goods rental and general rental
 centers 37.2 24.6
Water, sewage, and other systems 46.4 24.6
Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood
 product manufacturing 18.4 24.7
Scenic and sightseeing transportation
 and support activities for
 transportation 18.0 25.1
Personal care services 27.6 25.5
Cement and concrete product
 manufacturing 20.9 25.7
Hospitals 15.2 28.9
Food services and drinking places 15.9 35.3
Nursing care and residential mental
 health facilities 27.3 36.9
Performing arts companies, promoters,
 agents, managers, and independent 15.5 37.1
 artists 15.2 37.1
Accounting, tax preparation,
 bookkeeping, and payroll services 24.8 37.8
Animal slaughtering and processing 15.4 38.2
Cable and other subscription programming
 and program distribution 35.7 38.4
Spectator sports 22.3 38.4
Educational services 28.6 40.5
Construction 15.1 45.6
State and local government education 17.5 53.1
Civic, social, business, and similar
 organizations 18.7 53.8
Legal services 19.6 54.7
Transit and ground passenger
 transportation 31.3 55.0

 Cumulative
 percentage of
 total projected
 Industry employment
 change,
 2002-12

Internet services, data processing, and
 other information services 1.1
Computer systems design and related
 services 4.1
Software publishers 4.9
Motion picture and sound recording
 Industries 5.4
Scientific research and development
 and other professional, scientific,
 and technical services 6.4
Other general purpose machinery
 manufacturing 6.6
Advertising and related services 7.0
Employment services 15.2
Metalworking machinery manufacturing 15.3
Religious, grantmaking and giving
 services, and social advocacy
 organizations 17.3
Ambulatory health care services except
 offices of health practitioners 20.4
Forging and stamping 20.5
Amusement, gambling, and recreation
 industries 22.4
Office administrative and facilities
 support services 22.9
Securities, commodity contracts, and
 other financial investments and
 related activities 23.5
Individual, family, community, and
 vocational rehabilitation services 26.3
Commercial and industrial equipment
 (except automotive and electronic)
 repair and maintenance 26.4
Traveler accommodation 27.8
Management, scientific, and technical
 consulting services 29.6
Plastics product manufacturing 30.2
Child day care services 31.7
Commercial and industrial machinery
 and equipment rental and leasing 31.9
Architectural and structural metals
 manufacturing 32.2
Truck transportation and couriers
 and messengers 34.6
Business support and investigation
 and security services and support
 services, n.e.c. (2) 36.8
Specialized design services 37.0
Offices of health practitioners 42.7
Pharmaceutical and medicine
 manufacturing 43.0
Other wood product manufacturing 43.3
Community care facilities for the
 elderly and residential care
 facilities, n.e.c. (2) 45.1
Other personal services 45.3
Nondepository credit intermediation and
 related support activities, funds,
 trust, and lessors of nonfinancial
 intangibles 46.2
RV parks, recreational camps, and
 rooming and boarding houses 46.3
Services to buildings and dwellings 48.0
Waste management and remediation
 services 48.4
Automotive repair and maintenance 49.1
Museums, historical sites, and similar
 institutions 49.2
Consumer goods rental and general rental
 centers 49.8
Water, sewage, and other systems 49.9
Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood
 product manufacturing 50.0
Scenic and sightseeing transportation
 and support activities for
 transportation 50.5
Personal care services 51.2
Cement and concrete product
 manufacturing 51.4
Hospitals 54.3
Food services and drinking places 60.5
Nursing care and residential mental
 health facilities 63.1
Performing arts companies, promoters,
 agents, managers, and independent 63.3
 artists 63.3
Accounting, tax preparation,
 bookkeeping, and payroll services 64.3
Animal slaughtering and processing 64.7
Cable and other subscription programming
 and program distribution 65.0
Spectator sports 65.2
Educational services 68.7
Construction 73.4
State and local government education 81.4
Civic, social, business, and similar
 organizations 82.2
Legal services 83.2
Transit and ground passenger
 transportation 83.7

(1) Fast employment growth is defined as a projected percentage in
employment greater than 14.8 percent, the overall average for the
2002-12 projection period.

(2) n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

Table 5. Ages of baby boomers and the populations of various age
groups in the United States, 1950-2010

 Ages Age Group
Year of
 baby 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44
 boomers

1950 0-4 40,482,524 22,098,426 23,759,267 21,450,359
1960 0-14 55,786,173 24,020,004 22,818,310 24,081,352
1970 6-24 57,900,052 35,441,369 24,907,429 23,087,805
1980 16-34 51,290,339 42,486,828 37,081,839 25,634,710
1990 26-44 53,567,871 36,774,327 43,175,932 37,578,903
2000 36-54 60,253,375 39,183,891 39,891,724 45,148,527
2010 46-64 59,444,392 42,818,900 38,851,057 39,442,358

 Age Group

Year
 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 and older

1950 17,342,653 13,294,595 8,414,885 3,277,751 576,901
1960 20,485,439 15,572,317 10,996,842 4,633,486 929,252
1970 23,219,957 18,589,812 12,435,456 6,119,145 1,501,901
1980 22,799,787 21,702,875 15,580,605 7,728,755 2,240,067
1990 25,223,086 21,147,923 18,106,558 10,055,108 2,240,067
2000 37,677,952 24,274,684 18,390,986 12,361,180 4,239,587
2010 44,160,748 35,429,393 21,154,241 12,775,045 5,785,840

NOTE: Boldface denotes when the baby boomers reached or will reach the
indicated age group.

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.

Table 6. Ages of baby boomers and labor force participation rates of
various age groups in the United States, 1950-2000

 Age group
Year Ages of
 baby
 boomers 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and
 older
Total

1950 0-4 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.66 0.57 0.27
1960 0-14 .56 .65 .69 .72 .61 .21
1970 6-24 .60 .70 .73 .74 .62 .17
1980 16-34 .68 .80 .80 .75 .56 .13
1990 36-44 .67 .84 .85 .81 .56 .12
2000 36-54 .66 .85 .85 .83 .59 .13

Men

1950 0-4 .77 .96 .98 .96 .87 .46
1960 0-14 .72 .98 .98 .96 .87 .33
1970 6-24 .69 .96 .97 .94 .83 .27
1980 16-34 .74 .95 .96 .91 .72 .19
1990 36-44 .72 .94 .94 .91 .68 .16
2000 36-54 .69 .93 .93 .89 .67 .18

Women

1950 0-4 .44 .34 .39 .38 .27 .10
1960 0-14 .43 .36 .43 .50 .37 .11
1970 6-24 .51 .45 .51 .54 .43 .10
1980 16-34 .62 .66 .66 .60 .41 .08
1990 36-44 .63 .73 .76 .71 .45 .09
2000 36-54 .63 .76 .77 .77 .52 .09

NOTE: Boldface denotes when the baby boomers reached or will
reach the indicated age group.

Table 7. Actual and projected civilian labor force levels
and growth rates per year, 1950-2050

 Change

Year Level Percent
 Number per year
Actual

1950 62,208 ... ...
1960 69,628 7,420 1.1
1970 82,771 13,143 1.7
1980 106,940 24,169 2.6
1990 125,840 18,900 1.6
2000 140,863 15,023 1.1

Projected

2010 157,721 16,858 1.1
2020 164,681 6,960 .4
2030 170,090 5,409 .3
2040 180,517 10,427 .6
2050 191,825 11,308 .6

Summary

1950 62,208 ... ...
2000 140,863 78,655 1.6
2050 191,825 50,962 .6

Table 8. Percentage distribution of occupations by Immigration
status, 2000-02

 Occupation All employees Did not Immigrated
 Immigrate 1-5 years
 ago

Architectural and engineering
 occupations 2.1 2.1 2.2
Arts, design, entertainment,
 sports, and media occupations 2.0 2.0 1.6
Business and financial occupations 3.9 4.1 1.7
Community and social service
 occupations 1.5 1.6 .5
Computer and mathematical
 occupations 2.4 2.2 5.4
Construction trades 5.6 5.2 10.7
Education, training, and library
 occupations 5.4 5.8 3.2
Extraction workers .1 .1 .0
Farming, fishing, and forestry
 occupations .8 .6 3.1
Food preparation and serving
 related occupations 8.6 7.5 20.4
Healthcare practicitioners and
 technical occupations 4.5 4.5 2.3
Healthcare support occupations 1.9 1.8 1.6
Installation, maintenance, and
 repair workers 3.5 3.5 2.2
Legal occupations 1.1 1.2 .3
Life, physical, and social science
 occupations .9 .9 1.5
Management occupations 10.6 11.2 4.7
Office and administrative support
 occupations 14.7 15.5 7.1
Personal care and service
 occupations 3.1 3.1 2.9
Production occupations 7.8 7.0 12.9
Protective service occupations 1.9 2.1 .8
Sales and related occupations 11.6 11.9 7.7
Transportation and material
 moving occupations 6.2 6.1 7.2

 Occupation Immigrated Immigrated
 5-10 years more than
 ago 10 years
 ago

Architectural and engineering
 occupations 2.0 2.5
Arts, design, entertainment,
 sports, and media occupations 1.4 1.6
Business and financial occupations 2.2 3.3
Community and social service
 occupations .7 1.0
Computer and mathematical
 occupations 3.6 2.6
Construction trades 9.0 6.3
Education, training, and library
 occupations 2.8 3.5
Extraction workers .1 .0
Farming, fishing, and forestry
 occupations 2.1 1.8
Food preparation and serving
 related occupations 17.4 12.4
Healthcare practicitioners and
 technical occupations 3.8 4.8
Healthcare support occupations 2.5 2.2
Installation, maintenance, and
 repair workers 2.8 3.2
Legal occupations .3 .7
Life, physical, and social science
 occupations 1.3 .9
Management occupations 4.9 8.6
Office and administrative support
 occupations 8.6 11.3
Personal care and service
 occupations 3.8 3.6
Production occupations 13.4 11.8
Protective service occupations .9 1.2
Sales and related occupations 9.3 10.3
Transportation and material
 moving occupations 7.3 6.4

SOURCE: Current Population Survey.

Table 9. Percentage of employees and projected net employment change
in selected occupations, by age group (1)

 Percent distribution of employees
 by age group

 Occupation
 16-24 25-54 55 and older

 All occupations 14.7 71.4 13.9
Bus drivers 9.8 45.4 44.8
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket
 takers 7.5 60.1 32.4
Loan counselors and officers 4.8 62.8 32.3
Sales representatives, services,
 all other 4.7 64.0 31.2
Social workers 3.5 66.4 30.1
Environmental scientists and
 geoscientists 4.1 67.8 28.1
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 8.0 64.7 27.3
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers 2.5 70.8 26.7
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 5.5 68.0 26.5
Clergy 11.2 62.5 26.3
Television, video, and motion picture
 camera operators and editors .3 74.3 25.4
Market and survey researchers 8.4 66.2 25.4
Ambulance drivers and attendants,
 except emergency medical
 technicians 5.8 68.9 25.3
Sales engineers 11.7 63.4 24.9
Chief executives .6 74.9 24.4
Special education teachers 5.4 70.9 23.7
Chiropractors 2.7 73.8 23.4
Human resources, training, and labor
 relations specialists 3.7 73.3 23.0
Transit and railroad police 18.0 59.6 22.4
Public relations specialists 5.5 72.8 21.7
Motor vehicle operators, all other 7.9 71.0 21.1
Personal and home care aides 34.8 44.1 21.0
Public relations managers 2.8 76.2 21.0
Food preparation and serving related
 workers, all other 13.3 66.2 20.5
Human resources assistants, except
 payroll and timekeeping 9.9 69.8 20.3

 Employment(thousands)

 2002 2012

 All occupations 144,015 165,319
Bus drivers 654 781
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket
 takers 105 121
Loan counselors and officers 255 302
Sales representatives, services,
 all other 577 717
Social workers 477 604
Environmental scientists and
 geoscientists 101 121
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 186 292
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers 100 118
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 111 133
Clergy 400 463
Television, video, and motion picture
 camera operators and editors 48 56
Market and survey researchers 155 193
Ambulance drivers and attendants,
 except emergency medical
 technicians 17 22
Sales engineers 82 98
Chief executives 553 645
Special education teachers 433 563
Chiropractors 49 60
Human resources, training, and labor
 relations specialists 474 606
Transit and railroad police 6 7
Public relations specialists 158 210
Motor vehicle operators, all other 111 139
Personal and home care aides 608 854
Public relations managers 69 85
Food preparation and serving related
 workers, all other 117 134
Human resources assistants, except
 payroll and timekeeping 174 207

 Change

 Number Percent

 All occupations 21,305 14.8
Bus drivers 106 16.2
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket
 takers 16 15.5
Loan counselors and officers 48 18.7
Sales representatives, services,
 all other 140 24.3
Social workers 127 26.7
Environmental scientists and
 geoscientists 20 20.1
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 106 57.0
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers 18 17.8
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 22 19.7
Clergy 62 15.5
Television, video, and motion picture
 camera operators and editors 9 18.7
Market and survey researchers 38 24.7
Ambulance drivers and attendants,
 except emergency medical
 technicians 5 26.7
Sales engineers 16 19.9
Chief executives 93 16.7
Special education teachers 130 30.0
Chiropractors 11 23.3
Human resources, training, and labor
 relations specialists 131 27.7
Transit and railroad police 1 15.9
Public relations specialists 52 32.9
Motor vehicle operators, all other 28 25.2
Personal and home care aides 246 40.5
Public relations managers 16 23.4
Food preparation and serving related
 workers, all other 18 15.2
Human resources assistants, except
 payroll and timekeeping 33 19.3

 Total job
 openings
 due to
 growth
 and net
 replacement
 (thousands)

 All occupations 56,305
Bus drivers 249
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket
 takers 76
Loan counselors and officers 89
Sales representatives, services,
 all other 250
Social workers 209
Environmental scientists and
 geoscientists 38
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 128
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers 45
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 44
Clergy 144
Television, video, and motion picture
 camera operators and editors 19
Market and survey researchers 78
Ambulance drivers and attendants,
 except emergency medical
 technicians 6
Sales engineers 41
Chief executives 197
Special education teachers 233
Chiropractors 21
Human resources, training, and labor
 relations specialists 204
Transit and railroad police 2
Public relations specialists 75
Motor vehicle operators, all other 44
Personal and home care aides 343
Public relations managers 28
Food preparation and serving related
 workers, all other 54
Human resources assistants, except
 payroll and timekeeping 71

Table 10. Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are
projected to grow faster than over the 2002-12 projection period (1)

 Employment
 Annual
 Industry average
 earnings (2) 2002 2012

Physicians and surgeons $151,153 583,014 696,530
Chief executives 134,960 552,761 645,341
Airline pilots, copilots,
 and flight engineers 122,230 79,158 93,830
Podiatrists 107,430 13,263 15,257
Lawyers 105,890 695,248 813,119
Optometrists 95,440 32,051 37,529
Athletes and sports competitors 92,540 15,116 18,017
Computer and information
 systems managers 90,440 284,415 387,023
Marketing managers 87,170 202,628 245,880
All other health diagnosing and
 treating practitioners 86,280 107,336 133,630
Sales managers 86,110 343,046 447,607
General and operations managers 83,590 2,048,913 2,424,916
Chiropractors 83,440 48,936 60,332
Financial managers 83,080 599,055 708,511
Actuaries 80,780 15,310 17,587
Computer and information
 scientists research 80,510 23,244 30,205
Personal financial advisors 78,460 126,208 169,856
Computer software engineers,
 systems software 75,840 281,103 408,906
Pharmacists 75,140 230,200 299,387
Education administrators,
 elementary and
 secondary school 74,050 216,713 261,540
Computer software
 engineers, applications 73,800 394,076 573,437
Veterinarians 73,720 57,537 71,984
Education administrators,
 postsecondary 71,630 125,037 157,390
Human resources managers 70,960 202,245 241,568
Management analysts 70,160 577,421 753,116
Public relations managers 69,870 69,185 85,408
Industrial-organizational
 psychologists 69,670 1,865 2,164
Medical and health
 services managers 69,370 243,574 314,910
Advertising and
 promotions managers 69,200 85,245 106,536
Sales engineers 69,200 81,682 97,938
Agents and business managers
 of artists, performers, and
 athletes 68,970 15,171 19,392
Financial analysts 67,180 172,122 204,266
Medical scientists,
 except epidemiologists 66,200 57,807 73,364
Biochemists and biophysicists 65,620 16,733 20,560
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 65,070 110,929 132,810
Computer systems analysts 64,890 468,345 652,691
Biomedical engineers 64,420 7,597 9,583
Physician assistants 63,490 63,033 93,827
Sales representatives,
 wholesale and manufacturing,
 technical and scientific
 products 63,460 398,259 475,252
Environmental engineers 63,440 47,114 65,129
Architects, except
 landscape and naval 62,530 113,243 132,782
First-line supervisors/managers
 of police and detectives 61,650 113,828 131,191
Producers and directors 61,500 76,125 90,019
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 61,390 185,971 292,044
Atmospheric and
 space scientists 61,000 7,700 8,944
Market research analysts 60,260 134,474 165,927
Physical therapists 60,180 136,854 185,185
Radiation therapists 60,110 13,505 17,774
Administrative
 services managers 59,350 320,509 383,973
Database administrators 59,080 109,954 158,567
Hydrologists 58,820 7,957 9,628
Epidemiologists 58,190 3,936 5,215
Commercial pilots 58,000 21,073 24,218
All other computer specialists 57,960 191,639 261,647
Dental hygienists 57,790 147,961 211,701
Network and computer systems
 administrators 57,620 251,375 345,273
First-line supervisors/managers
 of fire fighting and
 prevention workers 56,750 62,602 74,299
Clinical, counseling, and
 school psychologists 56,540 137,248 170,782
Microbiologists 55,700 16,454 19,737
All other life scientists 55,270 25,965 30,710
Postsecondary teachers 54,960 1,581,247 2,183,986
All other business
 operations specialists 54,340 1,055,663 1,346,043
Geographers 54,290 817 977
Elevator installers
 and repairers 53,540 21,012 24,603
Orthotists and prosthetists 53,410 4,631 5,505
Technical writers 53,310 49,584 63,030
Accountants and auditors 53,230 1,055,217 1,260,676
Occupational therapists 53,040 81,624 110,366
Detectives and criminal
 investigators 52,960 93,667 114,674
Nuclear medicine technologists 52,260 17,142 21,193
Loan officers 52,160 223,469 265,540
Landscape architects 52,050 23,135 28,270
Audiologists 51,840 10,929 14,098
All other financial specialists 51,550 161,978 190,476
Speech-language pathologists 51,490 94,319 119,964
Cost estimators 51,310 188,044 223,007
Sales representatives,
 wholesale and manufacturing,
 except technical and
 scientific products 51,130 1,458,800 1,738,145
Environmental scientists and
 specialists, including health 50,970 65,069 80,476
Multi-media artists
 and animators 50,860 74,826 86,648
Flight attendants 50,460 104,008 120,596
Writers and authors 50,300 138,980 161,316
First-line supervisors/
 managers of mechanics,
 installers, and repairers 50,030 443,985 512,275
Registered nurses 49,840 2,284,459 2,907,614
Diagnostic medical sonographers 49,710 36,508 45,281
Credit analysts 49,530 65,934 78,282
Instructional coordinators 49,510 98,454 123,472
Musicians and singers 48,240 161,154 188,649
Compensation, benefits, and job
 analysis specialists 47,920 90,669 116,074
Emergency management
 specialists 47,320 10,948 14,040
First-line supervisors/managers
 of correctional officers 47,000 33,417 39,754
Social and community
 service managers 46,900 128,769 164,424
Public relations specialists 46,590 158,079 210,133
Educational, vocational, and
 school counselors 46,160 228,159 262,295
Appraisers and assessors
 of real estate 46,120 88,245 103,796
Employment, recruitment,
 and placement specialists 46,050 174,819 222,547
Secondary school teachers,
 except special and
 vocational education 46,010 987,503 1,167,231
Training and development
 specialists 46,000 208,952 267,248
Special education teachers 45,776 432,925 562,698
Sound engineering technicians 45,750 12,830 16,097
Transit and railroad police 45,750 6,153 7,132
Cartographers and
 photogrammetrists 45,180 8,554 9,846
Film and video editors 44,540 19,390 24,507
Elementary school teachers,
 except special education 44,080 1,467,155 1,690,357
Electricians 43,910 659,441 813,908
Interior designers 43,770 60,050 73,073
Fine artists, including
 painters, sculptors,
 and illustrators 43,750 23,192 27,028
Medical and clinical
 laboratory technologists 43,670 149,952 178,879
Police and sheriff's
 patrol officers 43,390 618,786 771,581
Forensic science technicians 43,280 8,390 9,977
All other media and
 communication workers 43,120 57,717 67,621
Actors 42,820 63,033 74,202
Plumbers, pipefitters,
 and steamfitters 42,630 492,126 584,068
Structural iron and
 steel workers 42,360 78,060 90,443
All other sales and
 related workers 42,350 576,778 717,076
Computer support specialists 42,320 506,877 660,309
Kindergarten teachers, except
 special education 42,040 168,461 214,322
Dietitians and nutritionists 41,920 48,871 57,550
Adult literacy, remedial
 education, and GED teachers
 and instructors 41,470 80,076 96,375
Graphic designers 41,380 211,871 258,250
Aircraft cargo handling
 supervisors 41,220 8,916 10,306
Meeting and convention planners 41,020 36,867 44,713
Airfield operations specialists 40,850 6,081 7,127
Respiratory therapists 40,700 85,770 115,599
Reinforcing iron
 and rebar workers 40,640 28,670 33,445
Paralegals and legal assistants 40,590 199,626 256,907
Tapers 40,550 40,763 49,245
All other entertainers
 and performers, sports
 and related workers 40,380 56,054 65,220
Gaming supervisors 40,180 38,962 45,066
Radiologic technologists
 and technicians 40,150 174,112 214,071
Archivists, curators, and
 museum technicians 39,750 22,258 26,040
Telecommunications line
 installers and repairers 39,560 167,389 198,845
All other media and
 communication equipment
 workers 39,530 24,342 29,243
Environmental
 engineering technicians 39,380 19,085 24,496
Education administrators,
 preschool and child care
 center/program 39,190 57,991 76,544
Health educators 39,190 44,536 54,279
Medical and public health
 social workers 38,920 107,194 137,903
Marriage and family therapists 38,370 23,495 28,761
First-line supervisors/managers
 of protective service
 workers, except police,
 fire, and corrections 38,060 56,314 69,754
Tile and marble setters 37,740 33,171 41,960
Cardiovascular technologists
 and technicians 37,680 43,390 57,943
Sheet metal workers 37,620 205,016 245,604
All other vehicle and mobile
 equipment mechanics,
 installers, and repairers 37,580 35,818 41,327
Fire fighters 37,530 281,948 340,402
Environmental science and
 protection technicians,
 including health 37,370 27,591 37,738
Set and exhibit designers 37,250 12,119 14,652
Occupational therapist
 assistants 36,950 18,484 25,725
All other electrical and
 electronic equipment
 mechanics, installers,
 and repairers 36,710 21,928 26,229
Legal secretaries 36,580 263,712 313,403
Audio and video
 equipment technicians 36,550 41,759 52,927
All other life, physical, and
 social science technicians 36,520 137,443 161,500
Loan counselors 36,450 31,106 36,644
Heating, air conditioning,
 and refrigeration
 mechanics and installers 36,430 248,669 327,731
Physical therapist assistants 36,360 50,188 72,580
Drywall and
 ceiling tile installers 36,350 135,361 164,373
First-line supervisors/managers
 of landscaping, lawn service,
 and groundskeeping workers 36,220 149,727 182,142
Clergy 36,080 400,485 462,599
Athletic trainers 36,070 14,283 18,548
Painters, transportation
 equipment 35,700 49,999 58,751
Child, family, and school
 social workers 35,640 274,455 338,049
Hazardous materials
 removal workers 35,610 37,559 53,760
All other health practitioners
 and technical workers 35,530 189,504 241,031
Audio-visual collections
 specialists 35,370 9,771 11,361
All other teachers, primary,
 secondary, and adult 35,210 679,385 908,116
Respiratory therapy technicians 34,930 26,421 35,469
Carpet installers 34,920 82,218 96,013
Interpreters and translators 34,900 24,111 29,427
Mental health and substance
 abuse social workers 34,860 94,946 127,709
Computer, automated teller,
 and office machine repairers 34,810 156,286 179,815
Glaziers 34,660 48,519 56,859
Correctional
 officers and jailers 34,650 427,147 530,522
Biological technicians 34,630 47,903 57,181
Water and liquid waste
 treatment plant and
 system operators 34,620 99,300 115,180
Security and fire
 alarm systems installers 34,390 46,303 60,277
Truck drivers, heavy
 and tractor-trailer 34,350 1,767,093 2,103,667
Private detectives
 and investigators 34,250 48,009 60,160
Coaches and scouts 34,170 129,715 153,492
Cement masons and
 concrete finishers 33,800 181,692 229,047
Choreographers 33,790 17,313 20,057
Desktop publishers 33,730 34,994 45,211
Massage therapists 33,720 92,086 116,998
All other counselors, social,
 and religious workers 33,710 247,823 317,863
Cargo and freight agents 33,350 59,128 68,286
Rooters 33,020 166,235 197,094
Self-enrichment
 education teachers 32,910 200,365 280,783
Mental health counselors 32,800 84,816 107,419
Lay-out workers,
 metal and plastic 32,600 12,802 14,793
Insulation workers 32,500 53,466 61,938
All other library, museum,
 training, and other
 education workers 32,490 92,674 115,506
Directors, religious
 activities and education 32,330 105,311 130,657
Licensed practical and
 licensed vocational nurses 32,300 701,879 843,658
Makeup artists, theatrical
 and performance 32,120 1,627 1,923
Mechanical door repairers 32,080 10,766 13,117
Chefs and head cooks 32,000 131,857 152,753
Surgical technologists 31,960 72,248 92,423
Substance abuse and behavioral
 disorder counselors 31,860 67,148 82,760
Surveying and
 mapping technicians 31,760 60,139 74,059
Tax preparers 31,630 79,498 97,924
Human resources assistants,
 except payroll
 and timekeeping 31,530 173,844 207,311
All other related
 transportation workers 31,360 40,478 46,609
Medical appliance technicians 31,340 13,806 16,031
Maintenance and repair
 workers, general 31,010 1,265,585 1,472,372
Terrazzo workers and finishers 30,830 6,351 7,318
Welders, cutters,
 solderers, and brazers 30,820 390,524 456,731
Bus drivers, transit
 and intercity 30,810 201,921 232,523
First-line supervisors/managers
 of housekeeping and janitorial
 workers 30,430 229,910 267,243
Survey researchers 30,360 20,246 27,055
Medical and clinical
 laboratory technicians 30,330 147,462 176,127
Motorboat mechanics 30,310 21,660 25,626
Locksmiths and safe repairers 30,250 22,929 27,748
Fitness trainers and
 aerobics instructors 29,910 182,720 263,947
Septic tank servicers and sewer
 pipe cleaners 29,750 17,923 21,724
Segmental pavers 29,630 2,170 2,527
Motorcycle mechanics 28,690 15,095 17,916
Rehabilitation counselors 28,590 122,239 163,536
Recreational vehicle
 service technicians 28,530 12,552 15,287
Bill and account collectors 28,330 412,966 513,945
Coin, vending, and amusement
 machine servicers and
 repairers 28,250 42,729 49,212
Customer service
 representatives 28,240 1,894,053 2,353,786
Dental assistants 27,910 266,025 378,992
All other air transportation
 workers 27,910 11,725 13,999
Opticians, dispensing 27,830 63,207 74,681
Medical transcriptionists 27,730 100,830 123,637

 Change

 Industry Number Percent

Physicians and surgeons 113,516 19.5
Chief executives 92,579 16.7
Airline pilots, copilots,
 and flight engineers 14,672 18.5
Podiatrists 1,994 15.0
Lawyers 117,872 17.0
Optometrists 5,478 17.1
Athletes and sports competitors 2,901 19.2
Computer and information
 systems managers 102,608 36.1
Marketing managers 43,252 21.3
All other health diagnosing and
 treating practitioners 26,293 24.5
Sales managers 104,562 30.5
General and operations managers 376,003 18.4
Chiropractors 11,396 23.3
Financial managers 109,456 18.3
Actuaries 2,277 14.9
Computer and information
 scientists research 6,961 29.9
Personal financial advisors 43,648 34.6
Computer software engineers,
 systems software 127,803 45.5
Pharmacists 69,187 30.1
Education administrators,
 elementary and
 secondary school 44,826 20.7
Computer software
 engineers, applications 179,361 45.5
Veterinarians 14,447 25.1
Education administrators,
 postsecondary 32,353 25.9
Human resources managers 39,323 19.4
Management analysts 175,695 30.4
Public relations managers 16,223 23.4
Industrial-organizational
 psychologists 299 16.0
Medical and health
 services managers 71,336 29.3
Advertising and
 promotions managers 21,291 25.0
Sales engineers 16,256 19.9
Agents and business managers
 of artists, performers, and
 athletes 4,221 27.8
Financial analysts 32,144 18.7
Medical scientists,
 except epidemiologists 15,557 26.9
Biochemists and biophysicists 3,827 22.9
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 21,880 19.7
Computer systems analysts 184,346 39.4
Biomedical engineers 1,986 26.1
Physician assistants 30,794 48.9
Sales representatives,
 wholesale and manufacturing,
 technical and scientific
 products 76,993 19.3
Environmental engineers 18,016 38.2
Architects, except
 landscape and naval 19,538 17.3
First-line supervisors/managers
 of police and detectives 17,363 15.3
Producers and directors 13,894 18.3
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 106,073 57.0
Atmospheric and
 space scientists 1,244 16.2
Market research analysts 31,453 23.4
Physical therapists 48,331 35.3
Radiation therapists 4,269 31.6
Administrative
 services managers 63,464 19.8
Database administrators 48,613 44.2
Hydrologists 1,671 21.0
Epidemiologists 1,279 32.5
Commercial pilots 3,145 14.9
All other computer specialists 70,009 36.5
Dental hygienists 63,740 43.1
Network and computer systems
 administrators 93,899 37.4
First-line supervisors/managers
 of fire fighting and
 prevention workers 11,698 18.7
Clinical, counseling, and
 school psychologists 33,534 24.4
Microbiologists 3,283 20.0
All other life scientists 4,745 18.3
Postsecondary teachers 602,739 38.1
All other business
 operations specialists 290,380 27.5
Geographers 160 19.5
Elevator installers
 and repairers 3,591 17.1
Orthotists and prosthetists 874 18.9
Technical writers 13,446 27.1
Accountants and auditors 205,459 19.5
Occupational therapists 28,742 35.2
Detectives and criminal
 investigators 21,006 22.4
Nuclear medicine technologists 4,051 23.6
Loan officers 42,071 18.8
Landscape architects 5,136 22.2
Audiologists 3,170 29.0
All other financial specialists 28,498 17.6
Speech-language pathologists 25,645 27.2
Cost estimators 34,963 18.6
Sales representatives,
 wholesale and manufacturing,
 except technical and
 scientific products 279,345 19.1
Environmental scientists and
 specialists, including health 15,407 23.7
Multi-media artists
 and animators 11,821 15.8
Flight attendants 16,588 15.9
Writers and authors 22,336 16.1
First-line supervisors/
 managers of mechanics,
 installers, and repairers 68,290 15.4
Registered nurses 623,156 27.3
Diagnostic medical sonographers 8,774 24.0
Credit analysts 12,349 18.7
Instructional coordinators 25,018 25.4
Musicians and singers 27,495 17.1
Compensation, benefits, and job
 analysis specialists 25,405 28.0
Emergency management
 specialists 3,092 28.2
First-line supervisors/managers
 of correctional officers 6,336 19.0
Social and community
 service managers 35,654 27.7
Public relations specialists 52,054 32.9
Educational, vocational, and
 school counselors 34,136 15.0
Appraisers and assessors
 of real estate 15,551 17.6
Employment, recruitment,
 and placement specialists 47,728 27.3
Secondary school teachers,
 except special and
 vocational education 179,728 18.2
Training and development
 specialists 58,296 27.9
Special education teachers 129,772 30.0
Sound engineering technicians 3,266 25.5
Transit and railroad police 980 15.9
Cartographers and
 photogrammetrists 1,292 15.1
Film and video editors 5,117 26.4
Elementary school teachers,
 except special education 223,203 15.2
Electricians 154,467 23.4
Interior designers 13,023 21.7
Fine artists, including
 painters, sculptors,
 and illustrators 3,836 16.5
Medical and clinical
 laboratory technologists 28,926 19.3
Police and sheriff's
 patrol officers 152,795 24.7
Forensic science technicians 1,587 18.9
All other media and
 communication workers 9,903 17.2
Actors 11,168 17.7
Plumbers, pipefitters,
 and steamfitters 91,942 18.7
Structural iron and
 steel workers 12,383 15.9
All other sales and
 related workers 140,298 24.3
Computer support specialists 153,432 30.3
Kindergarten teachers, except
 special education 45,861 27.2
Dietitians and nutritionists 8,679 17.8
Adult literacy, remedial
 education, and GED teachers
 and instructors 16,299 20.4
Graphic designers 46,379 21.9
Aircraft cargo handling
 supervisors 1,390 15.6
Meeting and convention planners 7,846 21.3
Airfield operations specialists 1,046 17.2
Respiratory therapists 29,829 34.8
Reinforcing iron
 and rebar workers 4,775 16.7
Paralegals and legal assistants 57,281 28.7
Tapers 8,482 20.8
All other entertainers
 and performers, sports
 and related workers 9,166 16.4
Gaming supervisors 6,103 15.7
Radiologic technologists
 and technicians 39,958 22.9
Archivists, curators, and
 museum technicians 3,782 17.0
Telecommunications line
 installers and repairers 31,456 18.8
All other media and
 communication equipment
 workers 4,900 20.1
Environmental
 engineering technicians 5,411 28.4
Education administrators,
 preschool and child care
 center/program 18,553 32.0
Health educators 9,743 21.9
Medical and public health
 social workers 30,709 28.6
Marriage and family therapists 5,266 22.4
First-line supervisors/managers
 of protective service
 workers, except police,
 fire, and corrections 13,440 23.9
Tile and marble setters 8,790 26.5
Cardiovascular technologists
 and technicians 14,554 33.5
Sheet metal workers 40,588 19.8
All other vehicle and mobile
 equipment mechanics,
 installers, and repairers 5,509 15.4
Fire fighters 58,454 20.7
Environmental science and
 protection technicians,
 including health 10,147 36.8
Set and exhibit designers 2,534 20.9
Occupational therapist
 assistants 7,241 392.0
All other electrical and
 electronic equipment
 mechanics, installers,
 and repairers 4,301 19.6
Legal secretaries 49,691 18.8
Audio and video
 equipment technicians 11,169 26.7
All other life, physical, and
 social science technicians 24,057 17.5
Loan counselors 5,539 17.8
Heating, air conditioning,
 and refrigeration
 mechanics and installers 79,062 31.8
Physical therapist assistants 22,392 44.6
Drywall and
 ceiling tile installers 29,012 21.4
First-line supervisors/managers
 of landscaping, lawn service,
 and groundskeeping workers 32,415 21.6
Clergy 62,114 15.5
Athletic trainers 4,265 29.9
Painters, transportation
 equipment 8,752 17.5
Child, family, and school
 social workers 63,594 23.2
Hazardous materials
 removal workers 16,201 43.1
All other health practitioners
 and technical workers 51,528 27.2
Audio-visual collections
 specialists 1,590 16.3
All other teachers, primary,
 secondary, and adult 228,731 33.7
Respiratory therapy technicians 9,048 34.2
Carpet installers 13,795 16.8
Interpreters and translators 5,317 22.1
Mental health and substance
 abuse social workers 32,763 34.5
Computer, automated teller,
 and office machine repairers 23,529 15.1
Glaziers 8,340 17.2
Correctional
 officers and jailers 103,375 24.2
Biological technicians 9,279 19.4
Water and liquid waste
 treatment plant and
 system operators 15,881 16.0
Security and fire
 alarm systems installers 13,974 30.2
Truck drivers, heavy
 and tractor-trailer 336,574 19.0
Private detectives
 and investigators 12,151 25.3
Coaches and scouts 23,777 18.3
Cement masons and
 concrete finishers 47,355 26.1
Choreographers 2,744 15.8
Desktop publishers 10,217 29.2
Massage therapists 24,912 27.1
All other counselors, social,
 and religious workers 70,040 28.3
Cargo and freight agents 9,157 15.5
Rooters 30,859 18.6
Self-enrichment
 education teachers 80,418 40.1
Mental health counselors 22,604 26.7
Lay-out workers,
 metal and plastic 1,991 15.5
Insulation workers 8,472 15.8
All other library, museum,
 training, and other
 education workers 22,832 24.6
Directors, religious
 activities and education 25,346 24.1
Licensed practical and
 licensed vocational nurses 141,779 20.2
Makeup artists, theatrical
 and performance 296 18.2
Mechanical door repairers 2,351 21.8
Chefs and head cooks 20,896 15.8
Surgical technologists 20,175 27.9
Substance abuse and behavioral
 disorder counselors 15,612 23.3
Surveying and
 mapping technicians 13,920 23.1
Tax preparers 18,426 23.2
Human resources assistants,
 except payroll
 and timekeeping 33,467 19.3
All other related
 transportation workers 6,132 15.1
Medical appliance technicians 2,225 16.1
Maintenance and repair
 workers, general 206,787 16.3
Terrazzo workers and finishers 967 15.2
Welders, cutters,
 solderers, and brazers 66,206 17.0
Bus drivers, transit
 and intercity 30,602 15.2
First-line supervisors/managers
 of housekeeping and janitorial
 workers 37,333 16.2
Survey researchers 6,809 33.6
Medical and clinical
 laboratory technicians 28,665 19.4
Motorboat mechanics 3,966 18.3
Locksmiths and safe repairers 4,819 21.0
Fitness trainers and
 aerobics instructors 81,227 44.5
Septic tank servicers and sewer
 pipe cleaners 3,801 21.2
Segmental pavers 357 16.5
Motorcycle mechanics 2,821 18.7
Rehabilitation counselors 41,298 33.8
Recreational vehicle
 service technicians 2,735 21.8
Bill and account collectors 100,979 24.5
Coin, vending, and amusement
 machine servicers and
 repairers 6,483 15.2
Customer service
 representatives 459,732 24.3
Dental assistants 112,967 42.5
All other air transportation
 workers 2,274 19.4
Opticians, dispensing 11,474 18.2
Medical transcriptionists 22,807 22.6

 Cumulative
 Cumulative percentage
 percentage of total
 Industry of total projected
 2002 employment
 employment change,
 2002-12

Physicians and surgeons 0.4 0.5
Chief executives .8 1.0
Airline pilots, copilots,
 and flight engineers .8 1.0
Podiatrists .9 1.0
Lawyers 1.3 1.6
Optometrists 1.4 1.6
Athletes and sports competitors 1.4 1.6
Computer and information
 systems managers 1.6 2.1
Marketing managers 1.7 2.3
All other health diagnosing and
 treating practitioners 1.8 2.4
Sales managers 2.0 2.9
General and operations managers 3.4 4.7
Chiropractors 3.5 4.8
Financial managers 3.9 5.3
Actuaries 3.9 5.3
Computer and information
 scientists research 3.9 5.3
Personal financial advisors 4.0 5.5
Computer software engineers,
 systems software 4.2 6.1
Pharmacists 4.4 6.4
Education administrators,
 elementary and
 secondary school 4.5 6.7
Computer software
 engineers, applications 4.8 7.5
Veterinarians 4.8 7.6
Education administrators,
 postsecondary 4.9 7.7
Human resources managers 5.1 7.9
Management analysts 5.5 8.7
Public relations managers 5.5 8.8
Industrial-organizational
 psychologists 5.5 8.8
Medical and health
 services managers 5.7 9.1
Advertising and
 promotions managers 5.7 9.2
Sales engineers 5.8 9.3
Agents and business managers
 of artists, performers, and
 athletes 5.8 9.3
Financial analysts 5.9 9.5
Medical scientists,
 except epidemiologists 6.0 9.6
Biochemists and biophysicists 6.0 9.6
Transportation, storage, and
 distribution managers 6.0 9.7
Computer systems analysts 6.4 10.5
Biomedical engineers 6.4 10.6
Physician assistants 6.4 10.7
Sales representatives,
 wholesale and manufacturing,
 technical and scientific
 products 6.7 11.1
Environmental engineers 6.7 11.1
Architects, except
 landscape and naval 6.8 11.2
First-line supervisors/managers
 of police and detectives 6.9 11.3
Producers and directors 6.9 11.4
Network systems and data
 communications analysts 7.1 11.9
Atmospheric and
 space scientists 7.1 11.9
Market research analysts 7.2 12.0
Physical therapists 7.3 12.3
Radiation therapists 7.3 12.3
Administrative
 services managers 7.5 12.6
Database administrators 7.6 12.8
Hydrologists 7.6 12.8
Epidemiologists 7.6 12.8
Commercial pilots 7.6 12.8
All other computer specialists 7.7 13.2
Dental hygienists 7.8 13.5
Network and computer systems
 administrators 8.0 13.9
First-line supervisors/managers
 of fire fighting and
 prevention workers 8.0 14.0
Clinical, counseling, and
 school psychologists 8.1 14.1
Microbiologists 8.2 14.1
All other life scientists 8.2 14.2
Postsecondary teachers 9.3 17.0
All other business
 operations specialists 10.0 18.3
Geographers 10.0 18.3
Elevator installers
 and repairers 10.0 18.4
Orthotists and prosthetists 10.0 18.4
Technical writers 10.1 18.4
Accountants and auditors 10.8 19.4
Occupational therapists 10.8 19.5
Detectives and criminal
 investigators 10.9 19.6
Nuclear medicine technologists 10.9 19.6
Loan officers 11.1 19.8
Landscape architects 11.1 19.9
Audiologists 11.1 19.9
All other financial specialists 11.2 20.0
Speech-language pathologists 11.3 20.1
Cost estimators 11.4 20.3
Sales representatives,
 wholesale and manufacturing,
 except technical and
 scientific products 12.4 21.6
Environmental scientists and
 specialists, including health 12.5 21.7
Multi-media artists
 and animators 12.5 21.7
Flight attendants 12.6 21.8
Writers and authors 12.7 21.9
First-line supervisors/
 managers of mechanics,
 installers, and repairers 13.0 22.2
Registered nurses 14.6 25.2
Diagnostic medical sonographers 14.6 25.2
Credit analysts 14.7 25.3
Instructional coordinators 14.7 25.4
Musicians and singers 14.8 25.5
Compensation, benefits, and job
 analysis specialists 14.9 25.6
Emergency management
 specialists 14.9 25.6
First-line supervisors/managers
 of correctional officers 14.9 25.7
Social and community
 service managers 15.0 25.8
Public relations specialists 15.1 26.1
Educational, vocational, and
 school counselors 15.3 26.2
Appraisers and assessors
 of real estate 15.3 26.3
Employment, recruitment,
 and placement specialists 15.5 26.5
Secondary school teachers,
 except special and
 vocational education 16.2 27.4
Training and development
 specialists 16.3 27.7
Special education teachers 16.6 28.3
Sound engineering technicians 16.6 28.3
Transit and railroad police 16.6 28.3
Cartographers and
 photogrammetrists 16.6 28.3
Film and video editors 16.6 28.3
Elementary school teachers,
 except special education 17.7 29.4
Electricians 18.1 30.1
Interior designers 18.2 30.2
Fine artists, including
 painters, sculptors,
 and illustrators 18.2 30.2
Medical and clinical
 laboratory technologists 18.3 30.3
Police and sheriff's
 patrol officers 18.7 31.0
Forensic science technicians 18.7 31.0
All other media and
 communication workers 18.7 31.1
Actors 18.8 31.1
Plumbers, pipefitters,
 and steamfitters 19.1 31.6
Structural iron and
 steel workers 19.2 31.6
All other sales and
 related workers 19.6 32.3
Computer support specialists 19.9 33.0
Kindergarten teachers, except
 special education 20.1 33.2
Dietitians and nutritionists 20.1 33.3
Adult literacy, remedial
 education, and GED teachers
 and instructors 20.1 33.3
Graphic designers 20.3 33.6
Aircraft cargo handling
 supervisors 20.3 33.6
Meeting and convention planners 20.3 33.6
Airfield operations specialists 20.3 33.6
Respiratory therapists 20.4 33.7
Reinforcing iron
 and rebar workers 20.4 33.8
Paralegals and legal assistants 20.5 34.0
Tapers 20.6 34.1
All other entertainers
 and performers, sports
 and related workers 20.6 34.1
Gaming supervisors 20.6 34.1
Radiologic technologists
 and technicians 20.8 34.3
Archivists, curators, and
 museum technicians 20.8 34.3
Telecommunications line
 installers and repairers 20.9 34.5
All other media and
 communication equipment
 workers 20.9 34.5
Environmental
 engineering technicians 20.9 34.5
Education administrators,
 preschool and child care
 center/program 21.0 34.6
Health educators 21.0 34.7
Medical and public health
 social workers 21.1 34.8
Marriage and family therapists 21.1 34.8
First-line supervisors/managers
 of protective service
 workers, except police,
 fire, and corrections 21.1 34.9
Tile and marble setters 21.1 34.9
Cardiovascular technologists
 and technicians 21.2 35.0
Sheet metal workers 21.3 35.2
All other vehicle and mobile
 equipment mechanics,
 installers, and repairers 21.3 35.2
Fire fighters 21.5 35.5
Environmental science and
 protection technicians,
 including health 21.6 35.6
Set and exhibit designers 21.6 35.6
Occupational therapist
 assistants 21.6 35.6
All other electrical and
 electronic equipment
 mechanics, installers,
 and repairers 21.6 35.6
Legal secretaries 21.8 35.9
Audio and video
 equipment technicians 21.8 35.9
All other life, physical, and
 social science technicians 21.9 36.0
Loan counselors 21.9 36.0
Heating, air conditioning,
 and refrigeration
 mechanics and installers 22.1 36.4
Physical therapist assistants 22.1 36.5
Drywall and
 ceiling tile installers 22.2 36.7
First-line supervisors/managers
 of landscaping, lawn service,
 and groundskeeping workers 22.3 36.8
Clergy 22.6 37.1
Athletic trainers 22.6 37.1
Painters, transportation
 equipment 22.7 37.2
Child, family, and school
 social workers 22.8 37.5
Hazardous materials
 removal workers 22.9 37.5
All other health practitioners
 and technical workers 23.0 37.8
Audio-visual collections
 specialists 23.0 37.8
All other teachers, primary,
 secondary, and adult 23.5 38.9
Respiratory therapy technicians 23.5 38.9
Carpet installers 23.6 39.0
Interpreters and translators 23.6 39.0
Mental health and substance
 abuse social workers 23.6 39.1
Computer, automated teller,
 and office machine repairers 23.7 39.3
Glaziers 23.8 39.3
Correctional
 officers and jailers 24.1 39.8
Biological technicians 24.1 39.8
Water and liquid waste
 treatment plant and
 system operators 24.2 39.9
Security and fire
 alarm systems installers 24.2 40.0
Truck drivers, heavy
 and tractor-trailer 25.4 41.5
Private detectives
 and investigators 25.5 41.6
Coaches and scouts 25.6 41.7
Cement masons and
 concrete finishers 25.7 41.9
Choreographers 25.7 41.9
Desktop publishers 25.7 42.0
Massage therapists 25.8 42.1
All other counselors, social,
 and religious workers 26.0 42.4
Cargo and freight agents 26.0 42.5
Rooters 26.1 42.6
Self-enrichment
 education teachers 26.3 43.0
Mental health counselors 26.3 43.1
Lay-out workers,
 metal and plastic 26.3 43.1
Insulation workers 26.4 43.2
All other library, museum,
 training, and other
 education workers 26.4 43.3
Directors, religious
 activities and education 26.5 43.4
Licensed practical and
 licensed vocational nurses 27.0 44.1
Makeup artists, theatrical
 and performance 27.0 44.1
Mechanical door repairers 27.0 44.1
Chefs and head cooks 27.1 44.2
Surgical technologists 27.1 44.3
Substance abuse and behavioral
 disorder counselors 27.2 44.3
Surveying and
 mapping technicians 27.2 44.4
Tax preparers 27.3 44.5
Human resources assistants,
 except payroll
 and timekeeping 27.4 44.6
All other related
 transportation workers 27.4 44.7
Medical appliance technicians 27.4 44.7
Maintenance and repair
 workers, general 28.3 45.7
Terrazzo workers and finishers 28.3 45.7
Welders, cutters,
 solderers, and brazers 28.6 46.0
Bus drivers, transit
 and intercity 28.7 46.1
First-line supervisors/managers
 of housekeeping and janitorial
 workers 28.9 46.3
Survey researchers 28.9 46.3
Medical and clinical
 laboratory technicians 29.0 46.5
Motorboat mechanics 29.0 46.5
Locksmiths and safe repairers 29.0 46.5
Fitness trainers and
 aerobics instructors 29.2 46.9
Septic tank servicers and sewer
 pipe cleaners 29.2 46.9
Segmental pavers 29.2 46.9
Motorcycle mechanics 29.2 46.9
Rehabilitation counselors 29.3 47.1
Recreational vehicle
 service technicians 29.3 47.1
Bill and account collectors 29.6 47.6
Coin, vending, and amusement
 machine servicers and
 repairers 29.6 47.6
Customer service
 representatives 30.9 49.8
Dental assistants 31.1 50.3
All other air transportation
 workers 31.1 50.3
Opticians, dispensing 31.2 50.4
Medical transcriptionists 31.2 50.5

(1) Relatively high paying is defined as "having average annual
earnings that are in the top two quartiles of the overall
distribution of earnings in the 2002 Occupational Employment
Survey." Fast growing is defined as "having a projected employment
change equal to or exceeding 14.8 percent, the overall average of
the projections."

Table 11. Employment and average real weekly earnings of usual
full-time wage and salary workers, by gender and level of educational
attainment, 1994-2000
 Employment(thousands)
Population
 1994 2000 Percent
 change

Total 87,382 99,917 14.3
 Less than high school 9,373 10,674 13.9
 High school 29,992 32,213 7.4
 Some college, no degree 17,377 19,403 11.7
 Associate's degree, educational 4,027 4,588 13.9
 Associate's degree, vocational 3,315 4,189 26.4
 Bachelor's degree 15,872 19,534 23.1
 Master's degree or higher 7,427 9,315 25.4

 Some college 24,719 28,181 14.0
 Bachelor's degree or higher 23,299 28,849 23.8

Men 49,993 56,273 12.6
 Less than high school 6,325 7,010 10.8
 High school 17,052 18,267 7.1
 Some college, no degree 9,534 10,539 10.5
 Associate's degree, educational 2,077 2,432 17.1
 Associate's degree, vocational 1,675 1,971 17.7
 Bachelor's degree 8,960 10,757 20.1
 Master's degree or higher 4,372 5,297 21.2

 Some college 13,285 14,942 12.5
 Bachelor's degree or higher 13,332 16,054 20.4

Women 37,387 43,644 16.7
 Less than high school 3,048 3,664 20.2
 High school 12,940 13,946 7.8
 Some college, no degree 7,843 8,865 13.0
 Associate's degree, educational 1,950 2,156 10.6
 Associate's degree, vocational 1,641 2,219 35.2
 Bachelor's degree 6,912 8,777 27.0
 Master's degree or higher 3,055 4,018 31.5
 Some college 11,434 13,239 15.8
 Bachelor's degree or higher 9,966 12,795 28.4

 Real weekly earnings in 2002
 CPI-U dollars

 1994 2000 Percent
 change

Total $697 $724 3.9
 Less than high school 415 409 -1.4
 High school 556 562 1.1
 Some college, no degree 633 644 1.7
 Associate's degree, educational 673 673 .0
 Associate's degree, vocational 705 711 .9
 Bachelor's degree 938 996 6.2
 Master's degree or higher 1,270 1,273 .2

 Some college 649 659 1.5
 Bachelor's degree or higher 1,044 1,085 3.9

Men 787 821 4.3
 Less than high school 453 452 -.2
 High school 630 638 1.3
 Some college, no degree 724 738 1.9
 Associate's degree, educational 758 777 2.5
 Associate's degree, vocational 797 833 4.5
 Bachelor's degree 1,079 1,146 6.2
 Master's degree or higher 1,426 1,460 2.4

 Some college 739 757 2.4
 Bachelor's degree or higher 1,193 1,250 4.8

Women 578 599 3.6
 Less than high school 336 328 -2.4
 High school 458 463 1.1
 Some college, no degree 523 532 1.7
 Associate's degree, educational 583 554 -5.0
 Associate's degree, vocational 611 603 -1.3
 Bachelor's degree 755 811 7.4
 Master's degree or higher 1,047 1,026 -2.0
 Some college 546 548 .4
 Bachelor's degree or higher 845 879 4.0

 Earnings as a percentage of
 average high school
 earnings in 2000

Total 128.8
 Less than high school 72.8
 High school 100.0
 Some college, no degree 114.6
 Associate's degree, educational 119.8
 Associate's degree, vocational 126.5
 Bachelor's degree 177.2
 Master's degree or higher 226.5

 Some college 117.3
 Bachelor's degree or higher 193.1

Men 128.7
 Less than high school 70.8
 High school 100.0
 Some college, no degree 115.7
 Associate's degree, educational 121.8
 Associate's degree, vocational 130.6
 Bachelor's degree 179.6
 Master's degree or higher 228.8

 Some college 118.7
 Bachelor's degree or higher 195.9

Women 129.4
 Less than high school 70.8
 High school 100.0
 Some college, no degree 114.9
 Associate's degree, educational 119.7
 Associate's degree, vocational 130.2
 Bachelor's degree 175.2
 Master's degree or higher 221.6
 Some college 118.4
 Bachelor's degree or higher 189.8

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, quarterly sample, annual averages


Notes

(1) Total job openings are given by the sum of net employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements.

(2) In traditional national income accounting practices, nominal gross duplicated output (also called double counting) is a measure of duplicated output, by virtue of the fact that it includes intermediate inputs which are eventually part of final output. This article uses nominal, rather than real, 1996 chain-weighted gross duplicated output because adding the outputs of various industries under the latter concept does not yield total output.

(3) Perhaps nowhere is the contrast more apparent than in the production of computers compared with the provision of computer services. The production of computers is a capital-intensive enterprise. Between 1992 and 2002, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing industry fell by 24 percent, from 329,000 to 250,000. Over the same period, output in the industry grew from $28 billion to $263 billion (in 1996 chain-weighted dollars), an increase of more than 24.9 percent per year. In the computer systems design and related services industry, employment increased by more than 161 percent, from 445,000 to 1,163,000 over the 1992-2002 period. Output also increased over the same period, at an annual rate of 8.8 percent. The Bureau projects a similar trend in the two industries over the 2002-12 period. (See Jay M. Berman, "Industry output and employment projections to 2012," this issue, pp. 58-79, table 3.)

(4) Daniel E. Hecker, "Occupational employment projections to 2012," this issue, pp. 80-105.

(5) See Berman, "Industry output and employment projections to 2012," table 4.

(6) Ibid., table 5.

(7) Ibid., table 6.

(8) Ibid., table 7.

(9) Mitra Toossi, "A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 1950-2050, Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 15-28.

(10) The material in this section was prepared both by the author and by Norman Saunders, Division of Industry Employment Projections, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections.

(11) Currently, however, there are no national surveys of occupations that provide information either on the durations of vacancies or on wage offers. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates job openings by industry for the entire U.S. economy, and 37 States conduct job vacancy surveys that estimate job openings by occupation.

(12) Hecker, "Occupational employment projections to 2012"; see especially tables 3 and 4.

(13) 2004-2005 Occupational Projections and Training Data, forthcoming.

Comparing the 2000-10 and 2002-12 projections

Since the publication of the Bureau's most recent set of projections, coveting the 2000-10 period, the U.S. economy entered a recession in March 2001 and has been in recovery since December of the same year. One of the hallmark features of the recovery period from December 2001 to August 2003 was the continued net employment losses after the official end of the recession. The term job-loss recovery has been used to describe that aspect of the economy whereby significant output gains and strong labor productivity occurred together with continued contraction in employment. The juxtaposition of the BLS long-run projections, which assume an economy operating at capacity, with this most recent experience in job losses is striking--enough to ask, "To what extent are the current projections influenced by the events of the last recession and the current recovery?"

While the model presented in the text projects a secular trend instead of pinpointing cyclical downturns or upturns, the trend is certainly affected to a degree by the current position of the economy. The long-run-growth trajectory of an economy that is in its ninth year of recovery or expansion, as the 2000-10 projections assume, may certainly look different from the long-run-growth trajectory associated with an economy in its fast year of recovery, as the 2002-12 projections presuppose. But how much different? The growth rate projected for GDP for the 2000-10 period was 3.4 percent per year, compared with the 3.0 percent projected for the 2002-12 period. The model presented in the text implies a 5.2-percent long-run unemployment rate in the current projections, higher than the 4.0 percent postulated in the previous set of projections. Labor productivity is also somewhat lower, at 2.1 percent for the 2002-12 projections, compared with the 2.4-percent annual growth rate assumed in the 2000-10 projections. Although a more detailed comparison will reveal other differences, in general, the long-run growth trajectory in the current set of projections is not quite as strong as in the previous set, reflecting, to a certain extent, the impact of the last recession.

Michael W. Horrigan is Assistant Commissioner, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. E-mail: Horrigan_Michael@bls.gov
COPYRIGHT 2004 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Title Annotation:Employment outlook, 2002-12; statistical data included
Author:Horrigan, Michael W.
Publication:Monthly Labor Review
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:Feb 1, 2004
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