Employment in Valley to lead L.A. County, according to forecast.

Job growth in the San Fernando Valley economy will lead L.A. County in 2004, continuing a trend that began last year, according to an economic forecast by California State University, Northridge.

The forecast projects that the Valley will add 11,000 new jobs in 2004 and 2005, accounting for 1.7 percent of the area's total employment.

"I was a little bit surprised," said Dan Blake, director of CSUN's Economic Research Center, which prepared the report. "I didn't think it would be that strong in 2003. It clearly got a good start in 2003 and that is continuing."

Most of that growth will come from the professional and business services sector, health care, information services and the entertainment industry. Temporary jobs will make up the bulk of hiring in the professional and business services sector, which is expected to add 4,400 jobs in 2004, compared to 1,400 jobs that were added in the sector in 2003.

The health services sector, which in 2003 added 2,800 jobs, is expected to add that same number of positions this year.

During 2003, the Valley added 6,247 jobs, three times as many as were added in the prior year, for an average of 660,673 jobs over the year. That compares with only 2,004 jobs added in 2002.

Some of that growth came from areas expected to decline this year. The leisure sector, for example, which includes hospitality, restaurants, arts and entertainment, picked up 2,500 jobs in 2003 but will drop about 800 jobs this year.

The Valley is expected to benefit from the varied mix of businesses it houses as well as an anticipated upturn in the county economy overall.

The Valley's recovery has not only outpaced the county to date, it also runs counter to a statewide trend that shows California's job growth lagged well behind that of the nation.

Among the reasons: Northern California's weak economy and expenses related to the state's health insurance and workers' compensation costs, Blake said.